Israeli advocates of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza as part of a hostage deal with Hamas, proffer the following arguments in favor of an agreement – all of them false:
FALSE ARGUMENT NUMBER 1
The return of the remaining hostages – many of them as corpses – will restore trust and the shattered covenant between the citizens of Israel and its government and military.
THE TRUTH
Nothing will ever revive the citizenry’s confidence in the bloated, self-enriching, glorified militia which the IDF has become over the past few decades. The Air Force may be the sole exception. Israel’s armed forces and intelligence community are capable of spectacular one-offs and of the slaughter of civilians – but they are inferior and not up to the systemic military threats the State of Israel is currently faced with on all fronts.
The army and intelligence services have committed too many errors in the runup to October 7. Immersed in hubris and hedonism, craven delusions and misconceptions, exorbitant pay and pensions, and sheer stupidity among the largely political appointments, the IDF, Mossad, Shin Bet and the entire alphabet soup are now corrupted and dilapidated to the point of all-pervasive dysfunction. They are useless.
Faced with an existential threat akin to the annihilation in the Holocaust, many Israelis now are looking for a way out of their failed state. Those who can, emigrate. Those who cannot – try to do so all the same.
Furthermore: the internecine fault lines within the counterfactual fiction known as “Israeli society” have irrevocably erupted. The genie cannot be put back into the consensus and status quo bottles. It is a question of time before Israel disintegrates into a terminal civil war.
FALSE ARGUMENT NUMBER 2
A hostage-cum-ceasefire deal with Hamas is likely to prevent a regional war with Iran and its proxies.
THE TRUTH
Both Hizbullah and Iran are now compelled to settle open accounts with Israel, regardless of any developments in Gaza. A regional war is inevitable, though it might be low-intensity and asymmetrical. Once a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza, Hizbullah and Iran will attack an economically enfeebled and bleeding Israel and initiate the second phase of their attempt to eradicate the Jewish State.
FALSE ARGUMENT NUMBER 3
Hamas is effectively defeated. No need to proceed with the war. Israel’s aims have been accomplished.
THE TRUTH
Hamas have won this war decisively, in every possible dimension. Even militarily, Hamas is far from diminished. Israel has killed, by its own estimate, 17,000 Hamas terrorists and their commanders. These are easily replaced in a population even more hateful and embittered by Israel’s indiscriminate counterattack.
Iran is ready to replenish Hamas munitions and only one third of the tunnels within Gaza and between Gaza and Egypt have been destroyed (though many of these can be re-excavated within months). It would take Hamas no longer than a year to regain its posture prior to October 7. Hamas is the future ruler of the Palestinians, its hero credentials burnished.
FALSE ARGUMENT NUMBER 4
Should Hamas violate the ceasefire agreement by moving armed fighters to the northern Gaza Strip or by smuggling materiel from Egypt under the Philadelphi corridor, Israel could easily resume military operations to counter these emerging threats.
THE TRUTH
No one – especially not the USA – will allow Israel to restart the war in Gaza. This ostensible option is utterly delusional. Moreover: Israel will be preoccupied with international pressures (including arrest warrants against its leaders by the ICC) and with the war against Iran and Hizbullah.
Why do I mince words? Why do I not call these “false arguments” lies?
Because many Israelis fervently believe in them. In psychology we call it a fantasy defense against a cognitive dissonance and an unbearable reality. It is a psychopathology which has been typical of both sides to this protracted conflict. The refusal to inhabit reality has led everyone in this benighted region into a surreal nightmare from which there is no awakening.
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