Sana’a (Brussels Morning) – The Red Sea is on the brink of becoming a hotspot once again as tensions escalate between the United States, Iran, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The U.S. has called for international action against Iran for its weapon transfers to the Houthis, who have responded with threats against Israeli and Western ships. Despite substantial evidence of Iran’s violations, the Houthis continue their aggressive actions, targeting international shipping and disrupting global supply chains. Their capabilities, bolstered by Iran, have proven difficult for Western powers to counter, highlighting the evolving nature of modern guerrilla warfare. The Houthis’ control over key chokepoints like the Bab al-Mandab strait exacerbates global economic vulnerabilities. As the U.S. seeks to mitigate these threats, the situation remains complex with ongoing hostilities and the potential for further escalation.
The Red Sea is once again on the verge of becoming a volatile conflict zone. The United States has issued a strong call for international intervention against Iran’s destabilizing activities in Yemen, particularly its support for the Houthi rebels. Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood addressed the UN Security Council, urging Tehran to stop supplying advanced weaponry to the Houthis, which has significantly heightened tensions in the region. Concurrently, the Houthis have escalated their threats against Israeli and Western vessels, intensifying the risk of conflict. This situation underscores the urgency for global action to prevent further escalation and stabilize the region.
What actions has the U.S. taken against Iran’s involvement in Yemen, and how have the Houthis responded?
It appears that the Red Sea is once more on the brink of becoming a hot zone. Last week, the United States made a fervent call to the international community, urging collective action against Iran for its disruptive involvement in Yemen. Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood emphasized the imperative for Tehran to cease weapons transfers to the Houthi rebels, characterizing Iran’s actions as destabilizing. Wood’s address to the UN Security Council stressed the necessity of holding Iran accountable and rejecting its attempts to shield itself behind the Houthi insurgency. Citing substantial evidence, Wood talked about Iran’s flagrant violation of UN sanctions by supplying the Houthis with advanced weaponry, including ballistic and cruise missiles. The appeal signifies a renewed push by the US to address Iran’s role in exacerbating the conflict in Yemen and underscores the urgency of international action to mitigate further escalation.Â
On the other hand, the Houthis have escalated their threats against Washington and European ships in recent times. “We will target any ships heading to Israeli ports in the Mediterranean Sea in any area we are able to reach,” is how Houthi’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree threatened earlier this month, adding that the decision will be implemented “immediately, and from the moment this statement is announced”. In his televised message, Saree issued a stark warning: Israeli-bound ships would be targeted within the range of Houthi capabilities. Saree linked this threat to the prospect of an impending “aggressive military operation” in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, where over 1.5 million Palestinians seek refuge.
What recent actions have the Houthis taken against international shipping, and what are their claims about the U.S. military’s response?
There are indications that, after keeping a somewhat low profile during the month of Ramadan, the Houthis are now aggressively resuming their attacks on the Israel-bound vessels. Recently they targeted many container ships through drones as part of their ongoing campaign against international shipping in solidarity with Palestinians against Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Interestingly, Houthi Information Minister Dhaif Allah Al-Shami has claimed that the US was compelled to withdraw its aircraft carrier and other warships from the Red Sea due to their inability to counter the Houthi attacks. Al-Shmai mentioned plans for a new military offensive against Israeli ships in the Mediterranean in the coming days.
However, Yemeni experts remain skeptical about the Houthis’ claims regarding their capability to target Israeli ships in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been seriously building up momentum within the country in favor of the Rafah operation, threatening to deploy ground troops to Rafah amidst ongoing bombardment. For Netanyahu, Rafah holds immense significance beyond its geopolitical importance. It serves as a symbol of his aspirations for “total victory” – a term he employs to describe the complete domination of the area and the expulsion of Palestinians residing there. While Rafah may lack strategic value, its symbolic resonance as a gateway for Palestinian displacement underscores Netanyahu’s strategy to assert control.
What challenges do the Houthis pose to Western powers, and how are they preparing for future conflicts?
So, the stage is set for another intense round of bout in the Red Sea. According to a recent report from The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Houthis are intensively preparing for future engagements by undertaking aggressive measures such as tunnel excavation and the construction of large-scale military installations. The IISS report says: “While the Houthis used caves and simple tunnels in their earliest days as an armed group, more recently, they have pursued much larger installations, refurbishing both pre-war Yemeni Army tunnel systems and building entirely new underground facilities. The construction efforts illustrate that even before the military confrontation with the US and allied forces, the Houthis were preparing for, and hardening themselves in case of, future conflict.”
So far, the Houthis have demonstrated a sobering reality: Western powers, despite their formidable military might, are unable to tackle the multifaceted challenges posed by unconventional adversaries. These non-state adversaries are reshaping the landscape of conflict. Conventional strategies centered on bolstering deterrence and flexing military muscle may no longer suffice in this evolving paradigm. One key factor driving this shift is the proliferation of advanced weaponry, such as drones and precision-guided missiles, once the exclusive purview of wealthy nations.
The traditional tools of terror, like suicide jackets and improvised explosives, are giving way to more sophisticated, high-tech alternatives. Compounding the challenge is the asymmetry of vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by the Houthis’ ability to exploit the vulnerabilities of technologically advanced nations. The disruption caused by the Houthis in the Bab al-Mandab strait affects global shipping, impacting consumers in Europe and manufacturers in Asia. Shifting oil tankers to longer routes raises fuel prices in the US, with minimal impact on the Houthis.
How does Houthi control of the Red Sea chokepoint impact global trade and security?
The Houthis wield what one might term bottleneck power, controlling the narrow passageway into the Red Sea and thus able to disrupt a crucial point in the global supply chain. This capacity to exploit chokepoints highlights a significant yet often overlooked vulnerability in the global economy – one that the United States, despite its self-proclaimed role as guarantor of freedom of navigation, appears almost powerless to counter. Masters of modern guerrilla warfare, the Houthis have adeptly exploited the weaknesses of more powerful adversaries. Backed by Iran with weapons, training, and intelligence, the Houthis, resilient and strategic, control one of the world’s most vital waterways. They understand that deeper entanglement with the United States will amplify their impact on the global economy.
This undeclared war reflects a critical reality: While the United States boasts overwhelming economic power, its dependence on global trade renders it susceptible to economic assaults by seemingly minor players like the Houthis. The recent caution from Houthi leadership regarding Netanyahu’s purported scheme to strike Rafah warrants serious consideration from the Biden administration. The Houthi’s potential response could surpass previous actions in intensity, potentially triggering repercussions that extend well beyond Washington’s control. Despite efforts by American and allied forces to diminish the Iran-backed rebels’ strength in Yemen, last week testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on the intelligence community’s 2024 assessment of threats facing the United States by Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, suggests that these strikes will persist.
“Our assessment is essentially that it is going to remain active for some time,” said Avril Haines. While some progress has been made,  she asserted, but the situation remains precarious, with ongoing hostilities likely to continue unabated. This sobering assessment underscores thighlights the ongoing hurdles in stabilizing the region and mitigate the threat posed by insurgent groups supported by external actors like Iran.
What actions should the Biden administration take in response to the escalating maritime attacks by the Houthis?
Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi’s recent actions aren’t merely isolated maneuvers but calculated moves to bolster his domestic standing and expand his influence across the Middle East. As the Biden administration braces for potential escalation, the resurgence of maritime attacks in the Red Sea, Mediterranean, and Indian Ocean demands a robust response. The Houthi’s relentless assault underscores the urgency for Washington to ramp up preemptive strikes against their military installations in Yemen through Operation Prosperity Guardian. However, such measures risk drawing criticism and pressure   from regional and European powers, who are concurrently crafting their security arrangements for the Red Sea. With little prospect for fruitful negotiations, the focus shifts towards dismantling Houthi bases within Yemen—an arduous endeavor fraught with challenges. Yet, amidst mounting tensions, it’s imperative to confront the Houthi threat head-on to safeguard regional stability and global trade.
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