Keir Starmer’s tightrope amid domestic and international flux

Dr. Imran Khalid
Credit: AFP

A little over a month after marking his first 100 days in office, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finds himself managing the unpredictable twists and turns of governance. So far, he has been having a mixed ride. Among the early trials of his tenure, the August riots across several UK cities, sparked by the murder of three young girls in Southport, stand out as a stark reminder of the fragility of social order and financial unertainty at home.  With a commanding majority in the House of Commons, Labour is poised to remain in office until at least 2028 or 2029, and possibly beyond if re-elected. This month’s budget could define not only the coming year but potentially set the tone for the next decade. Central to Labour’s agenda is a commitment to sustained public sector investment, tied to economic growth. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is recalibrating fiscal rules to unlock billions in borrowing for long-term investments, while maintaining a pledge to reduce debt relative to GDP – a bold strategy that could reshape Britain’s economic future. If successful, this strategy could redefine Britain’s economic trajectory for years to come.

After 14 grueling years of Conservative mismanagement, defined by the Brexit fiasco, crumbling public services, and a spiraling cost of living, the British public had one clear demand: change. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, rode that wave of discontent into office with a resounding 172-seat majority. Yet, it was never going to be as simple as flipping a switch. Expectations of an instant turnaround were always overly optimistic. To their credit, Starmer and his team have hit the ground running – albeit with more than a few stumbles along the way. Labour’s cautious approach during the campaign, refusing to over-promise, is now being tested against the realities of governance. It’s not glamorous, but it’s work that needs doing. The electorate’s decision to oust the Conservatives wasn’t just about policy – it was a repudiation of a party mired in incompetence and corruption, seen as serving the few over the many. Labour was handed not just power, but a mandate for transformation. With such a commanding majority, Starmer’s government has the rare opportunity to implement its agenda without obstruction. The question now is whether Labour can meet the sky-high expectations of a nation desperately seeking competence and vision.

Yet, the most immediate tests for Starmer’s Labour government may well originate on the international stage. The prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency casts a long shadow over the geopolitical horizon. For Britain’s Labour leader, Keir Starmer, it could usher in a series of daunting challenges to the “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U.K. Trump’s unpredictable approach to governance could ripple across crucial domains, from economic policies and sanctions to climate commitments and military entanglements in hotspots like Ukraine and the Middle East. The previous Trump era, from 2017 to 2021, was marked by tensions that tested the limits of transatlantic diplomacy. A second term could amplify those strains, with Trump’s penchant for upending established norms likely leading to even deeper divides. For Starmer, who may find himself navigating this volatile landscape, the options appear limited. The likely path forward would involve shelving ideological differences in favor of a pragmatic approach – one that prioritizes forging a transactional partnership where collaboration is possible.

This uneasy recalibration of relations would demand Starmer’s political acumen. As Trump leans into a “America First” rhetoric, Starmer may need to temper his ambitions for a globally cooperative Britain, focusing instead on managing a relationship that could be as fraught as it is essential. The stakes are high, with the potential to reshape the contours of U.S.-U.K. relations for years to come. Keir Starmer faces a complex challenge in managing Britain’s relationship with a second Trump presidency. To navigate these uncertain waters, Starmer would do well to depend on the deep historical ties binding the U.K. and U.S.- connections forged through shared values in culture, religion, law, and economics. At the core of this partnership lies a tradition of security cooperation, particularly in intelligence and defense, that has underpinned the transatlantic alliance for decades.

In 2023, Britain emerged as Europe’s top military spender, signaling its commitment to playing a pivotal role in regional security. A defense review commissioned by Starmer’s government is likely to advocate for increasing defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP, up from its current estimate of 2.3 percent. This move would aim to reassure Washington of Britain’s seriousness on matters of collective security, sending a clear message to Trump should he return to the White House. Yet, Starmer must tread carefully. Trump’s transactional “America First” ethos leaves little room for sentimental alliances. While Britain’s strategic importance is undeniable, Starmer cannot count on Trump to prioritize British interests unless they align with his own agenda. For Starmer, managing this dynamic will require pragmatism, resilience, and a keen sense of how to make Britain’s case in a turbulent geopolitical climate.The stakes are high, particularly as the shadow of a potential second Trump presidency looms large. The stark contrast is evident in the U.S., where Joe Biden’s administration, despite a string of achievements, was disparaged by Trump, contributing to Kamala Harris’s clear defeat in the recent election. Starmer is keenly aware of the volatility such dynamics inject into international affairs.

Against the backdrop of mounting global uncertainty, Keir Starmer has devoted unprecedented attention to foreign policy during his early months as prime minister. His November schedule reflects this focus, featuring trips to Azerbaijan for COP29 and Brazil for the G20 summit. Yet, Starmer knows he cannot afford to let his domestic priorities falter. On the home front, Starmer’s ambition to reimagine the U.K. as a “clean energy superpower” highlights his government’s long-term vision. Initiatives like the launch of Great British Energy, a state-owned green electricity generator, and the reversal of a Conservative ban on onshore wind farms signal progress. Yet these are down payments on what will be a generational transformation. Labour’s sweeping agenda demands sustained focus amid international turbulence. While Starmer commands a commanding majority in the Commons, the success of his program may ultimately hinge on external forces, including the disruptions a Trump-led U.S. could bring to the global stage.

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Brussels Morning is a daily online newspaper based in Belgium. BM publishes unique and independent coverage on international and European affairs. With a Europe-wide perspective, BM covers policies and politics of the EU, significant Member State developments, and looks at the international agenda with a European perspective.
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Imran Khalid is a geostrategic analyst and columnist on international affairs. His work has been widely published by prestigious international news organizations and publications.
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