Has Moscow faced a major setback in Moldova? It is too early to answer this question definitively; however, one thing is certain: pro-EU forces have managed to ruffle Moscow’s feathers in this intense election battle, which is likely to impact Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. As expected, the incumbent Maia Sandu, a pro-Western leader and former World Bank economist, won the race in the country’s heated presidential run-off. Framed as a stark choice between Europe and Russia, the election catapulted Moldova’s political landscape into deep polarization. Sandu, who recently initiated EU accession talks, celebrated her win as a triumph of democracy, hailing her supporters’ decision as a move toward “freedom, truth, and justice.” As per preliminary results, Sandu won 55.33 percent against her opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, who received 44.67 percent. Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general backed by the pro-Russian Socialist Party, advocated both EU ties and cooperation with Russia.
Factually speaking, just weeks after narrowly endorsing a referendum to amend its constitution in favor of EU membership, Moldova has delivered a consequential verdict – albeit weak because the victory margin is very thin – in favor of Maia Sandu, the pro-Western leader steering the country toward Europe. Sandu’s election win came in the shadow of persistent allegations of Russian interference, with claims of meddling echoing through both the referendum and the presidential race – a reflection of the broader geopolitical tug-of-war gripping Eastern Europe as the war rages in neighboring Ukraine. Nonetheless, Sandu’s victory is a troubling development for Russian influence in the region. Ever since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, there has consistent efforts by Russia to maintain its grip on former Soviet states. And Moldova’s pro-European trajectory poses a direct challenge to Moscow’s ambitions.
Media reports suggest that the Kremlin made comprehensive attempt to sway the election in favor of Sandu’s pro-Russian opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo. This included all sort of rigging techniques as well as influencing the voters through money and other incentives. Maia Sandu’s national security adviser, Stanislav Secrieru, accused Moscow of orchestrating widespread interference in the recent vote. But, against the backdrop of Moscow’s alleged massive involvement in favour of Stoianoglo, the results of the second round have exposed the limits of Russian soft power there. In the first round on October 20, Sandu captured 50.3% votes and Stoianoglo got 49.57% votes – certainly an extremely thin margin which was stretched by Sandu to 55.33 vs. 44.67 in the second round. The result of second round mayhave raised many eyebrows in Moscow. Moldova’s geopolitical significance has been amplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Sandu’s re-election reinforced Moldova’s position as a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its struggle against Russian intrusion. Moldova has already provided substantial aid to Ukrainian refugees and imposed sanctions on Russia, actions that are likely to continue under Sandu’s leadership.
From Kyive’s perspective, Moldova’s stability and alignment with the West are crucial for Ukraine’s own security. A pro-European Moldova serves as a buffer against Russian expansionism. Sandu’s re-election ensures that Moldova will remain a reliable partner for Ukraine, bolstering the broader coalition of states opposing Russian aggression. However, Sandu and her political party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) have tough road ahead in the coming days. Her victory has exposed the deeply polarized Moldova. Her path to winning the presidency relied heavily on support from Moldovans abroad. While Sandu claimed nearly 270,000 overseas votes – predominantly from Western Europe and North America. But, in Moldova itself, Sandu trailed behind Stoianoglo, who outperformed her by around 30,000 votes. Sandu’s domestic support is primarily rooted in Moldova’s urban and central regions, especially the capital, Chisinau, where she captured 57% of the vote. Yet, this is a narrow base. Beyond Chisinau, Moldova’s north and south tell a different story. In Balti, Moldova’s second-largest city and a northern stronghold, Stoianoglo garnered 70% of the vote, while in the pro-Russian southern region of Gagauzia, Sandu managed less than 3%. Even in Transnistria, a region with historic ties to Moscow, Sandu secured only 20%. These regional divides underscore the challenges Sandu faces.
The spring 2025 parliamentary elections could pose a formidable test for Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). While Sandu herself commands significant personal support, PAS lacks her level of popularity, leaving the party more vulnerable in a high-stakes contest. With numerous seats in play, opportunities for Russian influence loom larger, offering Moscow a chance to reshape Moldova’s political landscape. For Sandu, maintaining her pro-European trajectory will demand not only her personal appeal but a strategy to bolster PAS’s standing against a likely wave of well-coordinated opposition – a challenge that may ultimately define her political legacy. One of the immediate priorities for Sandu will be to address the energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. She also faces many challenges including entrenched corruption, economic vulnerabilities, and the lingering threat of Russian interference. Sandu’s administration will need to navigate these challenges with skill and determination to maintain the country’s forward trajectory. Moldova’s energy infrastructure is closely linked with Ukraine’s, and Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities have had a spillover effect on Moldova. Ensuring energy security and diversifying energy sources will be critical for Moldova’s economic stability and resilience. Indubitably, Sandu’s re-election has broader implications for the region’s geopolitical landscape.
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