Belgium (Brussels Morning newspaper) As the Gaza Strip bears the brunt of continuous airstrikes, the world watches with growing apprehension over Israel’s planned invasion of Northern Gaza. On October 13, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a 24-hour ultimatum to Gaza’s residents, signaling their intent to launch a ground military operation aimed at dismantling Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Yet, two weeks have passed, and Israeli troops remain poised at the Israeli-Gaza border, awaiting orders to commence their operation to eradicate Hamas.Â
The question that looms large is, what is Israel waiting for?
Israeli Prime Minister has been unequivocal about his determination to move forward with the ground invasion of Gaza, a sentiment echoed by a significant segment of Israeli society demanding justice and retribution for the victims of the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas.
The United States and Western European nations expressed support for Israel. The U.S. dispatched an aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean and announced a military support package for Israel. However, concerns have gradually emerged regarding the humanitarian fallout of an invasion. The U.S. has taken diplomatic steps to defuse the crisis, openly expressing skepticism about Israel’s announced plan to invade Northern Gaza.Â
The US has initiated a diplomatic effort for the end of the crisis and has openly shared its skepticism about Israel’s announcement. It did however send an aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean and announce a military support package for Israel.
The Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, remains at an impasse. Pressure mounts from the U.S. and Western Europe, urging the Israeli government to avoid further escalation and postpone the planned ground operation. Their primary concerns center around the following risks associated with an Israeli invasion of Gaza:
Humanitarian Catastrophe
The Gaza Strip already grapples with a dire humanitarian crisis marked by energy, food, and water shortages, alongside a heavy toll of casualties from Israel’s continuous airstrikes. With more than 6,000 fatalities, including over 2,000 children, and over 12,000 injuries, a ground operation in one of the world’s most densely populated regions could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and trigger a refugee crisis that may destabilize neighboring Egypt and the European South.
Emergence of a New Muslim Coalition Against Israel
The response of major Arab states to the Israel-Hamas conflict is intriguing. Despite their condemnation of Israel, it is evident that they are not inclined to reignite tensions with Tel Aviv, nor do they wish to align themselves with Hamas. Nevertheless, the ongoing destruction of the Gaza Strip and a ground operation by Israeli forces may trigger a non-military Islamic coalition against Israel. This coalition could involve not only Arab states but also Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and other Muslim nations. This development poses challenges to the Arab-Israeli peace process and potentially threatens the security of the State of Israel. It’s also a situation that Russia might exploit to serve its interests in the region and keep the West distracted from Ukraine.
Conflict Spillover and Fears of a Regional War
Concerns persist that an invasion of Gaza and the loss of hundreds of civilian lives could provide a pretext for Iran’s proxies in the region to attack Israel. Reports of small-scale clashes between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese and Israeli-Syrian borders have emerged. These skirmishes could escalate into a full-fledged war between Israel and the so-called Axis of Resistance, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran.Â
While direct Iranian involvement is unlikely, Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq have the capacity to initiate unconventional warfare against Israel. Additionally, the complete devastation of Gaza City may incite a new armed Intifada in the West Bank, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences for Israel, Palestine, and neighboring countries, particularly Lebanon.
Escalation of Attacks Against U.S. Bases
Since the conflict’s outset, U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq have been targeted by pro-Iranian militias. Further escalation of the conflict could result in more attacks on American targets in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Iraq. This would present challenges for U.S. policies in Syria and Iraq, which focus on the war on terror and deterring Russia and Iran.
Rising Energy Prices:
Global oil market prices have been on the rise for two consecutive weeks since the Hamas attack on Israel. An escalation of the war may exert additional pressure on global energy markets. Firstly, the U.S. may consider imposing more sanctions on Iran’s oil exports due to its strong connections with Hamas and Hezbollah. Secondly, major Arab oil exporters like Saudi Arabia, and notably Qatar, a major supporter of Hamas, may curtail their oil output in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza. This wouldn’t be the first time that oil-rich Arab states triggered an energy crisis; during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Arab nations imposed an oil embargo on countries supporting Israel. Furthermore, an escalation of the conflict post-Gaza invasion could raise security concerns regarding Iran’s activities in the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for transporting over 20% of the world’s oil consumption and one-third of all global onshore gas shipments, leading to a surge in oil prices.
The concerns about the consequences of an Israeli ground operation in Northern Gaza extend beyond the U.S. and Europe. Opposition within Israel is growing, driven by several factors:
Hostages
There are over 200 Israeli and foreign hostages in Gaza. An Israeli ground operation may endanger these hostages, who could be used as human shields or face execution by Hamas or the PIJ.
A Difficult and Costly Operation
A ground operation in Gaza City, despite Israel’s technological advantages, presents formidable challenges. It entails navigating complex tactical conditions in densely populated urban areas, involving street-to-street and room-to-room combat, as well as tunnel warfare. These conditions could result in significant casualties for the Israeli forces.
Post-Hamas Power Vacuum
Eliminating Hamas will leave a significant power vacuum in the Gaza Strip. What unfolds after the operation is a matter of critical concern. How will the Palestinian Authority assert control in the Gaza Strip? Will Israel maintain a military presence in the region? These questions remain unanswered. While the Israeli forces may succeed in dismantling the Hamas regime and its military capabilities, the future remains uncertain. The Palestinian Authority is weak, and Israel’s occupation of Northern Gaza may lead to further complications and radicalization among Palestinians.
In conclusion, Israel finds itself in a precarious situation. The initial shock caused by the barbaric October 7 attack within the international community appears to be fading, replaced by images of Gaza’s destruction. This presents a daunting challenge for Israel and the Netanyahu government. The Israeli Prime Minister is acutely aware that canceling the announced operation in Gaza could result in continued terrorist threats from Hamas and jeopardize his political career. However, proceeding with the invasion could strain international support for Israel and potentially open new fronts with Hezbollah in Northern Lebanon.
