Nowruz, the Iranian New Year that begins on the first day of spring (March 21), traditionally marks a moment of renewal and reflection. This year, however, it marks something far more consequential: the unraveling of the Tehran regime’s decades-long strategy for survival.
In his New Year’s address, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei drew a telling parallel between the year 1403 in the Iranian calendar (2024–2025) and the year 1981 (1360), stating:
“The year 1403 was full of turmoil… like the challenges we faced in 1360 (1981) — a difficult and painful time for us.”
In 1981, facing mass protests and the fragility of its newly established rule, the regime responded with brute force — opening fire on peaceful demonstrators and executing thousands of political prisoners. That year marked a turning point that allowed the Islamic Republic to violently consolidate power. Khamenei’s reference to 1981 is not just symbolic. It signals the regime’s deep anxiety that history may soon repeat — but with a different outcome.
A Three-Pillar Strategy in Ruins
Following the Iran-Iraq War, the regime anchored its long-term survival strategy on three deterrent pillars:
- A sophisticated ballistic missile program
- A network of proxy forces across the region
- A covert nuclear weapons program
To build these pillars, the regime siphoned the nation’s wealth — impoverishing over 80% of the population. The nuclear program alone is estimated to have cost Iran more than $2 trillion.
Yet by the end of 1403 (March 2025), two of the three pillars have crumbled:
- Proxy forces such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have been pushed to the sidelines. Financial support is faltering, and battlefield relevance has sharply declined.
- Missile capability has been exposed as ineffective. In response to Israeli strikes, Iran’s highly publicized “Sadegh-1” and “Sadegh-2” missiles failed to demonstrate real destructive power.
This leaves only one leg standing: the nuclear program — and the world is no longer willing to tolerate it.
A Hard Deadline
Today, both the United States — under Donald Trump’s leadership — and Europe are united in demanding that Iran abandons its nuclear ambitions with enforceable guarantees. Trump’s two-month ultimatum is about to expire. By July, the snapback mechanism under the UN framework may automatically be reactivated, reinstating global sanctions.
Tehran faces a critical choice: abandon its nuclear program and negotiate or brace for targeted airstrikes. And while President Trump has said he does not seek war, any military operation to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — much of which lies buried deep underground — would not be short, clean, or easy. If it begins, it could continue all the way to the edge of regime collapse.
This is why both Tehran and the international community prefer a diplomatic solution — including indirect talks. Iran seeks negotiations, not to reform, but to buy time and use Europe as a political buffer, as it did in the 2015 nuclear deal.
The Real Threat Comes from Within
But beyond foreign pressure, the regime faces an even greater threat from within. With a collapsing economy and widespread poverty, Iran is a powder keg. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has eliminated Tehran’s so-called “strategic depth,” and the true battlefield has shifted inside Iran.
Thousands of resistance units affiliated with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) are active across the country. These groups are not foreign-funded or exiled movements. They are embedded in local neighborhoods and cities — drawn from within Iranian society itself. Despite an intense climate of surveillance, they successfully carried out 33 Operations in Tehran and 22 Other Cities, Setting Fire to IRGC Centers and Symbols of the Clerical Regime During the Fire Festival Campaign*
Any spark could trigger a full-scale uprising. These resistance networks are prepared to channel protest into revolution.
The high number of executions in the year 1403 (2023–2024) — with over 1,150 recorded cases — reflects a desperate attempt by the regime to instill fear in society. However, these acts of repression have not silenced the public; on the contrary, they have further fueled the growth of the resistance.
Under such conditions, many analysts are now speaking of the regime entering a “tipping point.” In other words, the transition to a secular republic based on gender equality is no longer a dream — it has become an attainable goal. The year 1403 was the year the regime found itself surrounded, and now all eyes are on 1404 — a year that could mark a historic turning point for Iran.
What Tehran Wants in Return
Tehran is now maneuvering for survival. Its demands in any negotiation are twofold:
- Partial relief from sanctions to stabilize its crumbling economy.
- Political cover from the West to marginalize the NCRI and other opposition groups that pose the only real threat to its rule.
But there is a catch.
To repair its economy and prevent unrest, Tehran must allow a degree of reform: easing repression, curbing mass arrests, and creating conditions that allow for investment. In doing so, the regime would necessarily open limited political space — which, in turn, risks unleashing pent-up dissent and igniting the very uprising it fears most.
The regime is trapped. What it needs to do to survive economically will accelerate its political demise.
Forty-five years of repression cannot be buried under layers of censorship and bullets forever. If the lid of control is loosened, even slightly, the voices of millions will rise. The opposition is organized. The international community is alert. The people are ready.
The Endgame
the Tehran regime, however, on the one hand, has learned from the experience of Iran’s last Shah before the revolution — and therefore absolutely refuses to allow any political openness or path for internal reform. On the other hand, like Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, it is not willing to give up its nuclear project, which it has tied directly to the regime’s survival. As such, backing down from the nuclear program would be like drinking a poisoned chalice. This is similar to how Ayatollah Khomeini described accepting the ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq War as “drinking poison.”
However, at that time, Khomeini was able to preserve his rule by massacring 30,000 political prisoners and terrorizing society — preventing it from holding him accountable for six years of a fruitless war that caused one million deaths and injuries and cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
But such a genocide is beyond Khamenei’s current capacity — and society will not allow it to happen. Iran’s Year 1403 has not been a repeat of 1981. It has been the beginning of the end.
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