“Growing sense” that Europe cannot rely on the U.S. for security – survey

Public support for expanding the EU eastwards is “slipping,” says a major new survey.

It found that majorities in most countries continue to view war torn Kyiv either as an “ally” or a “necessary partner”.

However, there is “markedly less enthusiasm and consensus” on subjects of long-term support such as sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after the war and expanding the EU eastwards.

One of the other most striking revelations from the dataset is that 13% of the European public have come to consider the U.S. as a rival, and 12% as a direct adversary.

 There is a “growing sense” that Europe cannot rely on the U.S. for security and defence, according to polling by the respected  European Council on Foreign Relations.

It reveals deep European distrust in the U.S. ahead of the G7 and NATO summits.

Details of the study were revealed on 10 June.

Majorities in almost all the countries surveyed by ECFR (apart from Bulgaria) expressed a belief that “at least some of the European countries” would come to their aid if they were attacked.

Commenting on the survey, ECFR polling lead, co-author and senior policy fellow, Pawel Zerka, said:“Against a backdrop of criticism and aggressive behaviour by the Trump administration, European citizens have become increasingly pragmatic about their own security.

“Public demand for greater self-reliance and the need to hedge against American guarantees, particularly on defence, have created a window for European leaders to go further and faster in building common systems of security. It’s an opportunity that political leaders cannot afford to miss.”

The poll says there is now widespread demand for the EU to pursue a policy of strategic autonomy on defence matters. Europeans have become increasingly supportive of higher national defence spending from 2025 to 2026.

Europeans are prepared to consider taking on common debt to fund defence spending. On average, 47% support this proposition – while 35% oppose it.

Many favour reducing Europe’s dependence on U.S. military hardware. In almost every country polled, most respondents indicated a preference for their country to reduce its strategic dependence on U.S. military hardware.

There is strong support for Ukraine, but clear limits on what the backing for Kyiv should look like. After four years of war, majorities or pluralities in all of the countries surveyed by ECFR see Ukraine as either an “ally” or a “necessary partner”.

The poll concludes that:

• Confidence in the United States as an ally – or even as a reliable partner – has collapsed, as a consensus emerges that the U.S. would not ride to Europe’s aid even if NATO partners were under attack.
• Declining trust in Washington as a reliable ally is prompting European countries to revisit their views on defence spending, weapons procurement, and local defensive alliances.
• Many respondents are still supportive of Kyiv while remaining unenthusiastic about more ambitious forms of support and unconvinced by plans for EU expansion.

Jana Kobzova, co-author, ECFR senior policy fellow and co-director of the think tank’s European Security Programme, added, “Across the continent, there is clear support for reducing dependence on Washington. Europeans are increasingly open to higher defence spending and, crucially, show a striking degree of confidence that neighbouring countries would come to their aid in a crisis.

“Our research also shows that while the Europeans continue to support Ukraine, public consensus to bring the country to the EU in the current context is missing. While keeping the accession as the goal, Europeans need to get more creative about interim mechanisms for engaging Kyiv, such as sectoral integration or synergies in defence cooperation and deterrence of NATO’s eastern flank.”

ECFR’s new survey report is underpinned by YouGov, Mandate Research and Turu-uuringute public opinion data collected in 15 European countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) between 30 April and 19 May 2026.