UK (Brussels Morning Newspaper)- A new YouGov poll shows Reform UK leading at 27%, alarming Labour and Conservatives. John Major and Theresa May warn that the Tory shift rightward risks voter alienation. Labour is urged to refocus to become the main “Stop Reform” alternative.
A recent survey has caused shockwaves in the Labour party, and John Major and Theresa May have both made speeches warning about the Conservative party’s present lurch to the right. A few observations on both of these matters are below.
The ‘Stop Reform’ option
Reading too much into any one poll is a false step if you are trying to know what people in the UK really think. But in Westminster, a single poll can tend to set the mood for weeks — sometimes months — even while poll after poll contradicts it.
A particularly good illustration of that was the YouGov voting intention survey that was released in the wake of Rishi Sunak’s very well-received and coordinated budget in March 2021. It had the Conservative Party at 45 per cent and Labour at 32 per cent. That 13-point advantage more or less became Westminster’s perception of “the settled state of public opinion” right up until mid-December, when the Liberal Democrats held the North Shropshire by-election. The Tory majority had been declining for months, but it only finally caught up with the Westminster consensus when Helen Morgan became Liberal Democrat MP.
And now a new YouGov poll places Reform on 27 per cent, Labour and the Conservatives neck-and-neck at 17 per cent, the Greens (16 per cent) and Liberal Democrats (15 per cent) being level-pegged in the margin of error. As reported by the Financial Times also appears to be becoming the new reality as regards Westminster.
I’m a great believer that you have to write down your daftest ideas so that you can learn from them, instead of being able to hide behind hindsight, so in the spirit of which, here is mine: I don’t think for a second that when it comes down to it, the next election will be Reform on 27 per cent and the rest of the chasing pack in the mid-teens. The public is aware of how our system of elections operates, and they will rally behind whatever force can most convincingly offer itself as the “stop Reform” choice. That puts Labour at a massive structural advantage because it is already the largest party, it is already in office, and it is best positioned to do so.
But it is much more important in the way we are governed that several Labour MPs have already told me some version of “things are going terribly. Now we are level with the Greens” or “this group [the government] has taken us to third place and level-pegging with the Greens”. This makes it much more difficult for the government to get its MPs to do anything uncomfortable or left-wing.
Again, in the mood that you ought to put down your most ridiculous interpretations so you can’t escape from them afterwards, I don’t necessarily think that either the Greens or the Liberal Democrats can escape the Labour Party’s grasp before the next election. If Labour gets its act together, it will sweep in that left bracket, and if it doesn’t, it will be such a bed blocker that the Greens on the left won’t be able and the Liberal Democrats in the centre won’t be able to be a “stop Reform” force.
But there is a theoretical path open to the Conservatives, one pursued by John Major in a speech to retired Conservative Party agents. It’s a good speech, so I have quoted his key argument in full, but I have underlined the bits I am going to discuss:
We can count on Labour to fall — they are already doing that. Their goal — to expand the economy — is correct.
But their over-taxing, their restriction, their denial of hope; their hostility to entrepreneurs, their deliberate wish to level down rather than levelling up — will deprive them of growth and ensure stagnation.
I talked — some years ago — of wanting to see a classless society: the current Labour government is the most class-conscious one I have witnessed since the early 1960s. Last week’s by-election outcome — in hospitable terrain — demonstrates how much they are ignored.
Reform UK is now highlighting its flaws. It gained popularity by pointing out grievances and scapegoating minorities. If one member of a minority is a breaker of laws, or violent, or sadistic, Reform calls them all the same. But, naturally, they are not.
More recently — in a bid to be everything to everybody — Reform is now embracing overspending, nationalisation, and unachievable promises that will never — can never — be delivered. If you don’t believe me, just take a look at their record in the local authorities; they now control: they are hopelessly out of their depth.
Other policies are poorly thought out. Reform wants to nationalise half the water industry but fails to see that the reason for privatisation was that the State had no money for investment. They don’t have it now either.
This is amateur populism unleashed. These idiotic promises show them up as unsuitable for power. As Reform becomes increasingly unlikely, it leaves a large void on the Centre-Right of politics where Conservatism can thrive.
Near enough every week, Reform puts another proposal into its locker that will attract 30 per cent of the public but alienate 70 per cent of it. If its rivals are split, then it can succeed. Currently, it is fortunate that the Labour government is so unpopular and so directionless.
But there will be a hunger for a party which can sensibly claim “we’re big enough and have enough supporters that we are your best chance to block Reform”. That is significantly easier to satisfy if you are Labour than anyone else, and it too would be sensible to internalise what John Major is saying and learn from it. The government has been able to enact leftwing policies that have repelled business. While simultaneously being viewed as too right-wing to appeal to voters defecting from Labour to the Greens, a complete disaster.
A Conservative party that can finally be able to say “we’ve changed, we are less extreme than Reform and more right-wing than Labour”, though I believe, the only party that can realistically survive if Labour doesn’t get its act together.
The Greens can win votes and seats, certainly, but not sufficient to have a government. Ditto the Liberal Democrats. My assessment of the mood of the Conservative Party is that it is not remotely ready to hear what John Major has to say without suffering at least one more electoral defeat. But his take on where we are today in British politics is, I believe, pretty accurate.
