The EU institutions reached a new record in 2024 in Georgia in terms of being surprised, unprepared and non-responsive vis-à-vis well-planned and well-predicted moves of the ruling party to consolidate its hold on power, including by rigging October’s parliamentary elections.
In mid-May, over 120 experts from the TEPSA network and beyond addressed an open letter to the leaders of EU institutions, pleading for timely (geo)political action, including a large-scale pre-election monitoring mission. Our letter warned that the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party was in the process of “establishing a Belarus-style regime that would enable Russia to regain control over the South Caucasus.”
Regrettably, only a routine electoral mission took place, and the EU’s ex post technical mission has not yet arrived. The ruling party has meanwhile confronted post-election civil protests with riot police, water cannons, tear gas, and rubber bullets. It has also deployed thugs who target activists, journalists, and opposition leaders. Over 400 people have been detained over the past two weeks, most of them beaten. Still, Georgians courageously continue to protest across the country.
Large-scale civil protests started in April, but only now in December has anybody arrived to Georgia from the political level of EU institutions. Six MEPs have now found the time to visit Tbilisi and meet civil society representatives and President Zourabichvili, who has become the focal point of efforts to salvage Georgia’s democracy.
Stolen elections
According to two mutually independent exit polls by companies with a long record of accuracy, Georgia’s four main opposition parties together obtained about 50% of votes in the 26 October parliamentary election, while Georgian Dream received about 40%. However, official results gave GD 54% and the combined opposition only 38%. With election administration and courts under its control, the ruling party has smoothly turned an electoral defeat into a self-proclaimed victory and has tried to carry on.
Behind closed doors in Brussels, EEAS representatives acknowledge that Georgian Dream rigged the parliamentary election through intimidation, vote-buying, violations of vote secrecy and carousel voting. The illegitimacy of the election outcome has been well described in a strong resolution adopted by the European Parliament with a majority of 444 votes in favour versus 72 against.
On 9 December, EU Ambassador Paweł Herczyński condemned the regime’s brutal response to civil protests and called for perpetrators to be brought to justice. A few hours later, he visited the foreign minister of GD’s self-proclaimed government. The photo of his handshake with the regime has at the very least confused and angered Georgian protesters, who hope to receive a substantial voice of support from the EU.
Commission President von der Leyen has repeatedly stated that the EU stands with the Georgian people, before contradicting herself by stating that Georgia’s return to a European path is “in the hands of the Georgian leadership”. The latter remark is either naïve in pinning hopes on a regime that has clearly shown that it prioritises staying in power over anything else, or it is an admission of weakness and lack of the EU’s ability to act geopolitically.
Although Georgian civil protests of 2023-24 have been largely about joining the EU, nobody in the EU institutions seems to have the task of defending Georgians’ democratic pro-European choice. Instead, EU institutions display indifference to the country’s slide into Russia and China’s embrace. Beyond statements of solidarity, the EU executive’s revealed preference is inaction.
Inaction leads to geopolitical loss
This is striking, given the geopolitical loss that Georgia’s Belarusisation would mean for Europe. From ceding influence around the Black Sea area and losing the remains of democracy in the region, to risking connectivity through the Southern Caucasus – the GD’s victory brings no gain to the EU. If Georgia falls, it will become very difficult to uphold pro-European democracy anywhere in the region, including in neighbouring Armenia, which has been taking considerable risk by decoupling from Russia.
The gravity of the situation in Georgia is better understood by Baltic, Nordic, and Central European Member States as well as Ukraine. Some of these countries have recently enacted national sanctions and travel bans against Georgian Dream protagonists. Supportive statements have also been issued by French, German, and Polish foreign ministers, but they have not been followed by any measures so far.
Through its inaction, the EU is depleting the ‘soft power’ it still had: power based on reputation and on democratic values that people in the neighbourhood have tended to associate with the Union. The EU is also undermining its geopolitical role in the region, possibly forever.
What would be relevant and principled political action at this point in time? Besides stepping up support to civil society and imposing (EU or national) financial sanctions on GD leadership, EU representatives should engage with President Zourabichvili as the sole legitimate representative of Georgia, until new parliamentary elections are held in free and fair conditions with strong European supervision.
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