Israel has finally attacked Iran. But why now?
There has been a qualitative shift in Iranian policy in the wake of the decimation of the leadership of its proxy in the Middle East, Hizbullah. Iran has made a strategic decision to manufacture nuclear weapons and the missile heads needed to carry and deliver them all the way to Israel. Iran ramped up its uranium enrichment and started to assemble the warheads. It denied access to IAEA inspectors. There was no way Israel could accept this existential risk.
There is also a rare window opportunity to realize Israel’s long-term goal of incapacitating Iran. Iran’s air defenses have been largely taken down in a previous retaliatory Israeli strike in October 2024. Iran’s long arms on Israel’s borders are in extreme disarray and much weakened. There is a leadership vacuum in Iran, great social unrest, and it is in the throes of a massive economic crisis.
Israel is attempting to decapitate the military and nuclear leadership of Iran, but Iran is not Hizbullah. It is a regional power with great manpower depth of and expertise (multiple replacements for each person taken out). Such targeted assassinations may delay the processes involved in the development of nuclear weapons, but not end or reverse them. Iran is destined to become a nuclear power and Israel better start getting used to the idea – the way India has accommodated itself to the nuclear ambitions of its bitter enemy, Pakistan.
So, what’s next?
Iran is bound to retaliate with missiles and drones, but its response is likely to fall far short of its threats. Its air force is no match to the Israeli air force and its air defenses are ruined. Israel has very effective anti-missile defenses, though no real defenses against drones (no nation has such defenses, as Ukraine has demonstrated in its recent attack on Russia).
Sooner or later, as Israel continues to decimate Iran’s military and nuclear facilities, Iran’s retaliation will fizzle out and it will seek mediation in order to put a stop to the carnage. The US, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar (possibly with Russia and the EU) will then step in and broker a deal which will include the effective denuclearization of Iran. Of course, any such agreement is doomed to failure in the long-run, but in the short-run it will afford Iran some breathing space. Israel will have demonstrated once again that it is the sole superpower in the region and not to be trifled with.
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