Brussels, 6 October, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – Gulf oil flows have staged a significant recovery, reaching about 81% of pre-war levels in September as stronger Saudi Arabian shipments helped restore supplies from one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions. The rebound offers global markets an important indication that Gulf exporters are rebuilding oil movements despite continuing disruption and security risks.
Saudi oil exports drive powerful Gulf rebound
Maritime analytics data showed shipments of crude oil, condensates and petroleum products from major Gulf exporters recovering substantially during September.
Vortexa data reported by Reuters put shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain at an average of around 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
That represented approximately 81% of the roughly 23.6 million bpd recorded before the war began on 28 February.
Saudi Arabia played a central role in the improvement. Separate Kpler data cited by Reuters indicated that Saudi crude and condensate exports reached about 6.6 million bpd during September.
Iraq also contributed to the regional recovery, with southern crude exports increasing during the month.
Crude shipments recover faster than refined fuels
The headline improvement does not mean Gulf energy exports have returned to normal.
Vortexa estimated that crude oil and condensate shipments recovered to roughly 91% of their previous level. Refined petroleum products, including liquefied petroleum gas, remained much weaker at around 60%.
That distinction matters for Europe and other major energy-importing markets because the Gulf supplies not only crude oil but also fuels and petroleum products used by industry, transport and consumers.
The figures indicate that the recovery remains uneven across different parts of the region’s energy supply chain.
Vortexa highlights continuing market volatility
Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman told Reuters that daily export volumes remained considerably more volatile than before the conflict, making the sustainability of recent shipment levels an important issue for the market.
That uncertainty means the September recovery should not be interpreted as a complete return to normal conditions.
Shipping companies, commodity traders and governments continue to monitor tanker traffic and regional security developments closely because disruption to Gulf exports can quickly affect international energy markets.
Why Gulf oil recovery matters for Europe
The improvement in Gulf oil flows has implications well beyond the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors. US Energy Information Administration data previously estimated that around 20.9 million bpd of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products passed through the waterway during the first half of 2025.
Europe is particularly sensitive to developments affecting international oil supplies because changes in crude and refined-product availability can influence wholesale energy costs, transport expenses and inflationary pressures.
A sustained restoration of Gulf exports could help reduce supply concerns. However, weaker refined-product shipments and continuing geopolitical risks mean European policymakers and energy markets are unlikely to treat September’s improvement as a full normalisation.
Gulf exporters face crucial test after September rebound
Attention will now turn to October shipping data to establish whether the recovery can continue.
The critical question is whether Saudi Arabia and neighbouring exporters can maintain stronger crude shipments while navigating persistent security and logistical challenges.
September nevertheless marked an important improvement. With regional exports back above four-fifths of their earlier level and crude shipments recovering considerably further, the latest figures provide one of the clearest indications yet that Gulf energy supplies are moving towards their previous capacity.
For Europe and the wider global economy, maintaining that recovery will be more important than the performance of any single month.
