The relations between the United States and Israel have always held immense importance in international politics for several decades. But as shifting power dynamics and policy debates unfold, one provocative question looms: Can the state of Israel survive without the military support of its closest friend, the United States?
Because of its security threats, especially from its neighbours in the Middle East, Israel has depended on America’s security assistance since the 1970s. The $3.8 billion annual defence assistance has equipped Israel with new technologies, effective weapons and the best anti-missile systems, including the Iron Dome.
This help has not only sustained Israel’s qualitative military superiority in the region but exacerbated the unswerving American commitment. However, with the increasing demand for reconsidering foreign aid in the United States as well as changing international alignments, the issue of Israel’s military constitution is far from being an option which is an inevitable reality.
Updated defence budget context
In 2025-2026, Israel is drastically increasing its defence budget by about $12.5 billion (42 billion shekels) to deal with pressures stemming from increased security threats, in addition to its already large and increasing annual defence budget, which is now at more than 110 billion shekels (~9% of GDP). The defence budget increase will also enable the national military to expedite the procurement of weapons systems, missile interceptors, and upgrades in technology necessary for real independent capability for its defence forces.
Israel has certainly achieved some level of self-sustainability. It has a robust defence industry and a level of technology and nuclear power that allows it to be classified as a superpower. Drones, networked warfare for any threat, Israel has developed systems to mitigate threats. However, it has raised questions about the depth of that efficiency in the long run and how well Israel would address unexpected threats should financial or intelligence support become variable or non-existent.
Domestic defence industry advances
Israel has hastened its path towards mass production of the Arrow missile interceptor system, originally developed with the U.S., but now produced in Israel. It has been known to have a high interception success rate, offering Israel a degree of improvement in its ability to defend itself independently.
The same potential exists when considering the future absence of American aid and its impact on the regional balance of power. Would other countries within the region assume that they could take a chance to attempt to dislodge Israel from being the preeminent power in the region? Or, would Israel’s will to emotionally exist push it to embrace looking at other friends in a world that is becoming more multi-polar?
This inquiry poses a challenge, as it requires the world community, and its organizational structure, to reflect on one of the most significant global partnerships. Can Israel “go it alone,” or has it always been America that has supported it? This question has great significance, because it might reimagine a policing and protection style of global governance in the future, depending on the answer.
Historical Context of U.S.-Israel Military Support
Since the establishment of Israel in 1948, the U.S. has been one of its staunchest allies. Military support began in earnest after the 1967 Six-Day War, with the U.S. providing advanced weaponry, intelligence sharing, and financial aid to bolster Israel’s defence. Key milestones include:
1973 Yom Kippur War
Emergency military shipments from the US aided in reversing the battle for Israel. The US airlifted military supplies to Israel at this important moment as part of Operation Nickel Grass.
This not only made Israel a more effective military warrior, but it also signaled US willingness to assist Israel in times of existential peril with the event of war. The outcome of the war fundamentally shaped US-Israel relations moving forward and set the stage for more intimacy in strategic relations.
1981 Memorandum of Understanding
Cemented military and strategic cooperation. This formal agreement codified the collaboration on defence technology and strategic planning. It included joint training exercises, intelligence sharing, and co-development of advanced weapons. The memorandum opened the door for more agreements and a further deepening of the alliance on many fronts.
2007-2028 Memorandum
A $38 billion agreement to ensure annual military assistance. This deal was historic, and the largest in United States history in guaranteeing long-term assistance to Israel for defense. These funds were utilized for the purchase of things, such as F-35 combat aircraft missiles, defense systems, and other advanced components that are pertinent to providing a QE in the Levant region. This proof of such an arrangement exemplifies the highly defined nature of the relationship and the relationship between the United States and Israel, due in part to the similarities of each state.
This support has made Israel one of the most technologically equipped military forces on the globe. But can you imagine what would happen if this partnership was no longer existing? Incidentally, the question is far from abstract; it raises considerations of how Israel and its regional and world environment might look geopolitically, economically, and socially in that case. Previously, the aid has offered Israel more than just military prepositions; it has given it a strategic shield to deter its opponents and boost its position in the region.
Congressional Military Budget Support
Moreover, the passage of the 2026 U.S. National Defense Authorization Act not only includes a total of over $100 billion of military spending, which includes funding to upgrade Israel’s military technologies, including counter-drone technologies, anti-tunnel capabilities, and AI-enabled warfare technologies, but the package also demonstrates the ongoing U.S. political commitment to support Israel’s military edge.
But consider the potential punishment if this bilateral agreement would cease to exist. Even as the question is not an abstract one, it raises important questions as to how Israel and their environment and world region might appear geopolitically, economically, and socially in that case.
For Israel, the aid has given Israel not only more military pre-positioning, but it also has allowed Israel to develop a strategic umbrella under which to deter its opponents and enhance its strategic position in the region.
Israel’s Military Capabilities
Israel is widely recognised as a regional military powerhouse. Key strengths include:
Technological Superiority
Israel has continually created new systems, including the Iron Dome Missile Defense System, the David’s Sling Surface Air Missile System, and the Arrow Missile Defense System. Among these, the Iron Dome attracted the world’s attention. It protects against and intercepts rockets which would kill many. The David’s Sling and Arrow increase that protection with layered security for many different kinds of threats, including drone threats and ballistic missiles. This shows that Israel can adapt to new security threats.
Cyber warfare capabilities puts Israel with leading countries. Although Israel’s prowess in cyber-warfare is well-known, their “Cyber Iron Dome” protects critical infrastructure against cyber-attacks. Much credit for that technology goes to Unit 8200, an elite army intelligence unit of the Israel Defence Forces that is responsible for designing continuity of life solutions for Israel, and in some cases the international marketplace. This technology guarantees Israel’s relevance to new warfighting.
Nuclear Deterrence
While Israel has not formally disclosed its nuclear capability, it is generally thought to have a strong nuclear capability, serving as an important deterrent against threats to its existence. The policy of nuclear ambiguity has allowed Israel to deter its adversaries without triggering nuclear arms races in the region. As an asset of last resort, nuclear weapons afford Israel some broader defence mechanism to survive a significant threat to its existence.
Highly Trained Personnel
Enforced compulsory enlistment guarantees a consistent flow of prepared soldiers. Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) are noted for their discipline, creativity and flexibility. The IDF training procedures take particular care to emphasise critical thinking and prompt decision-making, enabling soldiers to navigate the complexities of ever-changing battlefields. This element of human capital underpins the military effectiveness of Israel.
Self-Sufficient Defense Industry
A significant proportion of military equipment used in Israel comes from domestic companies like Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Elbit Systems, which develop world-class technologies abroad and are beneficial not only for the Israeli economy, but also lessening want for overseas purchasing.
Just as the cultural tendency of innovation and perseverance works in tandem with defence industry performance in Israel, American support adds to these capabilities, especially in the fields of intelligence, finance, and advanced technologies that advance capabilities in the weapon space.
The mixture of foreign support and local capability offers Israel a remarkable defence capability against a range of threats. However, apart from American support, there are other issues that will challenge the sides will encounter lots of trouble continuing to possess the qualitative edge, especially in areas like hypersonic missile technologies and AI, in systems that are taking place on modern battlefields.
Impact of U.S. Military Aid Cuts
American support enhances these capabilities, especially in areas like the intelligence community, financial gain, and high-tech weapons. Without this assistance, Israel would struggle to maintain its qualitative military edge and global technological leadership, particularly in hypersonic missiles and in the use of artificial intelligence in modern combat settings.
Lifting the spending cap and placing more fiscal pressure on Israel’s well-off economy would put defence on a collision course with social services and infrastructure. Israel may also find it necessary to broaden its alliances with countries like India, China, and Russia, especially in the wake of strengthening its relationships with Gulf states as part of the Abraham Accords.
Economic Implications of Losing U.S. Aid
The U.S. currently provides approximately $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel. Without this aid, Israel would face significant financial challenges, including:
Increased Defense Budget
Israel’s government would need to reallocate funds, potentially impacting social services and infrastructure. Balancing national security with domestic priorities would become a pressing issue, potentially leading to public discontent. Policymakers would face tough choices, from raising taxes to cutting public spending, to fill the funding gap.
Higher Costs for Military Procurement
Without subsidies from the U.S., economists say Israel has no money to buy the high-quality weapons systems it needs without crippling its economy. Israel might have to seek new financing sources due to the belief that sustaining and modernising assets such as F-35 jets, missile defence systems, and naval platforms might become significantly more expensive.
This may include accelerating arms sales, a strategy that may raise eyebrows over issues related to ethics and the implications of international politics. The secondary impacts would not confine themselves to the defence industry but can influence competitiveness and innovation-based industries in the country’s global market.
Investor confidence could also be reduced if the United States were to withdraw its support from the perspective that the perceived level of geopolitical risk rises. Nonetheless, the Israeli economy has proved a very hard hit, and the country boasts of key sectors such as technology and farming to alleviate some of these problems. Opening new outlets for international trade and expanding regional integration could be an opportunity to supplement the budgetary deficits.
Geopolitical Ramifications
A withdrawal of U.S. support could shift the balance of power in the Middle East:
Regional Threats
Potential enemies such as Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas may learn some form of provocation within the conflict. Israel could very well lose a lot of the force that it holds over its adversaries if the United States stops funding it. This could generate more tensions and potentially more chances of showdowns with the military. The loss of that support could also weaken Israel’s influence and its capacity to impose order, undermining regional stability.
New Alliances
In order to make up for lost influence, Israel may attempt to engage more with nations such as India, China, or Russia. These partnerships could bring new opportunities but new issues as well because partnering with non-western states might put pressure on Israel’s bonds with Western countries.
Managing such changes in geopolitical realities would, therefore, call for efficient diplomacy and foreign policy. The geopolitical map would be changing with such a situation, creating a need for Israel to start devising new ways of enhancing order within the region.
Extending the diplomatic achievements of the Abraham Accords, Israel may establish qualitatively new cooperation with the Gulf countries, thus forming a new anti-threat vector. Such ties could have been a buffer against this transition and guarantee that despite the shifting dynamics, Israel remains a sought-after player in Middle East politics.
Social Media Perspectives
Social media platforms reflect a broad spectrum of opinions on this issue. Here’s how the conversation unfolds:
Pro-Israel Narratives:
“Throughout one of our most difficult periods, Israelis have shown up and proven just how resilient our country is.”
“US tax dollars shouldn’t be funding Israel’s human rights abuses. That’s it.”
Critiques of U.S. Policy:
“Israel has been the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign aid since its founding, receiving about $310 billion (adjusted for inflation) in total economic …”
“We believe continuing to transfer offensive weapons to the Israeli government prolongs the suffering of.”
Neutral Stances:
“The destruction of Gaza is making Israel less safe. President Biden’s continuing support for Israel’s actions is also making the world less safe …”
Strategic Alternatives for Israel
If U.S. military support were to end, Israel could explore several strategies:
Building Up Regional Partnerships
Frameworks such as the Abraham Accords might open the possibility of the formation of defence-related cooperation with the countries of the Persian Gulf.
The establishment of cooperation in sectors such as the exchange of information, mutual training, and countermeasures, as well as in the sphere of technologies, can improve the security of the region. The civilian population of those nations would also see these alliances as evidence of the fact that Israel is a peace-loving nation which seeks to stabilise its relations with other countries in its region.
Expanding Defense Exports
One way of recuperating the financial blemish could be through selling even more weapons manufactured in the Jewish state. Taking into consideration Israel’s brand as an innovative nation, it could expand to uncharted territories from Southeast Asia to Africa. Extending a portfolio of defence exports would not only increase income but also deepen partnerships with the purchasing states.
Enhanced Self-Reliance
Expanding the investment of the domestic projects in R&D to minimize reliance on imports. In this way, Israel could preserve its qualitative advantage while stimulating economic development by concentrating on domestic resources. This transition could be facilitated by, for example, government-funded innovation centres and cooperation between the state and private businesses that could help ensure that Israel maintains competitiveness in this sphere.
These strategies demonstrate that Israel had been very inventive and very resourceful. It goes without doubt that sometime in the future, Israel will face some hardships in the course of executing its policies. Still, given its resilience in adversity, the nation should be able to overcome this hurdle and achieve success in the exercise. This is the only formula that shows Israel how it can advance cautiously by maintaining its security and sovereignty.
Public Opinion in Israel and the U.S.
Polls show mixed opinions on the necessity of U.S. military support:
In Israel
Most Israelis may appreciate the American aid, but they have confidence in their country’s capability to cope and exist without it. Such an attitude is indicative of the professional spirit of invincibility that is deeply rooted in the Israel Defense Forces as an organization of years of combating threats to its existence.
However, such an attitude presupposes the fear of the economic and geopolitical consequences that may follow a lack of American support. It presents the task of searching for the right measure of autonomy and solidarity as a core subject of debate in public political discussion.
In the U.S.
Overall, approval of aid to Israel has shrunk in the past few years, and initially, support among young Americans was low. Such a generational shift is an important shift in people’s attitudes toward foreign policy as young people are more focused on their domestic affairs than on international relationships. Discussions over the morality and feasibility of such assistance have also emerged and have impacted politicians and the population actively.
These perspectives speak to change in the nature of the relationship between the United States and Israel. When these concerns are resolved through proper communication or understanding, the two nations will secure their future relations. Perhaps it is time to learn from other grassroots organisations, students, or scholars, for example, to open a more productive discussion on this important issue.
Conclusion
Israel could remain relevant without the support of the American military, but it won’t be easy. It has tactical advantages, an integrating defence industry, and adaptability to the strategic level that form the basis for this approach. However, if this aid is removed, major shifts will be required inside the economy and beyond.
Discussions come up to this day, whether on the news, on the ground or in groups on social media, which shows that this is a complicated relationship. Finally, it can be said that the further development of U.S. and Israel relations will be defined by their actions in relation to these challenges, such as learning how to address the dualisms mentioned above in the modern world.
