The USA, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) In only about ten months the pre-game positioning phase of the Republican presidential primary will give way to voting and caucus attendance. Almost all the polls show that Donald Trump, one of only two announced candidates, does not have the nomination wrapped up, but has a very good chance to be nominated by his party for the third consecutive time. His strongest challenger appears to be Florida governor Ron DeSantis, but there will be other candidates as well. Nikki Haley announced her candidacy last month. Trump’s vice president Mike Pence is preparing to run, as is Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. As expected, an assortment of Republican senators and governors are exploring running for president as well.
This crowded field is good news for the former President because Trump’s loyal and dependable base of voters, which constitutes somewhere around 30% of the Republican Party, is much larger than that of any other Republican candidate. Additionally, there is no question that Trump has the best ability to stand out among a handful of more conventional and boring Republicans.
Despite this, the punditry seems to have largely decided that Trump will not be the Republican nominee in 2024. This continues a pattern of the media and punditry consistently underestimating Trump going back to 2015. Some of the reason for this stems from the strong dislike that many in the media have for Trump. It is true that Trump is an arrogant bigot, who is contemptuous of American democracy, too lazy to learn the basics about government, and the head of a family of grifting, fascistic vulgarians, but that is not a good reason to underestimate his political skills or prospects.
The real reason so many in the political class do not want to accept that Trump remains so popular is that in addition to all those sterling qualities, Trump is a walking-talking reminder of all that is wrong with the US. Therefore, to accept the enduring strength and influence of Trump, including the reality that his MAGA cult has entirely taken over the Republican Party, is to recognize the depths of the dysfunction that is part of the foundation of American political and economic life-and no card-carrying member of the political establishment wants to do that.
People like Donald Trump do not capture a major political party and get elected to the most powerful political offices in functioning countries. While it is easy, and even necessary, to place a lot of the blame for the state of American policy on the divisive, destructive, self-absorbed, and avaricious presidency, and personality, of Donald Trump, it is more essential to ask what kind of country can make Trump president.
To reckon with that question requires us to wrestle with several of the pathologies that define American society. One of these is the role of inherited wealth. Donald Trump may have played a businessman on television for many years, but he is more accurately understood as an heir. The extreme privilege into which Trump was born made it possible for him to attend-by I mean buy his way into-elite schools, and remain a high-profile public figure throughout his adult life. He built a business empire, and personal reputation, primarily by mismanaging the real estate fortune he inherited while spinning himself as some kind of business genius.
Trump’s political success is also a reflection of the enormous wealth disparities in the US and the failure of either major political party to do anything about that for at least a quarter of a century. White working-class voters have leaned Republican for decades, but Trump has a unique appeal to these voters because of his populist anger and the stress he places on the system being rigged. He generally does not mention that it is rigged in his favor, but voters stuck in multi-generational struggles to survive economically respond to Trump’s tone and contempt for political and economic elites.
It is only white working-class voters who respond in substantial numbers to Trump because, despite some modest success among Latino voters in some parts of the country and a small uptick in support among African Americans, Trump’s appeal is a deeply racist one. Trump’s loyal following reflects the need for many white, straight, Christian America to maintain a demographic hierarchy at any cost. This is obviously the sub-text of his “Make America Great Again” slogan, but also drives the trans-phobia, efforts to limit what Americans can learn in school, and campaigns against wokeness that permeates the GOP. The MAGA cult’s rants about crime in the cities, narratives about globalists trying to destroy America, efforts to regulate women’s bodies, and incitement to violence against trans people all reflect this belief in an America where white, straight Christian men should have a higher level of citizenship than the rest of us.
The Republican Party has evolved in Trump’s image. Bigotry is a big part of that, but so is anger. Unlike previous right-wing presidents like Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush whose pleasant demeanors masked cruel and hurtful policies, Trump and the party he may again lead make no effort to hide their anger and are part of a culture that is increasingly angry. Americans are angry due to their limited economic opportunities, crushing debt from healthcare or education, racism, and bigotry that some face every day and the fear among others that their country is changing too quickly, but at the end of the day, most of our anger is targeted at each other.
The anger, bigotry, and income inequality that runs deeply through American society has enabled Donald Trump’s political career, but recognizing that is not something that many Americans, particularly those who have achieved a substantial degree of success in media or politics want to do. Too many of the pundits attempt to square this circle not by probing the origins, persistence, or possible solutions to these problems, but by treating Donald Trump as a political aberration that can be overlooked. However, just like the anger, dysfunction, and bigotry that characterize the country he seeks again to lead, Donald Trump is not fading away anytime soon.
