On September 16, the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent. That kind of move usually pulls capital out of emerging markets. Four days later, China’s benchmark lending rates stayed unchanged for 16 months running: 3 percent for the one-year loan prime rate and 3.5 percent for the five-year rate. On September 21, the governor of the People’s Bank of China met 15 global financial institutions to discuss letting more foreign money in, not less.
That sequence is the backdrop to the financial sector plan for 2026-2030, which Beijing released on September 10. The office of the Central Financial Commission drafted it with the financial regulators. By 2030 it aims to establish the overall framework of a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics. By 2035 it aims to “largely establish a highly adaptive, competitive, and inclusive” system. Its six tasks cover macro-regulation, supervision, risk prevention, service to the real economy, the sector’s own development and high-standard financial opening-up.
The plan does not set supervision against openness. Its promise of “forceful, orderly and effective steps” against risks in local small and medium-sized lenders is what makes wider foreign access safe to offer. A foreign pension fund will commit capital only to a market where weak institutions are dealt with before they fail. The plan puts that cleanup and the opening on the same timetable.
The economy gives Beijing room to proceed in that order. GDP grew 4.7 percent year on year in the first half, to 69.57 trillion yuan, inside the 4.5-5 percent target. Value added in high-tech manufacturing rose 13.3 percent, 7.9 points faster than industry as a whole. Consumers have been slower. August retail sales missed forecasts. The central bank’s answer has been a moderately loose stance without a scramble for rate cuts, with credit directed toward technology, green, inclusive, pension and digital finance. In a year when the Fed is tightening, a stable domestic rate keeps borrowing costs predictable for firms and avoids fuelling asset bubbles.
At the symposium, Pan Gongsheng told representatives of Bank of America, HSBC, First Abu Dhabi Bank and others that China would “steadily expand the two-way opening-up of financial markets, optimize cross-border payment services and further facilitate the international use of the renminbi.” He called the economy “generally stable and improving.” The room also included Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, DBS and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The foreign participants said the reforms had achieved positive progress, and they asked for continued policy fine-tuning and closer communication with the market. Those are the requests of investors who plan to stay.
Their money is already moving. On September 10, Deputy Governor Lu Lei said overseas holdings of onshore yuan assets had topped 11 trillion yuan, about $1.6 trillion. Cross-border yuan receipts and payments passed 50 trillion yuan in the first seven months. In the second quarter, overseas institutions bought a record 941 billion yuan of onshore equities, and for the first time since late 2025 their stock purchases exceeded their bond purchases. The onshore yuan broke 6.70 per dollar in July for the first time in four years.
The capital market is where the plan asks the most. China’s capital market turns 40 in 2030, and by then the plan wants marked improvements in its strength and international competitiveness. It promises more inclusive rules for share issuance, listings and mergers, so that A-shares become the preferred listing venue for China’s strongest companies. Domestic long-term money has already moved. Since January, social security, annuity and insurance funds have bought more than 600 billion yuan of A-shares, and their holdings are up 12.5 percent from the end of 2025. When patient capital sets the floor, stock prices follow profits more closely.
What do partners get from this? For a central bank in Asia or the Gulf that is weighing reserve diversification, or an exporter deciding which currency to invoice in, the key question is whether the issuer’s behavior can be forecast. Beijing has published a route map to 2030 and 2035. It has held its policy rate for 16 months while Washington raised its own, and it has asked foreign banks what should change. For trade settlement and hedging, predictability is what the renminbi now offers.
