The recent election in Germany has created a political earthquake and has left behind a fragmented society which can serve as both a positive and a negative example for the Western left. The result is disastrous for the Ampel coalition led by Olaf Scholz. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), once again a part of German politics, has been excluded from the parliament. The Greens, who have sought to excuse themselves from the responsibilities for the economic failures of the country, have been kicked out to the shadows. The conservative CDU/CSU, headed by Friedrich Merz, has won the election and has the population’s support to form a government. Nevertheless, the future is hazy, and the only feasible coalition seems to be a “grand coalition” between the SPD and the CDU/CSU, which has been weakened by recent elections.
Germany is at a crossroads. The election outcomes indicate that the voters are fed up with the current politics and have particular concerns with regard to migration, economic doldrums, and bureaucratic slowdown. With over 30% of voters casting their ballots for extreme-left or far-right parties, the electorate has issued a stinging rebuke to the political mainstream and a slap on the face of the political centrism. It is particularly worrying that the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has doubled its support and is now a powerful force in the east of the country. At the same time, the resurrection of the Left Party underscores a broader disenchantment with centrist politics.
For Friedrich Merz, who has gained the chancellorship largely due to the coalition’s failures rather than a sweeping personal mandate, the message is clear: this cannot be politics as usual. Merz, with his extensive political experience and deep commitment to the social market economy and transatlantic alliances, offers a degree of stability and consistency. Once an liability, he has now severed his political ties with Angela Merkel which has enabled him to give a new direction to the CDU. However, his success will depend on his capacity to control the stormy relationship with the declining SPD. The Social Democrats, headed by Lars Klingbeil, must undergo a swift transformation, especially after Scholz could not seize the support of SPD voters’ base. One name to watch is Boris Pistorius, the Defense Minister who stepped back from Scholz and is now seen as a realist who may be able to bring the party back to its feet.
The fall of the FDP and the implosion of Christian Lindner’s leadership mark the beginning of a new chapter for German liberalism. Lindner, who sought to be captain, first mate, and chief navigator all at once, failed to steer his party through the storm. The FDP’s failure to achieve the 5% threshold is a wakeup call not only for political liberals in Germany but also for centrists all over Europe. Liberalism is not dead by any means, but it has to change its ideology and structure if it is to continue to be a significant force in a world of fragmented politics.
Meanwhile, the AfD, which has increased its support to the highest ever, remains unwelcome in German politics. Its lead candidate, Alice Weidel, has captured the sentiments of the voters during the campaign but the party is associated with far right policies and historical revisionism and cannot be considered as a coalition partner. It has links with Putin’s Russia, is against migration, and has authoritarian tendencies, which exclude it from the democratic field. However, it has received a significant increase in support, especially among young people in eastern Germany and cannot be ignored. More than three decades after the reunification, Germany is facing a new division into the west and the east which may change the face of the political scene.
The German political culture has been based on the principle of consensus for many years, but the results of the elections should serve as a lesson: the approach by the lowest common denominator is no longer relevant. If Germany is to become the leader of Europe again, it must face the questions that voters have submitted. Economic stagnation, an overwhelmed social security system, and the inability to manage migration effectively are no longer issues that can be papered over with bureaucratic solutions. The democratic parties of Weimar Germany also failed to deliver during their time in power and they were defeated. It is not allowed for today’s political leaders to make the same mistake.
Merz, the real test starts now. The first sign of whether he has really understood the message that voters are sending will be his negotiations with the SPD. Coalition agreements in Germany are traditionally huge, sloppy documents, full of undefined terms and minor policy proposals. However, the voters are demanding something else – strong actions, not a half-hearted attempt to find a compromise for the sake of stability. Merz has to decide whether his government will be one of safe continuity or one of real change. If he fails to regain the confidence of the people, the extremes will keep on growing and the next election may produce even more extreme results.
Democracy in Germany is not in imminent danger, however, it is being fundamentally tested. Since 1949 Germany has been one of the most stable countries, but the erosion of the political centre should be of concern to anyone who is worried about the future of liberal democracy. If the radical elements on the left and right of the spectrum continue to capture votes, the centre will become an unruleable mess. That is the real challenge for Friedrich Merz—and for Germany as a whole. The election is over, but the task of restoring confidence has only just begun.
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