In the protracted skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah, both parties have been damaged severely during the past 13 months. The situation for both of them is unsustainable.
Israel’s north is emptied of its citizens who are now internally displaced and rockets keep raining on its cities and military facilities. Israel’s economy is in tatters. It is a pariah state with its leader accused of being war criminals.
Hezbollah is bereft of its entire leadership, is in complete disarray, and is losing favor with the local population who are savaged by the IsraeIi air force and infantry. Both parties need to take a breather and regroup.
But the potential for an imminent resumption of hostilities is very high. Iran will not hesitate to use Hezbollah as a human shield in the face of retaliatory attacks by Israel. Hezbollah cannot abandon Hamas for long: its raison d’etre is the resistance to Israeli occupation. Israel cannot accept the very existence of Hezbollah, never mind how far it withdraws its troops into northern Lebanon. War will erupt again and soon.
There have been several such agreements and UN resolutions over the past three decades. None of them held water.
The core issue cannot be resolved: a majority of the Palestinians want their land back and demand the abolition of the state of Israel and the expulsion of most Israelis. Both Hamas and Hezbollah – backed by Iran – are committed to these long-term goals.
Israel must defend itself by military means because the alternative is extinction. The two state solution is a pipedream. So, the parties are doomed to repeated cycles of devastating violence until one of them ethnically cleanses the other. There will be no permanent peace until then.
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