London, 3 October, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – Nearly half of British voters support the UK returning to the European Union, according to a large new survey released as Prime Minister Andy Burnham opens a wider debate over Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with Brussels. The UK EU rejoin poll found 49% support re-entry, compared with 28.5% opposed.
The findings come days after Burnham said Britain should examine a range of options for its future relationship with the EU, including potentially rejoining. However, the government has made no decision to seek membership and Burnham has indicated that another referendum is not imminent.
Megapoll finds stronger backing for closer EU ties
The Messina Group surveyed 11,461 people between 12 and 24 September, with the sample weighted by the result of the 2016 EU referendum. Respondents were presented with seven potential models for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc.
Rejoining received the highest support at 49%. Keeping the existing relationship while removing as many trade barriers as possible was backed by 48.2%, while 47.1% supported entering a customs union.
Associate membership attracted 45.5% support and joining the single market 45.1%. Moving further away from the EU received substantially less backing, at 27.9%, while 41.2% opposed that option.
The survey also reported that 52.4% believed Britain had been wrong to leave the EU, while 29.7% said the decision had been right. Some 54.9% described Brexit as a failure.
Labour electoral modelling comes with caveats
The UK EU rejoin poll also tested political messages associated with different forms of closer European ties. According to the reported results, Labour’s vote share increased by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points under the tested scenarios.
Those figures are survey-based modelling rather than an election forecast. Actual voting behaviour would depend on factors including the terms of any proposed agreement, competing party campaigns and the wider political and economic environment.
Separate YouGov polling published in June found 55% support for rejoining. However, support fell to 35% when respondents were told Britain could not retain its former EU opt-outs, demonstrating how potential membership terms can significantly affect public opinion.
Burnham opens debate on Britain’s European future
Labour said after Burnham’s conference speech that the government would hold another summit with the EU later this year aimed at strengthening economic ties, reducing trade barriers and expanding opportunities for young people.
The party said Burnham regarded those measures as a starting point rather than the limit of Britain’s ambitions and would set out more about his preferred long-term relationship with Europe later this year.
Downing Street has separately confirmed that Burnham and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed preparations for the forthcoming UK-EU summit during a meeting in September. Their talks covered security, migration and unfair competition in global markets.
Rejoining would remain a complex process
The UK EU rejoin poll adds to evidence that British attitudes towards Brexit have changed significantly since the 2016 referendum. More in Common research published in June similarly found that half of Britons said they would vote to rejoin in another referendum, although concerns remained over sovereignty and the conditions Britain might receive.
A return would not simply restore Britain’s previous membership arrangements. Any future application would involve negotiations with the EU and its member states, with politically sensitive questions likely to include free movement, regulatory alignment and Britain’s former opt-outs.
What happens next?
The immediate focus is the government’s planned UK-EU summit later this year. Burnham has said Britain’s longer-term choices should be considered as part of a wider reassessment of the country’s relationship with Europe.
No referendum or formal application to rejoin the EU has been announced. The new polling instead intensifies a political debate that is increasingly shifting from whether Britain should maintain closer European ties to what form that relationship should eventually take.
