A break in France’s political stalemate has arrived with the appointment of Michel Barnier, a seasoned player in both French and European politics, as Prime Minister. French President Emmanuel Macron argued that the left did not have the parliamentary strength to make a stable government that could withstand opposition. He also rejected supporting a candidate from the National Rally ostensibly because of the party’s extremist legacy. Of this option, Mcaron turned to Michel Barnier as his choice to head a coalition government backed mainly by his supporters and also involving members of the conservative Republicans (LR) as well as other centrist groups. Given his experience of managing complex political landscapes, Barnier is seen as a stabilizing figure in what remains a fractured French political environment. Barnier emerged from the Republicans, the party that long embodied the old right in French politics. After having been a dominant force for decades under the banner of Gaullism, it is now has been reduced to parliament’s fourth-largest grouping with its influence seemingly in decline. Barnier’s success will depend on how well he manages this fractured terrain.
However, Michel Barnier’s new government looks set to carry forward the foreign policy mantle of Emmanuel Macron. Barnier’s team is likely to maintain a consistent approach on key international issues, from supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression to managing the volatile dynamics of Israel’s conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. Barnier’s traditional French conservative view of foreign policy aligns with Macron’s vision for strategic autonomy. Having served as foreign minister during President Jacques Chirac’s time, Barnier belongs to a generation of politicians for whom France’s role in the world and that of the EU are closely tied together. His vision of the EU as a means to maximise influence within the continent is rooted in a centuries-old effort by France. Though Barnier is unlikely to stray from the path Macron has set, his seasoned understanding of international diplomacy ensures that France will continue to assert its strategic autonomy on the world stage, balancing European partnerships with a uniquely French sense of sovereignty.
Nonetheless, the immediate challenge for France’s new foreign policy team is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. With commitments made during the 2024 Paris Conference still fresh. France must now follow through on its pledges to Ukraine, particularly its ten-year bilateral security agreement, a deal that has faced resistance from France’s far left. This entails maintaining the flow of both bilateral and EU aid, which has already exceeded €1.3 billion in 2024 alone. In the coming months, France will have to manage the complex financial architecture needed to secure EU support, including the controversial seizure of immobilized Russian assets. For Macron’s government, supporting Ukraine is not merely a matter of immediate security but also a test of France’s long-standing doctrine of strategic autonomy. By ensuring continued military deliveries and diplomatic backing, Barnier’s foreign policy team can reinforce France’s leadership within the European Union, while simultaneously holding Russia accountable for its aggression. However, as domestic pressures mount, particularly from those on the far left who oppose such extensive involvement, sustaining public and political support for these measures may become increasingly difficult, especially as the war drags on with no clear end in sight. In the coming months, Paris will need to prove that it can manage this situation without undermining its domestic or international credibility.
The doctrine of “strategic ambiguity” lies at the heart of Macron’s foreign policy – demanding adaptability from allies, who must act with initiative and avoid confining themselves within rigid red lines. This doctrine not only shapes France’s military aid but also allows for more aggressive actions, such as supporting Ukraine in strikes deep into Russian territory. Under this doctrine, France’s willingness to evolve its military posture is evident, especially in how it handles the use of advanced weaponry like long-range missiles. While Kyiv already has received tacit approval to target Russian assets beyond the frontlines, the French government will carefully balance this with an eye toward strategic restraint. Barnier’s team will likely see further adaptation of this doctrine as the war progresses, creating new dilemmas for Moscow while avoiding actions that could escalate into broader conflict. This ambiguity allows France to stay flexible, responding to the shifting landscape of the battlefield without necessarily providing Ukraine an unrestricted green light to use all French-acquired capabilities. This careful balance defines France’s broader role in the conflict.
France is facing a crucial moment on the diplomatic stage, as it seeks to reclaim credibility after months of internal political turbulence. President Emmanuel Macron, whose leadership has been marred by domestic challenges, will now attempt to reassert France’s role in shaping any future ceasefire or peace plan for Ukraine. The 2024 conference in Paris highlighted the importance of engaging in complex discussions surrounding Ukraine’s long-term security – addressing the legal, political, military, and operational frameworks required to ensure stability. To achieve this, France will look to its robust defense partnership with a potential Labour-led government in the United Kingdom and may position itself as a diplomatic bridge to Central and Eastern European nations that have been key players in the Ukraine crisis. Experienced hands like Barnier will be pivotal in facilitating these consultations, helping solidify France’s role in the larger geopolitical picture.
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