Will the Rwandan president Paul Kagame step down or will he seek another term?

Kseniya Sabaleuskaya
Rwandan president Paul Kagame

Belarus (Brussels Morning Newspaper), The genocide in Rwanda, which took place in 1994 changed the country’s history before and then. In 100 days, 800,000 Tutsi minority, moderate Hutu and Twa had been killed in a bloody ethnic cleansing by Hutu militias. Millions more fled Rwanda to the neighboring countries in fear of becoming next murdered in chaotic violence. The ending to the Hutu’s government’s planned extermination came to an end, when the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) took over the capital of Rwanda, Kigali.

After the RPF took control of the country, it met several major challenges. Around 30% of the entire population was murdered, and violence, chaos, and fear have shrouded Rwanda. The economy was devastated, a major part of the infrastructure was destroyed, and social tensions remained and could flare up at any moment.

To improve the situation of the state, which was officially recognized as a failed state, the Rwandan Patriotic Front started with the establishment of a temporary government and highly efficient police patrol to prevent further violence and to catch criminals guilty of the genocide. Those, who committed the biggest atrocities against the Rwandan population were trialed by the International Criminal Court. Although not every person, who was accused of crimes during the 1994 genocide was trialed fairly, due to the very complex political and economic situation in Rwanda, this was one of the best solutions. At the same time, Rwanda has been given enormous amounts of humanitarian aid from the United Nations and several European countries, which helped the government to rebuild part of the infrastructure, including primary schools and hospitals.

In the year 2000, former military officer and commander of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, Paul Kagame become the president of the state. As a victim of the Rwandan genocide, who escaped with his family to Southern Uganda and had been living in a refugee camp, Paul Kagame had found himself a military. He became a senior officer, later participating in the overthrow of the Ugandan military government. After spending several years as a senior Ugandan army officer, Paul Kagame has decided to join the Rwandan Patriotic Front thereafter becoming its leader. 

As the president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame has established a plan for the development of the state, known as vision 2020. The plan outlined six main priorities to make Rwanda a middle-income country in just 20 years. The priorities included: good governance, an efficient state, skilled human capital, a vibrant private sector, a world-class physical infrastructure, modern agriculture, and livestock. Rwanda lacks natural resources, which is why the government makes the abilities of its nation a priority number one. The government put lots of effort into improving the educational system by opening new schools and implementing a 12-year mandatory education, which greatly increased the number of children possessing basic education. Another step was made in advancing the healthcare system. A huge amount of aid already helped the government to rebuild destroyed and to build new hospitals, however, the RPF focused this time on better training of its doctors and healthcare workers so that the country’s citizens could receive high-quality medical help. Above that, the RPF provided a system of healthcare insurance with a low cost, to ensure that every Rwandan will receive medical help. Those, who are not able to pay for the insurance, can get medical services for free.

Aside from educational and healthcare systems, Paul Kagame’s administration provided highly trained police forces, who were working efficiently, providing safety in the cities. The National Police Office provided emergency toll-free numbers for cases, including abuse by police officers, corruption, and other emergencies. Consequently, Rwanda has one of the lowest crime rates on the African continent.

Investments in the infrastructure, including road networks and hydropower plants improved several sectors of the economy at once. Hydropower plants provided electricity for the Rwandan people and new roads made the export and import of products more secure. Additionally, the government built a Kigali International Airport to boost the state’s travel and shipment sectors. As a result, international travel skyrocketed from 531,000 arrivals to the country in 2006 to 1,634,000 in 2019. By building telecommunication lines, Rwanda became one of the leading countries in internet connections on the continent.

To attract more investors to the country, Paul Kagame’s administration simplified rules for setting up a business in Rwanda by reducing taxes and easing regulations for business owners. That significantly increased foreign investment in the country, which helped not only improve the business sector but also opened more workplaces for young Rwandans.

Regardless of Rwanda experiencing an economic miracle due to its efficient government, it cannot be proudly named a democratic state. The president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame established an authoritarian governmental system to prevent the country’s violent past happen in the future. However, such a type of government can be seen positively in the Rwandan case, but it has some negative sides. Since the year 2000, the government has not tolerated any opposition against it and is trying to persecute it in every possible way. Another reason for that is the fact that the current government is represented primarily by the Tutsi representatives, who are now, the same way as several decades ago, in the minority. Above that, it is important to remember that during the 1994 genocide, the RPF committed crimes against Hutu representatives and this fact can provoke another wave of ethnic tensions in the country. For that reason, Paul Kagame’s administration needs to prevent any possible cause of another wave of violence. Consequently, the Rwandan government was and is still persecuting main opposition representatives. Most of them are currently in jail or even murdered. This way government wants to show that every attempt at resistance against Paul Kagame’s administration is punishable. Subsequently, Paul Kagame’s attempts to silence opposition attracts more attention from the international community and world leaders. Above that, after spending more than two decades in the presidential chair Rwandan people as seeking change.

President’s term will finish in the year 2024 and the question remains open: will Paul Kagame finally go to political retirement or will stay for another term? It’s a question that is difficult to answer yes or no as the political arena in Rwanda is dominated by the Rwandan Patriotic Front with Paul Kagame as its leader. At the same time, it is important to understand that despite Paul Kagame’s strict administration, he is still a highly respected local politician.

The main opposition leader, Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, a politician and former leader of the Unified Democratic Forces (a coalition of the Rwandan opposition groups), who was highly respected by the Rwandan society, has been sentenced to 15 years in jail. An official reason for that was named “Forming an armed group to destabilize the country, complicity to acts of terrorism, conspiracy against the government by use of war and terrorism, inciting the masses to revolt against the government, genocide ideology, and provoking divisionism.” Some other opposition representatives have much less support from Rwandans in comparison to Victoire Ingaubire. 

A major part of political experts believes in the continuance of the strong political leadership of Paul Kagame. Nevertheless, rising social and political tensions can quickly change the image of the political arena in Rwanda. At the same time, Paul Kagame’s relatively old age should be taken into account as it can also be a point of change for the country’s political leadership. High political aspirations of other members of the RPF can also be a trigger for the shift in governmental structure. Considering all of the above, the Rwandan nearest election can change the country’s future and no one knows is it for the better or for the worse…

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Kseniya Sabaleuskaya is a multilingual student hailing from Belarus but currently pursuing her academic journey in Poland, where she is fluent in Russian and Belarusian. She is now embarking on an Erasmus adventure in Granada, studying Political Science and Sociology in English while honing her Spanish skills. With a background in tutoring Polish and crafting insightful articles on various political subjects, Kseniya is passionate about researching, analyzing, and drawing her own conclusions.