Brussels (Brussels Morning) – The CyberNext BRU conference in Brussels was a particularly relevant event to attend for information about the current cybersecurity assessment of war-torn Ukraine. Panelist experts have made it clear – cybersecurity in Europe is under tension, and it’s only going to get worse.
“Tomorrow Will Be Worse Than Today”
Often overshadowed by more media friendly military aid sent to Ukraine, the IT and Cyber field has also seen large scale investments within the country. In 2024 alone, €486 million specifically concerning cybersecurity was contributed by allied countries, primarily by the United States and Germany.
Yet, as the conference opened, President and CEO of Cyber Threat Alliance (CTA) Michael Daniel’s warning set the tone: “Tomorrow will be worse than today.” The reality being set here was that even if a peace deal is brokered soon, Ukraine’s cyber war is far from over. Cyberattacks – frequently untraceable or at least hard to attribute to a specific group or country – are expected to persist, fueled by a murky network of private cybercriminals and state-sponsored hackers.
Irina Michalowitz, Senior Director for Policy and Government Affairs at Palo Alto Networks, highlighted a key concern: the increasing role of non-state actors operating on behalf of governments, making attribution nearly impossible while not only giving aggressors plausible deniability, but also access to state level tools and IT power.
Death by a Thousand Cuts
Cyberwarfare is not about single, catastrophic blows – it’s about relentless, calculated pressure. Tanel Sepp, Estonia’s ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy from the ministry of foreign affairs, didn’t need to look far for an example. Estonia itself has been under near-constant attack from Russia, with the infamous 2007 cyber assault serving as a grim reminder of the sheer impact a well-coordinated attack can have over an entire country.
In 2024, the country faced over 6,000 cyberattacks with real-world impact – double the figure from 2023. Sepp emphasized the high amount of manpower required to not only counter these threats but also to respond to them and fix the issues once they have hit their targets.
The damage isn’t always immediate, but it compounds. Every attack weakens infrastructure, exhausts response teams, and forces governments to remain in a constant state of reaction. As the attacks continue to multiply and the pressure is non-stop mounting, the monetary and human investments need to keep up.
Ukraine and Estonia, brothers in cyber arms
Surprisingly, despite the grim statistics, the Sepp remains confident about Ukraine and Estonia’s digital resilience, going as far as to claim that both nations could become “the first fully digital nations in the world”.
Unlike Western countries that see digital transformation as a technical feat which will require time, investments and shifts in public opinions, Estonia and Ukraine have embraced it out of necessity. As the saying goes, “Necessity is the mother of invention”.
The ongoing cyber war has forced both nations to accelerate their adoption of cutting-edge cybersecurity infrastructure, digital governance, and resilient online services – to the point where the small country of Estonia, with a population of only 1.4 million people, has become one of the most important partners in cyber expertise and threat intelligence sharing for Ukraine.
Still, a trust problem in Intelligence sharing
One of the key bottlenecks expressed by the panelists for Ukraine and its allies isn’t funding or technology – it’s trust and optimal Intelligence sharing. Irina Michalowitz noted that intelligence-sharing remains below capabilities, a diplomatic way of saying cooperation is still hindered by hesitation and internal politics.
The private sector’s role was briefly acknowledged, though no concrete details emerged about which European companies might step in – the only private company being mentioned by name being Starlink; here again without a fully developed argument surrounding the Tech giant.
On a more positive note, Estonian’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs representative Sepp confirmed that his country has been actively sharing cyber expertise with Ukraine with little to no complications in the process. The only blemish on these exchanges, he admitted in an interview with Brussels Morning Newspaper, is Budapest’s neutral or occasionally pro-Russian stance which has disrupted broader European cyber defense strategies, preventing a fully unified approach.
