Geneva, 3 September (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – El Niño 2026 is expected to intensify into a very strong climate event towards the end of the year and persist until at least February 2027, increasing the risk of disruptive weather across several regions, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The UN weather agency says forecasts indicate a near 100% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through December 2026 to February 2027. The phenomenon develops when unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific interact with the atmosphere, changing weather patterns far beyond the Pacific.
Why is El Niño becoming so powerful?
El Niño has strengthened as sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen significantly above normal. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has also identified substantial warmer-than-average water beneath the Pacific’s surface, providing further conditions for the event to intensify.
The WMO expects the phenomenon to reach very strong intensity before peaking around the end of 2026. However, scientists stress that a powerful El Niño does not automatically mean every affected region will experience equally severe weather.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes.” His warning reflects growing concern about the interaction between the natural climate phenomenon and already elevated global temperatures.
What could countries face in the coming months?
A strong El Niño can dramatically alter normal rainfall and temperature patterns. Some countries may experience prolonged drought and water shortages, while others could face unusually heavy rainfall and an increased threat of flooding.
Agriculture is particularly vulnerable because changes in rainfall and extreme temperatures can affect crops, livestock and water availability. Governments may also need to prepare health services and emergency agencies for periods of extreme heat or severe weather.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned: “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods.” The organisation is urging countries to strengthen early-warning and preparedness measures as conditions intensify.
What happens after El Niño reaches its peak?
El Niño 2026 is expected to reach maximum strength towards the end of the year, but its influence will not necessarily disappear immediately afterwards. Forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions will remain through at least February 2027.
Meteorological agencies will continue monitoring Pacific temperatures and atmospheric conditions while issuing increasingly detailed regional forecasts. The exact impact will vary between countries, making national weather warnings particularly important as the event approaches its expected peak.
