Greece (Brussels Morning Newspaper) Over the past 20 years, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s dominant bilateral trading partner, now accounting for 20% of the region’s exports—mostly raw materials—and 16% of its imports, primarily manufactured goods. Trade between the two hit a record $282 billion in 2023, according to the IMF. At the same time, China has grown into Africa’s largest bilateral creditor, with its share of the region’s external public debt rising from under 2% in 2005 to 17%—or $134 billion—by 2021. Chinese foreign direct investment has also surged, from just $75 million in 2003 to $5 billion in 2022, much of it funnelled through the Belt and Road Initiative into infrastructure, energy, and mining. The result is a deepening economic entanglement that is reshaping Africa’s development trajectory and geopolitical alignments.
From Patron to Partner?
While African economies have reaped substantial gains from China’s rapid expansion, they now face the challenge of adjusting to slowing Chinese growth, waning exports, and reduced capital flows. The IMF estimates that a 1-point drop in China’s real GDP shaves about 0.25 points off sub-Saharan Africa’s growth within a year. To unlock future potential, stronger alignment between Africa’s continental free trade agenda (AfCFTA) and China’s Belt and Road Initiative is critical—especially as Beijing shifts the BRI toward “small yet smart” projects emphasizing green and digital sectors. As African ministers and business leaders gather in China for the Annual Meeting of the New Champions, the focus is on deepening regional cooperation and sustaining growth in an era of mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The West is observing with growing concern as a growing number of African nations—once economically and politically tethered to their former colonial powers—are now gravitating toward China and Russia, viewing them as more dependable and responsive partners. This strategic realignment represents a major setback for Western influence on the continent and is rooted in years of discontent. African leaders have long criticized the West for monopolistic resource extraction, persistent corruption tied to aid and investment, and a consistent unwillingness to share technology or support meaningful capacity-building. Additionally, the West has often been accused of absorbing Africa’s top scientific and technical talent, offering little in return. In contrast, China and Russia are positioning themselves as pragmatic allies, willing to invest, transfer skills, and engage on terms that many African governments find more favourable.
Africa is the third most important region for China’s party-to-party work after Asia and Europe in terms of the frequency of high-level exchanges, study tours, and party-building to cultivate political and personal networks with decision-makers, influencers, and regime loyalists. China’s 2025–2027 Beijing Action Plan, unveiled at the September 2024 FOCAC summit, charts a proactive agenda to deepen China‑Africa ties through practical, skill‑building initiatives: financing for SMEs, industrial‑chain development around critical minerals, digital‑tech hubs, infrastructure projects, multimodal transport networks, local‑currency settlement systems, and 1,000 targeted livelihood programs—all alongside its “small‑yet‑smart” pivot into green development and digital economy cooperation. Meanwhile, CFR analysts note that Beijing is stepping into a diplomatic void left by the West, intensifying engagement in Africa through high‑level visits, new economic‑technical cooperation deals, and multisector investment—especially in mining, energy, and defense—positioning China as a reliable, responsive partner amid shifting global dynamics.
Partnership or Paranoia
As the West turns inward—tightening immigration policies and limiting economic migration from Africa—it must resist the temptation to disengage economically from the continent. For decades, Africa was seen largely through the lens of opportunistic resource extraction, a perception that no longer holds. Going forward, Western governments must recalibrate their approach, treating African nations as strategic partners, not passive recipients. With 2030 and 2050 fast approaching, both short- and long-term collaboration will be essential—not driven by fear of losing ground to rivals like China, but by a forward-looking vision rooted in mutual interest and shared growth.
As China eclipses the U.S. and France to become Africa’s top trading partner, Western media and policymakers are responding with alarmist visuals—maps saturated in red or marked with Chinese flags—to signal Beijing’s growing influence. But such imagery, as one researcher argues, oversimplifies reality and frames economic engagement as foreign threat. This tactic, known as securitization, fuels fears of dependency and primes audiences in the West to see China’s presence in Africa not as competition, but as strategic encroachment.
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