Belgium (Brussels Morning) Since his return to the White House in January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to revive and expand one of his administration’s hallmark foreign policy achievements: the Abraham Accords.
Originally launched in 2020 to normalise relations between Israel and several Arab states, the framework is now envisioned as a broader U.S.-led geopolitical platform extending beyond the Middle East to the wider Eurasian landscape.
Trump’s stated goal is to persuade more Muslim-majority countries, both in the Arab world and beyond, to recognise Israel and join the Accords. Recent geopolitical developments, such as the weakening of Hezbollah, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the recent Gaza ceasefire, have reshaped regional dynamics and created new opportunities, but also new obstacles, for this ambitious plan.
Under Trump’s renewed foreign policy doctrine, the Abraham Accords seem to be evolving from a regional peace initiative into a strategic framework for aligning U.S. allies across West and Central Asia. Initially focused on Arab-Israeli normalisation, the Accords now aim to reshape the regional balance of power, counter Iranian and Chinese influence, and integrate partners from the broader Eurasian space. Discussions have reportedly included Azerbaijan, the Turkic states of Central Asia, and even non-Muslim countries. The goal is to larger geopolitical structure that supports U.S. strategic interests and economic projects.
The Saudi Factor
The potential inclusion of Saudi Arabia remains the most significant and symbolically powerful step for the Abraham Accords. Prior to the October 7 attacks, backchannel negotiations between Riyadh and Jerusalem had reached an advanced stage, raising expectations for an imminent breakthrough. However, the subsequent Gaza war froze the process, and Israel’s military strikes in Qatar further complicated regional trust.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) responded by invoking its Joint Defence Agreement, declaring that any attack on one member constitutes an attack on all. This move demonstrated rare intra-Gulf solidarity and underscored the limits of U.S. influence when Washington appeared tolerant of Israel’s actions against Qatar, a key American ally.
In response, Saudi Arabia strengthened its strategic ties with Pakistan through a Mutual Defence Agreement, signalling its intent to diversify security partnerships. Nevertheless, U.S. officials maintain that Riyadh remains open to resuming talks on joining the Accords, contingent upon a U.S.–Saudi Military Agreement that would formalise security guarantees, one of the kingdom’s long-standing conditions for recognising Israel.
Should such an agreement materialise, it could revive IMEC and reinforce Washington’s regional influence. Yet, any renewed hostilities in Gaza could once again derail progress.
The Levantine Front
While the Gulf front offers cautious optimism, the Levant presents more complex challenges.
Much speculation has emerged regarding whether Lebanon could eventually join the Abraham Accords. The major obstacle remains Hezbollah, whose significant though diminished military presence continues to shape Lebanese politics. Following its costly confrontation with Israel, Hezbollah is weakened and isolated, particularly after losing direct support from Iran. Still, the group’s refusal to disarm threatens Lebanon’s stability and complicates any path toward normalisation. As a result, while exploratory discussions may continue, full Lebanese participation in the Abraham Accords remains premature and risky.
The fall of the Assad regime and the rise of Ahmed al-Shaara have transformed Syria’s foreign policy outlook. Early 2025 saw direct negotiations between Syrian and Israeli representatives, mediated by third parties, on potential normalisation and border security arrangements.
However, the July 2025 Israeli bombing of the Syrian Defence Ministry and the Presidential Palace complex—amid clashes between Druze militias, Bedouins, and pro-government forces in southern Syria—halted these talks. Damascus now seeks a security arrangement similar to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement following the Yom Kippur War, focusing on de-escalation rather than full normalisation. The continued Israeli military presence in southern Syria remains a critical obstacle, though low-level negotiations continue in pursuit of a modus vivendi.
Trump’s Strategic Leverage
President Donald Trump’s return to office has reaffirmed Washington’s central role as the principal architect and driver of the Abraham Accords. Known for his transactional diplomacy and assertive negotiation style, Trump has demonstrated both the ability and the will to exert pressure on regional leaders to achieve strategic outcomes that align with U.S. interests. By leveraging America’s special relationship with Israel, its network of military bases, and its diplomatic influence across the Arab world, Trump aims to accelerate the expansion of the Accords and consolidate U.S. leadership in the post-Gaza geopolitical landscape.
His administration views the Abraham Accords not only as a peace mechanism but also as a strategic instrument for reaffirming American influence in a region where China and Russia have sought greater footholds. In this context, Washington’s security guarantees, economic incentives, and defence partnerships remain the most powerful tools for persuading hesitant states—especially Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners—to normalise relations with Israel and join a broader U.S.-led regional architecture.
The Eurasian Dimension
The expanded vision for the Accords has opened the door for non-Arab and non-Muslim participants, a notable departure from the initiative’s original scope. Countries such as Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, which already maintain pragmatic ties with Israel, are being discussed as potential new members.
Their inclusion would symbolically broaden the Accords into a Eurasian cooperation framework, intertwining diplomatic, security, and economic goals under U.S. leadership. This transformation reflects Washington’s strategic pivot toward Asia, with the main goal in the long run being the creation of a framework, if not a loose geopolitical coalition, to counterbalance China’s expanding influence.
In conclusion, the renewed Abraham Accords initiative represents a bold yet fragile experiment in regional diplomacy. Despite the success of the initial process in 2020 and recent developments like the Gaza ceasefire, cautious optimism is accompanied by underlying mistrust, security dilemmas, and competing regional agendas. However, Trump’s assertive foreign policy style might change these trends and eventually redefine the regional order.
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