Masoud Pezeshkian, known as a moderate conservative with reformist tendencies, has certainly surprised everyone by defeating his hard-line rival, Saeed Jalili. This presidential vote arrived at a critical juncture, marked by heightened tensions both domestically and internationally. The election outcome carries far-reaching implications for Iran’s internal political landscape and its foreign policy and relations with the global community. One crucial aspect to consider is the historically low voter turnout of 49.8 percent. This low participation rate reflects several underlying issues, such as widespread public dissatisfaction with the economic situation and political process, potential disenchantment with the candidates, and a broader sense of apathy or disillusionment. As Pezeshkian steps into his new role, addressing these domestic concerns while managing the complex international arena will be essential. The global community will undoubtedly watch closely to see how this leadership change influences Iran’s path forward.
The election of Pezeshkian signifies a modest shift, endorsed by the highest authority in the Islamic Republic: the Office of the Supreme Leader. Without Khamenei’s approval, Pezeshkian’s victory would have been unattainable. External pressures and internal discontent were pivotal in Khamenei’s decision to support a moderate president focused on internal issues, particularly improving Iran’s economic situation. This strategic move aims to address growing discontent and demonstrate responsiveness to the electorate’s demands, even within the constraints of Iran’s political system. Pezeshkian’s presidency represents a calculated effort to balance maintaining the regime’s stability while cautiously navigating the demands for change from within the nation.
Backed by reformists, Pezeshkian advocates for easing mandatory hijab laws and lifting some internet restrictions, addressing the grievances that fueled the vast “woman, life, freedom” protests. His stance on these issues resonates with a populace yearning for change, especially after the brutal suppression of these demonstrations in 2022. Pezeshkian also aims to mend ties with the West, hoping to alleviate the crippling sanctions that have devastated Iran’s economy. Unlike many reformist candidates, Pezeshkian has emphasized social justice and inequality over political liberties, appealing to working-class conservatives. His clean reputation in a corrupt system further garnered support, attracting voters weary of conservative infighting. Pezeshkian’s energetic, grassroots campaign proved effective, resonating with those seeking tangible improvements in daily life. Pezeshkian now faces two stark options as Iran’s new president. He might choose to uphold the system, inevitably breaking his promises to the electorate. Alternatively, he could defy the supreme leader’s authority, risking his position to implement his electoral program. Notably, a significant portion of Iranian youth abstained from voting for the moderate politician, despite their fears of a hard-liner like Jalili taking power.
In the intricate fabric of Iranian politics, the president’s powers remain circumscribed by the supreme authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Acknowledging this, newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian cautioned moderates, “We make promises and we fail to fulfil them. This is the biggest problem we have.” This realism highlights the challenges ahead, especially considering Khamenei’s age and health, which could lead to political instability as the race for his successor begins. Without a religious background or lineage, Pezeshkian will never be in the running to replace Khamenei as the Supreme Spiritual Leader. The Revolutionary Guards’ significant influence on foreign policy and economic interests further complicates Pezeshkian’s agenda. Unlike his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, who was deeply entrenched in political circles, Pezeshkian emerged from relative obscurity. However, his strategic alliance with Javad Zarif, the seasoned former foreign minister, was pivotal to his victory. Zarif’s involvement signals a potential shift in Iran’s diplomatic posture, aiming for pragmatic engagement with the West – but it may lead to confrontation with the deep state also. Pezeshkian’s administration faces the arduous task of navigating a complex power structure while addressing pressing socio-economic issues. His pragmatic approach, coupled with Zarif’s expertise, could redefine Iran’s political landscape and international relations, albeit within the constraints of a deeply entrenched system.
With the specter of a full-scale war between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel looming larger, and the potential return of Donald Trump – who withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal – to the White House, the stakes are high. For the regime, his presidency may be a strategic move to reconnect with a disaffected Iranians and seek a modicum of stability in international relations. For the Iranian people, it represents a chance to improve their living standards and reclaim some of the freedoms they have lost. As tensions in the Middle East escalate, Pezeshkian’s leadership could prove critical. With growing pressure on Joe Biden to reconsider his re-election bid, the current US administration has even less capacity for handling Tehran. Masoud Pezeshkian’s unexpected victory in Iran’s presidential election offers a glimmer of hope for both Iranians and the international community. Pezeshkian’s leadership might provide a narrow window for progress. It’s a window that global actors must strive to keep open, despite the numerous obstacles.
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