The comprehensive Plan of Action is one of the significant issues in international politics from the moment it was signed in 2015. It was reached between Iran, and several other countries including the US, and, in turn, placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on Iran.Â
In 2018 the United States decided to quit the deal under the presidency of Donald Trump which considerably destabilized the situation. The big question now is: Has the US re-entered the Iran deal? Peterson has explained this question as relevant in the prognosis of the further development of international relations, the problems of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and the situation in the Middle East.Â
In this article, I will discuss several questions: Whether the US has come back to the deal, What it means, and What it might mean for geopolitics going forward.
What is the Iran Deal?
Before I proceed to explain the importance of whether the US has rejoined the Iran deal or not, one needs to know what the Iran deal is all about. The JCPOA was signed in July 2015 between Iran and the world’s six leading powers namely the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China. They were negotiating to curb the Iranian nuclear program so that Iran does not construct nuclear weapons and in return provides access to the international market. The main provisions of the pact were Iran’s limits on uranium enrichment, the redesign of a reactor, and Iran’s halving enriched uranium stockpile.
The deal was meant to bar Iran from getting nuclear weapons on one part and the other and allow Iran to continue with nuclear power production for civilian use. It was applauded as a diplomatic success, but it also received negative responses from different countries, mainly those that perceived Iran as not compliant with the provisions of the agreement.
Why Did the US Leave the Iran Deal?
However, in May 2018, Trump served America’s fresh notification of withdrawal from this deal making a drastic turning point for the Iran deal. Of course, Trump tried to describe the deal as not perfect because it failed to put constraints on Iran’s missile program or its interference in other countries’ affairs. He also disparaged the “sunset clauses,” which are some of the limitations placed on Tehran’s nuclear program that would be lifted after a decade and a half.
Due to withdrawal, it resulted in the reinforcement of strict economic sanctions on Iran that affected their economy a lot. The move also increased the aggression between the US and Iran resulting in military conflicts and an increase in the area.
The US Approach Under Biden
US President Joe Biden had one of the major objectives regarding international relations when he took office in 2021, to reintegrate the US into the Iran nuclear deal. Biden also stood for the JCPOA and opposed the war as a means of leaving Iran without nuclear weapons.
Talks to resuscitate the deal were after Biden’s inauguration. Negotiations were conducted between the US, Iran, and the three other countries still in the deal. However such discussions encountered some difficulties and challenges. Both the US and Iran entered the talks with different preconditions and the discussions were further marked by controversies like the matter of Iran’s missiles, its operations in the region, and the question whether the US sanctions on Iran would be lifted or not.
Currently up to 2024, the US has not addressed the Iran deal. Despite this, there have been several interactions and willingness on the part of both parties to come back to the agreement; however, there have been several hurdles stopping the re-entry.
First of all, the current US administration is generally in favor of the deal but it is not ready to make compromises without the same actions from the other side of the negotiation with Iran. This unravels in the Iranian government’s commitment to enhanced oversight of its nuclear plans and a commitment to fully implementing the provisions of the JCPOA. The US has also called on Iran to stop its activities in the region such as supporting rebels in the Middle East.
Iran has posited that the US must first remove the sanctions applied after the withdrawal in 2018. Iran also wants to have an assurance of no pullout in the future which was done by the Trump administration. There seems to have been an intricate balancing of power politics where both sides avoided increasing the scale of conflict while at the same time both parties pursued their ends.
The Role of European Allies
The matter is that the European countries that took the initial decision became the initial members of the negotiating process, including the UK, France, and Germany. These countries have vociferously backed this deal and have been trying to act as the go-betweens between the US and Iran. The European Union, especially, has been trying to mediate and ensure that both parties sit for a round of negotiation to leave conflict, and more importantly to ensure that Iran’s nuclear activities are not military-related.
Europe has been a contested terrain due to an imbalance with the US. The European powers want to renew the agreement, but to do so they are under pressure on the United States and Iran to take a harder line on many subjects, including human rights and Iran’s missile program.
The Consequences of Returning to the Iran Deal
The Iranian deal, if joined by the United States, has the potential to create shockwaves across the international system and security at large. First of all, it would contribute to decreasing tensions in the Middle East as regards Iran’s nuclear intentions. It will also provide a chance to avoid a nuclear race in the region as it will restrict Iran from developing nuclear weapons if the JCPOA is signed again.
Besides, a re-entry might be potentially accompanied by new talks on other subjects that have long been the focus of concern, including Iran’s missile launching and its interference in conflicts in the Middle East. However, the proponents of the JCPOA criticize the agreement for not addressing many of these issues adequately and for requiring a separate supplement to achieve this end.
For the US, to rejoin the deal, is also a signal that the US preferred way of engaging the world is with diplomacy not with bombs. It could help repair damaged credentials with the major players that were lost in the ’90s and signal a commitment to multilateralism.
What is Next in the US and Iran?
However, there are chances that once again the United States and Iran will come back to the negotiation table and sign a new deal. San Adolfornos is still functioning at the diplomatic level, and both parties are eager to negotiate. But the pace of development has been slow and the status of this element remains in the air.
This argument depends on the show of volatility that the two parties will be willing to show by trying to understand each other. It could very well be that the US will rejoin the deal in the future but only if in return, specific demands are met related to Iran’s nuclear endeavors and hegemonic actions in the Middle East.
Has the US Re-entered the Iran Deal?
Currently, up to this point, the United States has not come back to engage in the Iran nuclear deal formally. Thus, the many barriers that still exist: Despite immense diplomacy, the negotiation processes between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and other countries. They both possess demands that must be met before signing an agreement. Nevertheless, the fate of the Iran deal is still unknown, however, the continuous negotiations make it quite clear that a return to the deal is not out of the question.
Thus, no matter what the result of the decision to re-enter the Iran deal by the United States, it would have implications both for the region and for international insecurity. It becomes important for the US and Iran to look for ways to cooperate to make further negotiations result in a stable solution to both nuclear and other issues relating to the region. The world still waits and sees what will happen next one to the other.
