Belgium, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) Montenegro’s decades-long battle to escape Russian influence and join the free nations of the Western alliance is once again in jeopardy. On April 2, the nation will choose as president either a man who helped secure the nation’s independence and its NATO membership or a candidate endorsed by the same forces who prefer that Montenegrins live under Serbian hegemony – a position favored by the Russian bear.
Though small in size and population, Montenegro’s alliance with NATO and its intention to join the European Union ensure NATO’s full control of the Adriatic Sea. This protects trade routes from the Italian cities of Trieste, Venice, and Padua and down through Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina to the north and Albania and Greece to the south. All but Bosnia-Herzegovina (which is aligned with NATO) are NATO members.
Montenegro, which is slightly smaller than Connecticut, had been an independent nation since the 1878 Congress of Berlin, and became a kingdom in 1910. But after World War I, the kingdom was absorbed into Yugoslavia after 1945. The Berlin wall fell in 1989, and by 1992 Serbian nationals had swept up Montenegro into a new Yugoslav state run by communist dictator Slobodan Milosevic.
Milosevic was ousted from power in a popular revolution in October 2000, and six years later a small majority of Montenegrins voted to end the federation with Serbia. The new country, led by Milo Djukanovic (who has served as both prime minister and president) and his Democratic Party of Socialists, was accepted as a NATO member in 2017 and has applied for full membership into the European Union. The Montenegrin parliament voted 46-0 in favor of NATO membership, but 35 pro-Russian lawmakers boycotted the vote, cheered on by hundreds of anti-NATO protesters.
These moves toward the West have not sat well in the Kremlin or with Russia-minded Serbs and Montenegrins, who in 2016 tried to overthrow the government in a failed coup. Russia’s ongoing interference in Montenegrin politics grew stronger after the 2020 general election that saw large pro-Moscow parties become part of the ruling coalition – some say thanks in part to over 50,000 “phantom” voters.
In the March 19 first ballot, Djukanovic received 35 percent of the vote, while Jakov Milatovic and his Europe Now! Party won 29 percent. Milatovic, however, has been endorsed by Andrija Mandic of the pro-Serbian Democratic Front, who won 19 percent of the vote. Mandic for this campaign had played down his long-time opposition to Montenegro’s alliance with the West. Now he boasts that, “the victory of our colleague Jakov Milatovic … is not possible” without that support.
Prior to the March 19 vote, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Gabriel Escobar, a career diplomat whose involvement in the Adriatic corridor dates to 1998, warned that Russia would try to intervene in the election to provoke internal tensions using traditional channels to spread disinformation. After Montenegro joined EU sanctions against Moscow, the Kremlin placed the nation on its list of unfriendly states.
While the office of President in Montenegro is today largely ceremonial (the Prime Minister has far more authority), this election is seen by many as a barometer for the June 11 elections for a parliament that was dissolved after the March 19 vote. The aftermath of the COVID pandemic and the Russian aggression against Ukraine (that has had ramifications across Europe) are among the reasons for the nation’s recent political instability.
Djukanovic hopes that, by winning the presidency one more time, he can shepherd his fledgling nation through the remaining hurdles toward EU membership. If Montenegro, however, continues its infighting, the nation will leave itself directly susceptible to further destabilization from Russian soft power and influence as the Kremlin seeks to regain its lost control of Eastern Europe.
Montenegro’s natural beauty is perhaps its chief attraction, as over 2 million tourists a year visit its mountains, beaches, and canyons (including Tara River Canyon, a UN World Heritage site since 1980; only the Grand Canyon is deeper). Tourism and the private sector led the nation to 6.9 percent economic growth in 2022, with tourism revenues bouncing back from the pandemic to just 50 million euros short of its all-time record of 1,047 million euros.
Back in 2017, Dukanovic called joining NATO his people’s most important decision in recent history “after long suffering and roaming throughout history.” NATO membership, he said then, places Montenegro “finally in the position where it logically, historically, civilization-wise, and culturally belongs.” Then-prime minister Dusko Markovic added that, “This day will be marked among the brightest in our history.”
Should Milatovic prevail – with help from the pro-Serbian Democratic Front – the likelihood is increased that the new parliament will be pressed to undermine Montenegro’s participation in NATO and its quest for EU membership. A defeat for Djukanovic could be seen as a rejection of U.S. influence as well, and it could also put additional pressure on Serbia to side with Moscow.
The stakes appear too high to bet on the fledgling Europe Now! Party, formed less than a year ago and with no history of governing a nation plagued by political infighting. As the presidential election may forecast the outcome of the parliamentary elections in June, it seems only right that the literal founder of the modern nation of Montenegro be allowed to finish his work to secure EU membership for his people.
