Brussels (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – On January 20, 2025 Donald Trump is moving back to the White House. The US – Canada relationship might be on the line.
Since his re-election, Donald Trump has worried the world with his expansionist goals, tariff threats, views on immigration and political ambitions. Canada is one of the countries that might be affected by them the most, especially on trade.
Trump recently called the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “Governor” and his country “the 51st state.” The next US President also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming from Canada and Mexico. The condition to avoid it is securing the shared borders and stopping the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants in the United States, he said.
Canada responded with firm words to these attacks.
There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada will become a part of the United States,
wrote Trudeau on his social media accounts. Although, on a practical level, that is very unlikely, the country is still struggling to prepare for the tariff that might come on January 20.
Canada’s political chaos, in short
In December 2024, Trudeau’s approval rate reached a new low point, 22%, also because of the rise of the costs of housing and food. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, have been leading the polls for over a year. They’ve been attacking and blaming him and his administration non-stop with videos on social media, catchy slogans and burning questions in the House of Commons.
On Dec. 16, 2024, Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland surprised the cabinet and resigned. She had been “at odds” with Trudeau “about the best path forward for Canada.” Then, members of the Liberal Party started to ask for a leadership change, and national media joined them in the effort.
This culminated with Trudeau’s resignation as party leader on January 6, 2025. His replacement will be announced on March 9, meanwhile Parliament is suspended until March 24. After that, a confidence vote is likely to trigger a nationwide election.
Canada’s oil exports: a strength or a weakness?
Almost all Canada’s oil (97%) is exported to the US, 87% of which comes from the Conservative province of Alberta, represented by Premier Danielle Smith.
After meeting in person with elected President Trump last week, Smith told CBC News, the Canadian national broadcaster, that the tariff threat is real and the country needs to be ready by January 20.
Canada’s great oil production could be used as leverage in upcoming negotiations. On that, Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly said that, if the tariff will really be imposed, Canada is prepared to respond. “Everything is on the table.”
However, all the provinces are on board with this retaliatory approach but Alberta.
Stop threatening the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Albertans and Canadians via an energy export tax or ban,
wrote Premier Smith on X on Jan. 16. “Let’s diversify our customer base to Europe, Asia and our own country.”
What to expect next?
It is not possible to state with absolute certainty whether Trump will actually start this trade war or not. The tariff would particularly damage Canadian businesses, but it will raise the costs for U.S. companies and customers as well.
If that were to happen, Ottawa might respond with an export ban, and if elections happen in spring and the Conservatives win, it will try to inaugurate new partnerships with European and Asian countries. After the first few tough months, it seems like there could be ways out for Canada.
As Conservative leader Poilievre said, Trump is a man who can “spot weakness from a mile away.” Canada needs to present itself strong and ready. So, on January 20, will it be able to put its internal battles aside and be ready to defend itself? Will Poilievre stop publicly undermining the Liberal government and foster a united front? And is the Trudeau administration going to be able to deliver on its promise to defend Canadians’ interests at all costs?
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