Moscow (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – Fighting has intensified in Ukraine since Russia launched a full-scale attack and has slowly expanded the amount of territory it controls.
The Russo-Ukrainian War started in February 2014 with Russian forces occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine forces. Russia supported pro-Kremlin factions fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War. In continuation of this in February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and started occupying more of the country. It prompted the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. The conflict between the two countries has resulted in a refugee problem and tens of thousands of deaths.
At the beginning of Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, Western countries—France, Germany, the UK, and most importantly the USA—believed that President Zelensky’s regime would collapse soon. At the start of the war, the main goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin was to capture Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and install a pro-Russian leader in the city. However, More than 1,000 days have passed, but the capital of Ukraine is still in the hands of the Ukrainian government and armed forces. There is a common perception that the reason the Ukrainian government has not collapsed is due to the extensive aid from its Western partners. However, the country has lost nearly 20 per cent of its territory and tens of thousands of residents. Moreover, Russian forces continue to advance, and there are fewer chances of concluding the war anytime soon.
Latest Situation
In the latest situation, Moscow had launched a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in reaction to the US and UK letting Kyiv utilise advanced Western weaponry at targets inside Russia. Ukraine hit Russia employing US-made long-range ATACMS missiles for the first time. Russia’s forces are attempting to push out Ukrainian soldiers who occupy approximately 600 sq km of Russian territory. Ukraine was in despairing need of the latest weaponry as its frontline clips and Russian forces made gains on the battleground at a faster rate than at any point since 2022.
In August this year, Ukraine captured parts of Russia’s Kursk region in a surprise attack, however, after making steady advancements in the region, Ukrainian soldiers started to lose the region there in October. The attack has come at the expense of territory in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk territory. Russia has mustered a force of approximately 50,000 soldiers, including 10,000 from North Korea, in a fresh endeavour to force the Ukrainians out of Kursk. Losing Kursk would restrain Zelenskyy from a useful bargaining chip in any upcoming discussions with Russia. The appearance of North Korean troops was noted by US officials as a reason for President Biden showing the green light for Ukraine to employ long-range ATACMS missiles to strike inside Russia.
According to experts, the Kremlin’s attack has become a war of attrition, with both flanks rubbing it out from labyrinth trenches and a frontline extending more than 1,000km, from the southern Kherson area to Kharkiv in the northeast. Military officials, soldiers and analysts express the next few months will be a critical stage in the war, as Ukraine tries to stabilise its defences and boost its eastern position in case it is pushed by Trump into talks with Putin.
Ukraine is expecting to restrict Russia’s offensive and capture the initiative by the time Trump takes office, as senior officials think confirming they are “fighters” and “winners” will assist persuade the president-elect to stand by them. But Ukrainian officials confess that they are struggling to hold back the more extensive and better-equipped Russian army amid manpower deficiencies and have plans to draft additional troops, though steps to attract recruits are being hindered by military service being open-ended.
Moreover, Putin has stated he would only be interested in talks if Kyiv assumes all his demands, including extending the Russian occupation to the whole of four Ukrainian regions. With impetus in Moscow’s favour and the Ukrainians in pullback, the Kremlin has few grounds to sit for peace talks now. Since August, Russia has seized more than 1,200 sq km in Ukraine, according to Deep State, a Ukrainian combat tracking group close to the defence ministry double the territory Kyiv’s troops currently hold in the Kursk region.
Likely Outcomes and the Future of Conflict
Russia presently occupies around 20% of internationally recognized Ukraine. By a territorial metric, it is succeeding. However, Russia has certainly failed a whole lot, as well. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, forming a larger border with a union Russia notices as a threat. It’s lost hundreds of thousands of men and tens of thousands of vehicles, which are unlikely to ever be fully restocked given Russia’s falling pre-war population and the lack of Soviet resources and industry. It’s largely declined itself on an international stage and demonstrated its military, once thought to be the second most influential on Earth, to be a paper tiger.
On the other hand, Ukraine presently occupies Kursk and has thoroughly offended the former second-most powerful military in the world. Western assistance continues to pour into the country and there will likely be meaningful security guarantees and economic aid postwar, in whatever way the war concludes. Also, at this point, the war will likely end in some sort of tentative truce, leaving much of the internationally recognized Ukraine in the hands of the Russians.
