Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper), Saturday’s events seem to have been met with resounding optimism. If the Ukrainian counter-offensive was a promising start to weakening the Russian invasion, Prigozhin’s coup is seen as an indication that Putin’s end is well and truly near.
Despite its ultimate failure, such optimism seems well placed: the symbolic value of this “putsch” greatly weakens the legitimacy of invasion and as a result, of the Kremlin.
Wagner’s mercenaries successfully took over the southern military headquarters without much resistance, and all this while Rostov’s inhabitants cheered them on. It isn’t hard to envisage effects on the morale of Russian troops. How can military leaders unable to protect headquarters against a private army be trusted to facilitate a safe invasion? Especially one that already seems to be going awry.
To add fuel to the fire, there appears to be no real punishment for Prigozhin, or any mercenaries for that matter. While Putin initially warned that “action will be taken”, these words seem hollow. Mercenaries are set to go back to their camps in Ukraine, while the warlord is to leave for Belarus. And this compromise was only achieved through negotiations performed by Lukashenko (Belarus’s leader), and not Putin himself. To soldiers and civilians alike, this is an unequivocal sign of weakness. To the Kremlin’s powerful, this is an indication that attempted coups can go unpunished…
It therefore seems that Putin’s regime (and the Ukraine invasion), have reached a low point. But this potential demise is not necessarily suggestive of a peaceful future. It must be considered the kind of person capable of replacing the Russian president. It is hard to argue Prigozhin, a criminal, famously brutal and uncompromising, would be a net improvement. Much like him, most people capable of launching an assault on the current power have reached their privileged position through moral compromise and violence.
Any hope for a long-term improvement in Russia’s situation (and therefore a more peaceful future) is therefore put somewhat into perspective. Sure, the war is turning tides for the better. Sure, Putin is likely uncomfortable. But in the long term, any successful coup is likely to result in yet another ruthless leader.
