Geneva, Switzerland, 3 September (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – A Strong El Niño is forecast to develop into a very strong event and peak towards the end of 2026, prompting the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to urge countries to prepare for potentially disruptive changes in rainfall and temperature.
The UN weather agency says there is a nearly 100% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through February 2027. Its effects could extend further into next year, although impacts will vary considerably between countries and regions.
Why is El Niño becoming so strong?
El Niño develops when waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than normal. This additional ocean heat affects atmospheric circulation, altering rainfall, storms and temperatures thousands of miles away.
The WMO says exceptionally warm Pacific conditions are now driving the current event towards very strong intensity.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned:
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.”
The organisation has stressed that the strength of an El Niño event does not automatically determine the severity of its effects everywhere. Local geography, seasonal conditions and other climate factors remain important.
What could countries face in the coming months?
A Strong El Niño can raise the risk of drought in some regions while bringing unusually heavy rainfall and flooding to others. Above-normal temperatures are also expected across much of the world’s land areas.
Agriculture could be particularly exposed if rainfall shortages or excessive precipitation affect growing seasons. Water supplies, energy systems, public health and disaster-response services could also come under pressure.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned about the scale of the developing conditions, saying:
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters.”
How can countries prepare before El Niño peaks?
The Strong El Niño is expected to strengthen through the coming months before reaching its peak around the end of 2026.
The WMO is urging governments to use national and regional forecasts to prepare rather than treating severe impacts as inevitable. Early-warning systems, emergency planning and preparations in agriculture, health and water management can reduce risks to communities.
National meteorological agencies will continue updating forecasts as the event develops because El Niño’s effects can differ substantially from one region to another.
