“We could have achieved so much more if we had acted united right away.”
Belgium, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) This week marks one year of war in Ukraine. An invasion that Putin said would be over after three days turned into an endless drama. But what have we, as Europeans, done or learned in the past year? What does our reaction to Putin’s private war say about our common project, European unification?
It started hopefully. Crises traditionally catalyze European integration, and the EU reacted remarkably firmly to this one: weapons were supplied with European funding, sanctions decided immediately, large-scale financial and economic support, and immediately Ukraine received the prospect of European membership.
But then the momentum just stopped. For military support, Ukraine mainly relies on the US. If Europe sends weapons, it concerns diverse weapon systems that require different types of ammunition and training – matters for which a country at war has no time. Yes, European countries have increased their defense spending, but less than a fifth covers cooperative projects and joint investments. Europe can no longer afford this fragmentation. A European army has become a natural necessity, integrated from procurement and intelligence to planning and boots on the ground.
Sanctions also proved inadequate. We know who is sustaining Putin’s regime. There is a list of more than six thousand people responsible in the major sectors of Russian society. But after nine or ten packages, only a quarter of them are on the European list. Less than the British or Americans. And this while Putin’s focus on the war economy underscores Russia’s sensitivity. We could have achieved so much more if we had acted united and firmly right from the start.
The same is true when it comes to the impact the conflict had on our economy; the energy was evidently crucial from the start. We had known for years that we were overly and irresponsibly dependent on Russian gas and oil. Nordstrom II was emblematic of that. But even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, we did not change course. That has cost us dearly: rising energy prices, soaring inflation, and severely strained industrial competitiveness. But the geopolitical cost is equally high. Putin had us right where he wanted us: dependent, scared, and weak. It took 11 months to complete an oil embargo and more than a year for a ban on refined petroleum products, and even then, all sorts of exceptions remain. The oligarchs laugh at us, quite literally, as many can still spend their holidays in their villas in Venice or on their yachts in Ibiza.
And yet, we still do not have a proper European energy union with joint procurement, joint investment, shared grids, and organized solidarity. We will continue to suffer if we do not establish a bloc on energy.
Economically, you see the same story. Now that the pressure has increased you notice how weak we are against the Americans and the Chinese. They operate on a continental scale while we all too often remain fragmented along national borders. Europe develops a lot of technology, but it is America that turns it into profitable products. Because our digital markets are fragmented. Because our investments are too divergent. Because we have twenty-seven regulators, and they have just one.
Each time, the problem turns out not to be military. The problem is not even external, instead, it is internal politics: a divided Union is a weak Union. And in today’s world, that is a concrete, costly, self-inflicted handicap.
Putin’s men
The political divisions inside Europe have become painfully visible. Russia has already lost the military battle, but it is winning the propaganda war. Because Putin’s discourse is cheerfully reinforced on the left and right political spectrum. In Germany, the AfD claims that Germans do not want solidarity with Ukraine, but it’s the mainstream media that imposes it on them. In the Netherlands, the Forum for Democracy claims that the images we see from war zones are fake news, and that “no big things are happening” in Ukraine. From Italy, Berlusconi points the finger at Zelensky, not Putin, and calls on Biden to withdraw US aid. And the greatest danger comes from Hungary, where Prime Minister Orbán has been applying the brakes all year against anything that might hinder his friend and role model, Putin.
No more illusions: Putin is fighting against everything Europe stands for: peace and freedom, the rule of law, and democracy. Ukraine is fighting our battle, and we owe it to them as well as to ourselves to stand with them.
The key lies in European politics. We can never go back to the world before. We must revisit, reinforce and unite Europe.
