The fall of Bashar al-Assad in the early hours of Sunday, December 8, 2024, marked a significant turning point for the Middle East. The conflict, which began on October 7, 2023, escalated with the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, and the near-total destruction of Hezbollah, eventually reaching Syria. Just one hour after the signing of the peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel, Syrian protesters launched a swift and expansive operation to seize Damascus. Within ten days, Damascus fell, bringing an end to the 54-year rule of the Assad family. The liberation of Saydnaya Prison and the celebrations of Syrians worldwide heralded the dawn of a new era for the region.
What Lies Ahead for the Middle East?
The critical question now is what happens next after Assad’s fall in Syria. Which country might be next in line for change? This was the question addressed by former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt during a conference in Paris, just hours before Assad’s regime collapsed. Speaking at the “Future of Iran” conference, hosted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), Verhofstadt expressed his perspective:
“We hope that, considering the ongoing developments worldwide and especially in the Middle East, the dominoes are beginning to fall. After Syria, what’s the next stage? In my opinion, it’s Iran — the next domino.”
What Must Change in European Policy?
Verhofstadt criticized the leadership of the European Union for their failed strategies and appeasement policies toward Iran. He emphasized the necessity of four crucial policy changes:
- Recognizing the IRGC as a Terrorist Organization: “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) must immediately be designated as a terrorist organization, something that has yet to be done,” Verhofstadt stated, despite 5 adopted resolutions by the European Parliament in the past 2 years for this action.
- Imposing Sanctions on Iran’s Oil and Banking Industries: “The second component of this strategy must be the direct sanctioning of Iran’s oil and banking industries. These are the backbone of the current regime, providing the financial resources to sustain its oppressive governance.”
- Expanding Personal Sanctions on Regime Officials: “Personal sanctions against those responsible within the regime must be increased. Today, only a limited number of sanctions exist, targeting approximately 200 or 250 individuals. What are we discussing here? Thousands of individuals within the oppressive Iranian regime must immediately face personal sanctions.”
- Recognizing a Democratic Alternative for Iran: “Lastly, and most importantly, we must acknowledge that a viable and democratic alternative exists for Iran. Structural dialogue with this alternative is crucial. The West — neither Europe nor the US — has done this so far. Standing with the Iranian people and their organized resistance is no longer a political choice; it is a moral imperative.”
The Overthrow of Assad: A Catalyst for Change in Iran
The fall of Assad’s regime, which for 45 years bolstered Iran’s religious fascism, signals a turning point. The dark days of the region are nearing an end, and the time has come for the overthrow of Iran’s clerical regime. With the collapse of Iran’s “strategic depth” in Syria, the regime can no longer sustain its fronts in other countries in the region. This loss undermines Iran’s ability to project power across the Middle East, particularly in countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, where it has historically relied on proxy forces and financial support to maintain influence. The resulting vulnerability weakens Tehran’s regional alliances and disrupts its long-term strategy for establishing hegemony.
“Today, everyone can witness how Assad’s armed forces, which enjoyed the greatest support from the Iranian regime, were dismantled. The Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei’s intelligence and security forces will face no better fate in the face of the Iranian people’s uprising and organized resistance,” declared Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the NCRI. On her X account, she wrote: “The notorious Saydnaya Prison north of Damascus has been conquered by Syrian rebels. The liberation of Evin Prison and other detention centers of the Iranian regime of executions and massacres by rebellious youth and the PMOI is not far away.”
A New Era for the Middle East
The overthrow of Assad’s dictatorship has accelerated the momentum toward the fall of the Iranian regime. Assad’s regime had long served as a critical linchpin in Tehran’s strategy to maintain its influence in the region by providing a stable corridor for arms, finances, and logistical support to its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Assad gone, Iran loses this vital ally, leaving its regional operations fragmented and its ambitions for dominance significantly weakened. This shift exposes the regime’s vulnerabilities, making it more susceptible to both internal dissent and external pressures. This pivotal moment in history underscores that standing with the Iranian people is both a moral obligation and a strategic necessity for the restoration of peace, balance, and justice in the turbulent Middle East. The changes that now seem inevitable may unfold sooner than anyone expects.
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