Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper), Viktor Orban likes to draw historical parallels to legitimize his government’s autocratic turn and opposition to EU solidarity. The treaty of Trianon in which Hungary lost much of its territory after WWI is endlessly brought up to invoke a victim complex and heroic struggle against supposed outside threats to Hungarian sovereignty. But history is a grab bag of events; what matters is how we decide to interpret and act on them. It is also possible to tell the positive story of how Hungary belongs in a free Europe.
In 1956, Soviet tanks crushed Hungarian revolutionaries fighting for freedom. The last radio broadcast was ”we will die for Hungary and Europe”. Last year, Viktor Orban commemorated the anniversary of that uprising by comparing the European Union to the USSR. On the same day, Russian tanks burned while attempting to subjugate another people yearning for democracy and a European future, in Ukraine. Orban described Zelensky as the opponent he defeated in unfair elections.
Orban may depict himself as a brave Magyar revolutionary fighting against ‘’unelected bureaucrats in Brussels’’, but it is his autocratic regime that is enabling Russian imperialism to subjugate Europeans, and holding the EU hostage from becoming a united democracy.
Let’s be frank: the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a war against Europe. Winning the peace is an existential security priority for the EU. What is needed is military and financial aid, bringing Ukraine into the EU, and a stronger Europe that stands the test of time. 26 member states of the European Union agree on this, at least.
Viktor Orban’s opposition to supporting Ukraine is preventing the Union from ensuring that it never again, isn’t again.
We shouldn’t be naive to think the agreement reached on the 15th of December to start accession talks with Ukraine was a victory. It had a 10 billion euro bribe price tag. Member States can veto every single step in the accession process (70+ times!): and Orban has made clear he intends to maximise every bit of leverage he has, including over the 50 billion Ukraine facility which is crucial to keep basic services functioning and save lives.
This is problematic enough as it is, but Hungary will also preside over the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU from the 1st of July to the 31st of December 2024. It will have the power to set the agenda, chair meetings, and represent the Council, thus deciding the political and legislative focus of the member states, for six months. Six months to complicate the legitimate transition of power from one European Parliament and Commission term to another. Six months to deny urgent work on the rule of law, better-functioning institutions, and common defense. Six months during which the United States will be a coin toss away from re-electing another aspiring dictator who has made it very clear he will not come to Europe’s aid in a continental war. Those are six months we cannot afford to waste. With Charles Michel’s irresponsible and selfish early departure, the heads of government in the European Council will be divided and not be able to form a united and coherent front.
So Viktor Orban and his clique will hold the EU hostage during a critical moment for our continent’s future, and its long-term survival. Imagine if, for six months, the city of Utrecht could decide what the Netherlands parliament would be able to discuss. And let’s dispel ourselves of the idea that this is some kind of expression of total sovereign will: Hungary is no longer a democracy, and all the electoral tricks in the autocrat’s playbook can’t hide the fact half of Hungarians oppose him.
Hungarian officials railing against what they describe as an ‘’undemocratic and hypocritical witch hunt’’ refuse to tell the true story. The reality is that in any political union sharing financial means, as in the EU, membership comes with rights and obligations. If a German state suddenly started dismantling the courts, taking ownership of the media, and destroying the democratic process, the Constitutional Court and Federal Government would intervene. Tens of billions of EU funds built Hungarian roads, schools, and hospitals, but also ended up in the pockets of political allies of Orban, entrenching his grip on power. Since 2021 the EU can finally withhold those funds if serious breaches of the rule of law exist. Orban knows this is his only lifeline for political survival. This is why he has become increasingly bolder in his use of the veto. The Commission’s decision to grant Hungary 10 billion isn’t just wrong, it’s disappointing to the many Hungarian citizens expecting the EU to come to their aid in their fight against autocracy, corruption, and cynicism at home.
The decisions we make over the following months will be critical for creating the kind of union we want to be. A petition by the European Parliament calling for the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights passed by a large majority on January 18th. This is a strong statement that we are in an intolerable situation. But the final vote will still be for the Member States, who have to vote unanimously in favor. Until now, Poland as an autocratic ally ensured that this could never happen, but a new wind is waving in Warsaw and Donald Tusk’s government is determined to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine win. Yet Slovakia seems to have replaced the role of Orban’s ally. Eventually, moving away from unanimity altogether will become inevitable. The EU cannot function in a world where ‘’seize and weigh matter’’ if it has to hold its breath every time one of its 27 national elections risks bringing far-right populists into power.
What is more; the European Council has gotten more and more powerful over the years of crisis management from the Eurozone to Covid and Ukraine as the de-facto European executive, in the absence of a legitimately elected European government. This is undemocratic and unsustainable. Plenty of government leaders use the European Council club to provide cover for themselves while they hollow out democracy and the Rule of Law at home, such as in the case of Mitsotakis in Greece.
The most urgent priorities are to trigger Article 7.2 and take away Hungary’s voting rights in the Council of the EU. This effectively means that it will not be able to participate in lawmaking and lose out on most of the financial benefits. Most critically the Ukraine Facility should be adopted, without exceptions or delays, in the February European Council. But the European Parliament is also failing to use the critical tools it has at its disposal; the 10 billion Euro bribe from the Commission to Orban (in the slap of the face of Hungarians fighting for the Rule of Law) fully qualifies a call for the resignation of Von der Leyen. The change in leadership in the major institutions after the European Parliament election also means the Parliament has one shot to flex its muscles if all its parties backed the Spitzenkandidat procedure and presented the European Council with a united front in negotiations. This is about protecting democracy and the Rule of Law in Europe. So far, that unity is unfortunately hard to find. Fundamentally, European politics is held hostage by national interests, undermining meaningful sovereignty.
That is why just as the Hungarians fought for in 1956: Europe too must become a sovereign democracy if it is to truly survive and thrive. And this is exactly what Volt is fighting for.
The EU should improve the Rule of Law and effective decision-making as a geopolitical union in the world. Many of these can be done without treaty change:
- Empower the European Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) with a stronger mandate covering general breaches of EU law, not just those related to the use of the EU budget;
- Make all future EU budget instruments conditional on strong rule of law safeguards;
- Lower the threshold for taking away voting rights for Member States in breach of EU values, at least by replacing unanimous voting with a four-fifths majority (article 7);
- Enable the Court of Justice to decide whether a serious and persistent breach of EU values is occurring, rather than through a political decision by the Council;
- Move from unanimity to qualified majority voting, at least in sanctions policy and the opening and closing of accession chapters for candidate countries to minimize the potential for blackmail.
By Teun Janssen, European Parliament candidate for Volt Nederland
