Belgium (Brussels Morning Newspaper), New polling-backed study, published ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, finds that just 10% of Europeans, on average, believe Ukraine will triumph in the conflict.
The prevailing view, in all twelve surveyed member states, is that a ‘compromise settlement’ will end the war.
The study was conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR),
The shift of opinion, according to the study’s authors, is driven by the stalled counteroffensive of the Ukrainian military, growing concerns about a US policy shift, and what the possible re-election of Donald Trump could mean for the war effort.
Should Trump win the US presidency, a plurality of respondents believe Europe should either maintain or ‘increase’ its level of support for Kyiv.
The study’s co-authors, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, argue that, in order to maintain public support for Ukraine, EU leaders should put forward a narrative that is “rooted in reality”, and establishes a distinction between a “negotiated peace” and a “peace on Russia’s terms”. The critical debate will be to define what peace means.
There is growing pessimism in Europe about the Russia-Ukraine war, and fears that a Donald Trump win at this year’s US presidential elections will make a Ukrainian victory “less likely”, according to the multi-country survey report.
The landscape will make the quest to define peace “a critical battleground”, not only in the upcoming European elections, but for the conflict itself.
In order to continuing making a persuasive case to support Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change their tenor so as not to come across as unrealistic to a sceptical public, it adds.
