Hamas’s incursion into Israel and its massacre of hundreds of civilians came as a surprise to everyone, first and foremost to Hizbullah and to Iran. The last thing on their collective minds was to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into an all-out war with the “Zionist Occupier Entity”.
The attack by Hamas has exposed Israel’s clay feet, most notably its internecine strife and enfeebled army. It has rendered an economically crumbling and blindly vengeful Israel a pariah state.
But Iran’s proxies everywhere suffered major, incapacitating blows as well, depriving Iran of its first line of defense against a hostile West.
Denuded of its long arms (“allies”), Iran is now forced to resort to nuclear weapons. It is weeks away from breakout as far as enriched uranium and plutonium go. It is in the throes of putting together a nuclear strategy and a corresponding doctrine to supersede or suspend the anti-nuclear fatwa by Khamenei.
Iran is still at least a year or two away from the ability to mount warheads of fissile material on missiles and deliver them to their targets unerringly. But it is only a question of time.
Iran is the next North Korea. Nuclear weapons are meant to be brandished, not used. It is the old MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) doctrine.
But such deterrence requires the wherewithal of a second strike. Only Russia, China, and North Korea can groom Iran and bring it to this stage. Nuclear technology transfers between these countries are already taking place, swapped against Iranian-manufactured missiles and drones.
Once Iran is nuclear, the conflict between Shia Islam and the Sunni brand (aided and abetted by Israel) will erupt in full force.
As Iran attempts to consolidate a Shia bloc in a ring of fire around itself, Sunni rivals are liable to develop nuclear weapons of their own to counter this metastasis. Iran’s proxies, resuscitated and better equipped than ever will be active participants in this geopolitical Great Game.
Israel can play a pivotal role in this scramble for hegemony if it only were to give up on its own imperial dreams. Israel’s intelligence services are still superior in the region and so is its air force. Offshore drilling for oil, desalinated water, and hi-tech are Israeli fortes much in demand among its neighbours. It is a natural ally to countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
Israel is also still a US asset despite the increasing costs associated with this alliance as far as America is concerned. Iran represents a major regional and even global threat to the West, now that it is a member of the military-economic axis which comprises Russia and China. Barring a direct US intervention, only Israel can contain Iran, even a nuclear one.
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