It seems French President Emmanuel Macron’s political gamble with snap elections is paying off well so far. His primary goal was to thwart the advance of the right-wing, and he has achieved this objective quite successfully. Following a humiliating defeat by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the European parliamentary elections in June, Macron’s sudden announcement of snap elections caught everyone off guard. The abrupt decision left even the then-Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance reeling in shock. The ranks of Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance were thrown into disarray, utterly shocked by the unexpected announcement of Macron. Le Pen and her protégé, Jordan Bardella, celebrated as if victory was within their grasp. Fresh from their historic success in the Euroepan elections, the National Rally (RN) was expecting a massive success in the snap polls, with hopes of an imminent overthrow of the Macron regime. Similarly, the left-wing parties, sensing an opportunity, quickly coalesced to form the New Popular Front (NFP), aiming to seize the opportunity presented by the snap elections. However, so far, Macron has been able to tackle both of them well by using his trade mark tactical plan.
In the second round of elections on July 7, everyone anticipated a massive erosion for Macron’s Ensemble, yet it still managed to secure 164 seats, making it the second-largest group in parliament after the NFP, which won 182 seats. Macron successfully managed to squeeze the chances of the National Rally (NR), which gained 33.1% of votes in the first round and was expected to win between 230-280 seats. However, owing to shrewd maneuvering and seat adjustments with other political parties, Macron and his associates were able to restrict the top performer of the first round, the National Rally, to only 143 seats. In the week between the two rounds of voting, more than 200 candidates, mostly from the left and center, dropped out in favor of a better-placed candidate to beat the NR. This strategic – but informal – alliance, known as the “republican front” in France, was aimed at preventing the far right from ascending to power. The result highlights Macron’s adept political strategy and the resilience of France’s centrist and left-leaning forces in countering the rise of the far right.
The second test for Macron was the election of the President (Speaker) of the National Assembly in a highly fractured parliament. The left-wing NFP alliance secured the most seats, with 182 in the 577-seat Assemblée Nationale. Macron’s supporters came in second, with 164 seats, and the RN party followed closely with 143. None of these groups reached the simple majority threshold of 289 seats. The remaining seats are divided among other smaller parties. In this fragmented scenario, the election of the Speaker was a litmus test for Macron’s political acumen in this turbulent phase. Despite intense discussions and maneuvering, where none of the top three parties were ready to make a deal with each other for the position of Speaker. Emmanuel Macron’s party forged a last-minute agreement with right-leaning lawmakers to secure a crucial parliamentary vote for the position of Speaker. This vote was widely perceived as a litmus test for potential coalitions within France’s fractured parliament. By collaborating with these lawmakers, Macron’s party successfully re-elected Yaël Braun-Pivet as the head of the French National Assembly, the fourth highest-ranking official in France. The ad-hoc alliance between Macron’s party and the right-leaning lawmakers demonstrates a pragmatic approach to governance, suggesting that Macron is looking for a working majority at the moment.
This ad hoc alliance signals that Macron has the political momentum needed to shape the country’s next government. By securing the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet as the head of the French National Assembly, Macron’s party has demonstrated its capacity to forge strategic partnerships and tackle the fractured political landscape. Macron’s ability to leverage these alliances will be crucial in determining the appointment of the next prime minister and ensuring stable governance. The inconclusive election results have certainly plunged French politics into turmoil, threatening the EU’s second-largest economy with potential political paralysis. However, the election of the Speaker in the National Assembly hints at a narrow path through the deadlock. Initially, conservatives had dismissed the idea of forming a coalition with Macron’s supporters, yet they have gradually shown a willingness to collaborate on policy, proposing a legislative package aimed at better recognizing work and restoring authority.
Meanwhile, the NFP unexpectedly nominated civil servant Lucie Castets as prime minister, ending weeks of internal bickering after the snap parliamentary elections. However, President Emmanuel Macron immediately rejected Castets’ nomination. In his first interview since the elections, Macron announced he would not appoint a new government until mid-August, with the current cabinet serving in a caretaker capacity during the Paris Summer Olympics. President Emmanuel Macron contends that the left lacks a sufficient majority in parliament to effectively govern France, implement reforms, and pass a budget. In response, he has called for France to embrace parliamentary politics and the art of negotiation, as practiced in other European countries. With the ongoing Olympics and the traditional lengthy summer break, Macron is strategically banking on this “pause” to lower the political temperature and garner more support for a working alliance, while hoping for further fractures within the NFP, which is already showing signs of internal friction.
Macron’s refusal to allow the left to form a government is driven by fears that it would empower his arch-enemy, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed party. It would also enable the implementation of policies that could torpedo one of Macron’s key achievements, pension reform, and increase France’s debt, potentially leading to a confrontation with Brussels over spending rules. Yet, by refusing to give the left a chance to govern, Macron risks undermining his long-term efforts to build a broad coalition spanning from the left to the conservatives. Despite the chaotic reactions from both the far-right and the left, Macron’s move to gain time seems to have been a calculated risk. His decision to delay the nomination of the prime minister demonstrates resilience and tactical acumen in the face of political adversity. Macron’s approach appears to be a calculated effort to cool the political temperature and foster conditions favorable to his centrist agenda. Looking ahead, Macron hasn’t specified the type of coalition he envisions but emphasized the need to address immigration and security – core issues for conservatives. However, this stance ignites speculation that Macron’s liberals are seeking an alliance with conservatives to govern France.
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