Brussels (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – On Sunday February 23, Germany held parliamentary elections. Center-right Christian Democrats won with 28.6% of votes, followed by the far-right party (AfD) at 20.8%. Friedrich Merz is likely to be the next chancellor.
Early election results from Germany show that, as polls anticipated, Christian Democrats Union (CDU) won most of the votes. Friederich Merz, leader of the party and now likely to be the next chancellor, said he wants to form a government by Easter, so by mid April.
During the electoral campaign Merz had already excluded forming a coalition with the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD). To get a majority in Parliament, the next government might work with the Social Democratic Party, for now still led by outgoing chancellor Scholz.
A likely scenario could be a conservative government in partnership with left-oriented parties, similar to the “grand coalition” of former Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, not all the SPD members trust Merz, especially given his recent and stricter views on immigration (supported by AfD). To actually form a strong coalition, the next chancellor might therefore have to compromise and negotiate on some issues.
CDU’s goals list
Merz promises to bring stability back to Germany, given the uncertain times that the country went through in the past few months. Scholz’s government became unpopular among voters and it hasn’t had support from the Bundestag (German Parliament) in three months.
One of the main focuses of his campaign has been the economy. His “workers first” agenda has tax-reliefs measures on top of the list, together with a plan of “new freedom to unlock potential.” This includes cutting corporate taxes to a maximum of 25%, reducing red tape and bureaucracy for companies, and supporting industrial digitalization.
Other CDU priorities are safety and immigration. The party promised to speed up trials for criminal law violations, deploy more security cameras and abolish the previous government cannabis’ law. They believe that this law, which last year legalized possession of cannabis for personal use for people older than 18, exposes children to drug addiction.
On immigration, CDU proposes stricter regulation. “We must decide again who can come to us and who can stay,” reads the party’s election program. After the knife attack by an Afghani asylum seeker in South Germany last month, Merz proposed a strict update on German immigration law that would make it harder for immigrants to obtain residence permits and would have limited family conjunction rights.
This law eventually did not pass, but it had the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
Global implications
What the European Union can expect is more pushback on EU asylum law. One of the goals of the winning party is to change that regulation, and require that asylum seekers who want to come to Europe should first be transferred to a safe third country, then have their request processed, and finally possibly cross EU borders.
The CDU also supports more EU competitiveness and any measure that would strengthen Europe’s position in the international scene, a goal overall in line with that of the European Commission.
Independence from the United States, especially on defence, is one of Merz’s priorities. After Trump’s comments last week, Merz said that it is clear that the new administration does not care much about the fate of Europe. Referring also to member of US Government Elon Musk’s endorsement for the far-right party AfD, he said that
“The interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and impertinent than the interventions we have seen from Moscow, so we are under massive pressure from two sides.”
From the White House, Germany’s election results were seen positively.
This election fits into a global trend of a strong comeback of conservative governments in the Western world. Next in line is probably Canada, which as of now is likely to hold early elections in Spring and have Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as next Prime Minister.
