Brussels (Brussels Morning) – France is in an unprecedented state of political paralysis, with a hung parliament and a fragile government. The 2027 presidential elections now seem like an unmissable event for all of Europe.
A government on the brink
France is going through its most catastrophic political crisis of the 21st century, and the Vth Republic, a situation that has not resolved itself in the last 9th months and does not seem to be prone to a sudden resolution.
The legislative elections of 2024 resulted in a hung parliament where no single party holds an absolute majority – the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) holds 182 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition has 168 seats, and the far-right National Rally (RN) controls 143 seats, creating a three-player stalemate incompatible with the semi-presidentialism and bicameral parliament of the country. This fragmented landscape has made governance a near-impossible task, leading to two government collapses and the current government being under life support.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned in July 2024 following the legislative elections, and his successor, Michel Barnier, lasted only 91 days before being ousted in December 2024 through a no-confidence vote – the first successful one since 1962.
The current government, led by François Bayrou, uncomfortably survived two no-confidence votes in recent days, relying on a most fleeting support from both the Socialist Party and the RN in the name of “national stability”. Both parties have signaled they will withdraw their passive support once the 2025 budget is fully implemented.
The 2025 budget itself, a plan that cannot be skipped or delayed further, was passed through Article 49.3 of the French Constitution – allowing the government to bypass parliament – due to the impossibility of securing a legislative majority. It’s telling that the most crucial piece of French legislation to start the new year couldn’t even get two of the three main parties to find common ground.
Moreover, economic growth projections are bleak, with GDP expected to slow to 0.6%-0.9% in 2025, while the government deficit is forecast to reach between 5.3%-6.2% of GDP – well above EU limits.
Unsurprisingly, Brussels has therefore ramped up pressure on France to address its debt levels, and Moody’s recently downgraded the country’s credit rating which should have negative impact of foreign investment which is one of the last sectors where France is still a good student.
How did France get here?
The roots of this crisis trace back to President Macron’s decision to call for snap legislative elections following the European Parliament elections in June 2024. His intent was to counter the rising nationalist forces in France, hoping that the shock of the far-right’s strong performance in Europe would trigger a backlash similar to the 2002 presidential elections, when Jean-Marie Le Pen’s surprise advancement to the second round led to a near-universal rejection from voters.
In an effort to block the RN from securing an outright majority, a “Republican Front” coalition was formed between the center-left and centrist parties, including Ensemble and the NFP.
Through strategic withdrawals in key districts – known as “triangulaires” – left-wing and centrist candidates coordinated their votes to prevent a victory of the RN. While this tactic successfully denied the far-right an absolute majority, it created the unstable three-way split we are currently in, with no party or coalition reaching the 289 seats required to govern.
With no clear majority, and a “Front Populaire” that was solely created to stop the RN and not because of any compromises or ideological overlap between the parties, legislative paralysis set in.
The Attal government resigned, the Barnier government collapsed, and Bayrou’s administration now governs on borrowed time. Every major decision is a struggle, and the mere act of passing a budget has required emergency constitutional measures. France’s political system is now barely holding together.
France’s weakened global role
The domestic political chaos is already having repercussions beyond France’s borders, particularly on its role within the EU. With Germany facing its own political turbulence and government coalition collapse, the EU is left without its two most recognizable leaders, probably fragilizing its ability to address major challenges – it is hard to have a strong EU when it is not clear what kind of short-term repercussion could arise from potential France and Germany radical political shifts.
France’s role in international diplomacy is also at risk, particularly in times of war and geopolitical tensions with the USA, Russia and China. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, France cannot afford to be weak or unstable – yet that is exactly the position it finds itself in.
The upcoming trial verdict for Marine Le Pen on the 31st of March 2025, adds another layer of national uncertainty. If convicted, she may be barred from running in the 2027 presidential election, a particularly important information to keep in mind as she is currently the most likely frontrunner.
Such a ruling could open the door to further instability, potential protests, and even a broader questioning of what democracy really means in France – as we discussed previously, the French electorate has now witnessed the most popular French party be referred to as a danger for democracy, then barred from achieving a legislative majority due to a nationwide alliance against them, and finally the head of the party facing a potential exclusion for the next national elections… whether or not justified, this does not appear to be having the effect some to wish on the RN’s image.
Can France get its affairs in order?
Napoleon Bonaparte wrote in a letter to the military general Le Marois “Impossible is not French”. This saying became very famous in France and seems to embody the often controversial and brash French political spirit.
What is less known about this quote is that unfortunately the siege of Magdebourg, where the men of Le Marois were cornered, ended in a defeat for the French. While Napoleon, and symbolically France itself, have proven to be able to make the impossible happen in the past, it is also clear that the conceivable is not out of reach – the downfall of the Vth Republic seeming more and more like a conceivable future.
To restore stability to the country, the government must find a way to forge durable alliances within the National Assembly, rather than relying on tactical survival measures like article 49.3. A new political compromise, whether through an expanded coalition or if necessary, an electoral reform, seems like possible solutions meant to at the very least maneuver the country for the next two years.
As 2027 approaches, France stands at a crossroads. Either it finds a way to reassert control over its political destiny, or it risks paralysis until the next national elections at a time where most superpowers, such as the USA, Russia, and China, have been at their most aggressive in terms of foreign policies.
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