Belgium, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) The US midterm election results were greeted with a sigh of relief in Brussels and most European capitals. The democratic majority in the Senate was perceived in Brussels as a clear signal that the EU can continue to rely on its transatlantic partner, especially amid the war in Ukraine. Yet, in the current age of permacrisis, the pieces on the chessboard move faster than we expect. How can the EU make itself ready for any type of outcome in the game?
When Democrats and Republicans meet halfway
Despite Europeans’ natural affinity towards the Democratic party, it is important to acknowledge that most features of the US foreign policy enjoy bipartisan support. America’s growing disengagement from Europe reflects a long-term shift that is shared across the aisle. It was Obama who started the US ‘pivot’ to Asia, and there is consensus on the Hill that US’s 21st-century arch-rival is China, not Russia. Only Russia’s naked act of aggression of invading Ukraine led to a spectacular rescaling of the US’s engagement in Europe. Unfortunately for Europe, however, this remains an exceptional event. As the war lingers, Ukraine fatigue will inevitably appear in the US and will lead to a renewed disengagement under the pretext of other national and foreign policy priorities. That is why developing the EU’s “strategic autonomy” is an exceptionally important task that must be pinned at the top of the European policymakers’ agenda.
The urgent need for a European response
“Strategic autonomy” is a concept with great potential, but one that will remain a buzzword if concrete actions do not follow. It emerged in the late 2010s, with calls for “European sovereignty” by several European leaders. A decade later, the concept didn’t transform into capacity as planned, but the European Commission took ownership of the debate, with Commissioners Vestager and Breton at the forefront. “Strategic autonomy” raises questions and conundrums that policymakers currently struggle to answer in Brussels and European capitals: deciding where, when, and how to be autonomous. However, the most important question to answer is why we want to be autonomous, particularly in the context of transatlantic cooperation. Americans have shown us that transatlantic relations are not linear either in their progress or deterioration: they are a country dance with two steps forward and one step back. Becoming strategically autonomous is going to give the EU much-needed negotiating power with our allies, and a solid ground to stand on when our interests don’t align.
A good start to developing that autonomy would be security and defense. Europe needs to shoulder the burden of its security and complement the strength of its American ally, and the shock of the war in Ukraine may prove decisive in that regard. With Sweden and Finland abandoning their historical neutrality to join NATO, and Germany slowly waking from its self-imposed pacifism, the reality of genuine European defense capacity and common security policy has never seemed closer.
One of the EU’s first reactions to Russia’s attack on Ukraine was the adoption of a new ‘Strategic Compass’, probably the most ambitious plan for a common foreign and security policy in the history of European integration. Self-described as a ‘quantum leap forward’, the document is a roadmap for developing military capabilities and improving defense spending and cooperation. This is sorely needed, as US support for Ukraine does not alter the fact that Americans do not see Russia as a long-term challenge to their supremacy. They rightfully see Putin’s aggression as the last outburst of the declining power. We Europeans have the wounded bear going berserk at our doorstep with little left to lose.
Trade and Technology Council (TTC) can breathe life into digital cooperation
The digital economy is another area where the EU needs to assert its autonomy and power. The DSA-DMA legislative package is the most recent illustration of the EU’s formidable normative power, the so-called ‘Brussels effect’. The EU is at the forefront of efforts to shape liberal governance of the world’s digital economy, ensuring that technological developments remain within the boundaries of our fundamental democratic and ethical standards.
This is where EU-US relations are crucial. Setting digital standards requires international collaboration and endorsement by a coalition of technologically advanced countries with a common vision. New regulations should not lead to the EU’s self-isolation nor stifle innovation in a heavily interlinked market that thrives on the open internet and open borders. Europe’s digital agenda should not be about punishing American companies for their success – a growing sentiment on the other side of the Atlantic that, while largely overblown, is not entirely misplaced.
More trust and cooperation are needed to alleviate these concerns EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC), launched in 2021, is a strong example of how such cooperation can be implemented. Used effectively, such a forum can forge strong ties based on a mutual understanding that can resist turbulent electoral cycles. The most recent success story of the TTC framework is the New U.S.-EU Artificial Intelligence Collaboration, announced this January.
This model should be developed and applied to other areas of common interests, providing some structure to the EU’s most valuable and longest-standing alliance. A partnership between equals is what EU-US relations should look like. Nevertheless, parity will never be achieved without the EU becoming strategically autonomous in these key policy areas.
Transatlantic cooperation beyond TTC
While the TTC complements NATO’s military focus, it leaves much to be desired on the political side of the relationship, with weakened cooperation and high barriers to communication leading to fractures. We need to coordinate more robustly, beyond the limits of the TTC, and move to develop a political transatlantic institution that will strengthen, govern, and protect our relationship. We must prevent at all costs a future where we would be left alone standing on the sidelines of global politics, unable to provide safety and prosperity to our citizens and allies.
While all of this may seem a remote prospect, the only missing ingredient is political will on both sides of the Atlantic. All of us must come to terms with the reality of the situation in the global geopolitical arena, and the only solution to this increasingly unstable platform is genuine transatlantic cooperation between the European Union and the United States of America, no matter who sits in the White House.
