Regional wars erupt only when some of the parties involved perceive a power asymmetry that would allow them to eliminate a foe or alter the geopolitical order.
This is why regional war in the Middle East is out of the question: both Iran and Israel are depleted economically, torn apart internally, and vulnerable to annihilating attacks.
Moreover: there is a coalition of moderate Sunni Arab states and Western powers pitted against Iran.
Similarly, the war between Russia and Ukraine will never spread or get out of hand. Even if Russia were to conquer the entire territory of its neighbour – NATO, a defensive alliance would not countenance going to war over it.
But there is a growing trend that is truly terrifying: the legitimization of the use of nuclear weapons even in conventional wars. Russia, North Korea, Israel, and China are all engaged in the ostentatious contemplation of the hitherto unthinkable.
Russia has just revised its policy to allow for the incorporation of its nuclear arsenal in all types of warfare. Israel considers the current conflict it be embroiled in an existential threat. North Korea is alarmed by the growing military collusion between the USA and South Korea and is flaunting its nuclear arsenal. China has just lobbed an ICBM to signal its readiness to confront the West over Taiwan.
The utilization of tactical nuclear weapons in regional or local wars is in itself only a minor threat to world peace. But having crossed this threshold, having flung open Pandora’s box, strategic nuclear weapons are liable to follow.
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