We are heading to a new military conflict, but not in Europe. It is inevitable that the USA and China will clash militarily whether directly or by proxy (a remilitarized Japan) and not only over Taiwan.
Whenever old empires and superpowers (such as the British Empire and the USA) decline and new ones (such as China) emerge, there is an inevitable period of geopolitical instability, friction, and conflict.
But, in the long run, Trump is a new proponent of Kissinger’s realpolitik and this portends a long period of stability and peace worldwide.
The EU, NATO, and Europe are no longer relevant. Europe is poorer than the USA and is being overtaken by China. European militaries are a joke. Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for its energy needs. The USA reverted to its original, Pacific, orientation, forsaking the Atlantic interlude of 1917-2024.
As the USA withdraws from the Atlantic alliance, Europe will be forced to fit within the sphere of influence of Russia and to enhance economic ties with China.
What about the periphery of Europe: the Balkans, Georgia, etc.?
As I have been saying since 1996, the EU never had any intention of absorbing the impoverished and chaotic polities of the Balkans and of the periphery. Now, that Russia is emerging as the dominant power in Europe, these territories will become client regions under its sway.
Vance’s speech had nothing to do with “values”: it was an attempt to boost the political fortunes of the far-right movements in Europe and the electoral chances of Conservative parties in countries like the UK. It was a typically American blatant and illegitimate interference in the internal affairs of other nation-states.
But this is as far as the USA will go. Now, it has way more urgent matters to attend to.
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