Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper), Catalonia may be moving away from its pursuit of independence, known as the “Procés,” after the recent elections for the autonomous parliament. In these elections, the Socialists, who also govern Spain, emerged victorious under their candidate, former Spanish health minister Salvador Illa. The independence parties, which had previously held a referendum on secession from Spain in 2017, no longer hold a majority in the new parliament.
Carles Puigdemont, who has been living in exile since 2017 when he was deposed by Madrid, saw his hopes of returning to lead the autonomous government dashed. Despite an improved showing for his party, Together for Catalonia (Junts), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) suffered a severe defeat. ERC’s candidate, Pere Aragonès, had called for early elections after his minority government failed to secure approval for the budget.
“Today marks the beginning of a new stage for Catalonia,” declared Salvador Illa to his enthusiastic supporters on election night. The Socialists secured 28% of the vote, translating to 42 of the 135 seats, an increase of nine seats compared to 2021. Junts came in second with 21.6% of the vote and 35 seats, three more than in the previous election. “It is up to the Socialists to lead this new stage,” Illa asserted, promising to govern for all Catalans, regardless of their political views. He expressed his intention to start negotiations with other parties immediately to build a parliamentary majority of 68 MPs.
Achieving this majority will be challenging. The Socialists’ most likely ally, the left-wing alternative Comuns, holds only six seats, two fewer than in 2021. Therefore, support from ERC, which garnered only 13.7% of the vote and lost 13 of its 33 seats, would be essential. However, Aragonès announced on election night that ERC would move to the opposition and abstain from participating in any government. Taking personal responsibility for the electoral loss, he declared his withdrawal from politics the following day.
Mathematically, a coalition between the Socialists and Junts could form a majority, but politically, the two parties stand on opposite ends of the spectrum. With the independence supporters losing their parliamentary majority, Junts’ leader Carles Puigdemont remarked on election night about a strategy of “Spanish assimilation” triumphing.
Salvador Illa, the Socialist leader, finds himself positioned alongside the Spanish right-wing parties in this new political arrangement. The far-right VOX party secured 11 seats, while the conservative Partido Popular (PP) increased its representation to 15 seats, gaining 12 more seats than in the previous election. Some of these gains came at the expense of the right-wing liberal Ciutadans (Citizens), who failed to secure any seats in the new parliament.
Puigdemont, undeterred, boldly claimed the right to form the government himself, although he did not elaborate on how he would accomplish this with a parliament where only 61 of the members supported independence. Besides Junts and ERC, the anti-capitalist CUP won four seats, five fewer than in 2021, and the far-right Aliança Cat made its debut in the parliament with two seats.
This scenario is not new to Illa, who had already garnered the most votes in the autonomy elections back in February 2021. Despite his victory, he did not become the autonomous president then because Junts, ERC, and CUP had a clear majority with their combined 74 seats, allowing ERC to govern first in coalition with Junts and later on its own.
For Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Illa’s victory is a significant achievement. Sánchez has long advocated for reconciliation with Catalonia, a region marked by its contentious push for independence. His efforts included pardoning pro-independence politicians and activists who had been imprisoned for their roles in the 2017 referendum. Moreover, Sánchez negotiated an amnesty agreement with ERC and Junts to protect hundreds of individuals, including Puigdemont, from prosecution. This amnesty is set to take effect at the end of the month and has secured the crucial support Sánchez needed to maintain his left-wing coalition’s minority government in Madrid.
As Salvador Illa embarks on forming a government, the challenges ahead are substantial, and the coming weeks will be critical in shaping Catalonia’s future. Bridging the deep political divides within Catalonia will require delicate negotiation and compromise. The decline of the independence movement’s parliamentary influence may signal a shift towards more pragmatic governance, prioritizing economic stability and social cohesion over separatist ambitions. Still, Illa’s ability to forge alliances and govern effectively will determine whether this new chapter brings a period of reconciliation and progress, or if it will further entrench the divisions that have defined Catalan politics in recent years. The political landscape is changing, and with it, the hopes and aspirations of the Catalan people.
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