Is El Salvador a “successful” dictatorship”?

Kseniya Sabaleuskaya
Credit: Jose Cabezas/Reuters

El Salvador, for a long period of time, was considered to be one of the most dangerous countries in the world due to its problem of cartels. In 2015, the murder rate in El Salvador was the highest in the world and 20 times higher than in the United States. However, now the country is relatively safe in large part due to a big police presence. The murder rate has plummeted to its lowest rate this century, and almost everyone attributes it to the country’s president, Nayib Bukele and his “war on gangs” policy. Public safety has improved significantly, and the economy has started to recover after decades of instability. The country started to attract more tourists and investors around the world. Nayib Bukele’s popularity rate skyrocketed and is now the highest in Latin America-92%.

The “war on gangs”

Historically, El Salvador has been dealing with 2 major gangs through the decades: MS-13 (Mara Salvatrucha) and Barrio 18 (18 Street Gang).
MS-13 was originated in Los Angeles, California. In the early 1980s they with some other Salvadorian immigrants fleeing the country’s civil war. Later they returned back when the U.S. deported thousands of gang members back to Central America. MS-13 as well as Barrio 18 are not just drug cartels as they are involved in different type of activities: extortion, drug trafficking (more locally then internationally), human trafficking, weapons smuggling, and contract killings. MS-13 controls significant portions of urban and rural areas in El Salvador, enforcing their rule with brutal violence. They impose “taxes” (extortion payments) on businesses and individuals living in their territories. Their primary rival is Barrio 18, and violent clashes between the two have contributed to El Salvador’s high murder rates.
Like MS-13, Barrio 18 also originated in Los Angeles in the 1980s. It initially started as a Mexican-American gang but later recruited Central Americans, including Salvadorans. Barrio 18 has similar activities as its rival gang: extortion and street-level drug distribution, kidnapping, human trafficking, and other forms of organized crime.
The two gangs have been fighting each other exposing ordinary citizens to death till Bukele came to power with his strict policy.
Since 2019 the police have been capturing the criminals recognizing the members of the gangs by specific tattoos they have on their body. However, when the gang leaders realized the police concept, they stopped to force gang members to tattoo themselves and began to recruit teenagers and young children to their activity. Nevertheless, the government continued its actions against the cartels and more and more criminals were taken to prison. However, the gangs didn’t stop the violence. 

In March 2022, El Salvador experienced a shocking spike in violence when 87 people were murdered by gangs in just a few days. This appeared to be a direct challenge to Bukele’s authority, as the cartels sought to intimidate him into reversing his policies. Bukele responded by imposing a state of emergency, initially intended to last 30 days. However, this state of emergency has been extended 22 times since then and remains till nowadays. It suspends fundamental constitutional rights, including freedom of association, privacy, and due process.

Under this framework, thousands of alleged gang members have been arrested. Currently, El Salvador’s prisons hold approximately 75,000 detainees, a number that continues to grow. To accommodate this surge, the government constructed the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT), the largest prison in the world, capable of holding 40,000 inmates. Bukele’s no-tolerance policy means that anyone suspected of gang affiliation—even without evidence—can face imprisonment. While this strategy has improved public safety, it has also led to wrongful incarcerations, particularly affecting vulnerable citizens.

Human rights violations

Human rights organizations have condemned Bukele’s heavy-handed tactics. Critics argue that his policies have led to mass detentions without due process, overcrowded prisons, and a climate of fear. Gangs are using Bukuele’s policy against him. They are sending the messages to the police with the accusations of certain Salvadorians in order to spread fear among citizens. Sometimes it is due to the “unpaid taxes” to the gangs by certain people in the area controlled by one of the cartels. Sometimes, due to the refusal of a person to join the gang. Unfortunately, lots of the cases with innocent people accused of having connections with the gang are not being investigated. Those people are going directly to the prison either they have blame on their hands or not. Consequently, the most vulnerable classes of the society are not protected by the state.

The lack of a rehabilitation by Bukele makes people question the validity of his policies. “A very common tattoo among gangs is to get three points on hands. One is the jail, the other is the hospital, and the last is death. They don’t have the fourth, they don’t have the rehabilitation.”- says one of the ministers of Bukele’s administration.

The centralization of power 

Bukele’s consolidation of power has alarmed many observers. In 2021, his New Ideas Party won a supermajority in the Legislative Assembly, enabling Bukele to pass laws and reforms with little opposition. Shortly thereafter, the legislature dismissed all five judges of the Constitutional Court of the Supreme Court, replacing them with Bukele loyalists. Journalists, opposition figures, and activists have faced intimidation, surveillance, and censorship, further undermining democratic norms.

Economic initiatives and Bitcoin experiment

Despite the concerns over his authoritarian tendencies, Bukele’s policies have also brought economic progress. His government has invested heavily in infrastructure, building new roads, schools, and hospitals. Improved security and targeted marketing have positioned El Salvador as an emerging tourist destination, particularly for surfing and eco-tourism. These efforts have contributed to job creation and economic growth. 

One of Bukele’s most controversial initiatives was making Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, alongside the U.S. dollar. This move aimed to attract investment, promote financial inclusion, and establish El Salvador as a global cryptocurrency hub. The government introduced the Chivo Wallet, a state-run Bitcoin payment app, and unveiled plans for Bitcoin City, a tax-free, renewable energy-powered zone for crypto businesses. However, critics have raised concerns about the high public debt—77% of GDP in 2024—and the sustainability of these ambitious projects.

Citizenship and tax policies 

To attract foreign investment, Bukele reduced taxes on foreign-earned income and introduced a unique citizenship-by-donation program. For a donation of $1 million in Bitcoin, up to 1,000 individuals can obtain Salvadoran citizenship. However, El Salvador is not a full tax haven, as it maintains other forms of taxation.

The legacy 

President Nayib Bukele’s leadership has undeniably transformed El Salvador. His aggressive stance against gangs has made the country safer, earning him a 92% approval rating—the highest in Latin America. The improved security has spurred tourism and foreign investment, providing a much-needed boost to the economy.

However, Bukele’s methods have some painful consequences. His disregard for constitutional rights, mass detentions, and for the system of checks and balances are making a road for an authoritarianism. While his policies have yielded short-term gains, their long-term implications for El Salvador’s democracy and society remain uncertain. Whether Bukele’s presidency will be remembered as a success or a disaster depends on whether he can balance can continue the implementation of his reforms increasing not only the safety, but also the citizens’ level of life, while not provoking the tensions in the society. 

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Kseniya Sabaleuskaya is a multilingual student hailing from Belarus but currently pursuing her academic journey in Poland, where she is fluent in Russian and Belarusian. She is now embarking on an Erasmus adventure in Granada, studying Political Science and Sociology in English while honing her Spanish skills. With a background in tutoring Polish and crafting insightful articles on various political subjects, Kseniya is passionate about researching, analyzing, and drawing her own conclusions.
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