“Al-Jolani’s rise and rebranding efforts has a critical challenge to Kurdish autonomy in Syria, as his Islamist ideology and alliances fundamentally clash with the secular, democratic aspirations of Rojava, raising existential stakes for the region’s progressive governance experiment.”
The complexities of the Syrian civil war have birthed unlikely alliances, rivalries, and shifting power dynamics that continue to reshape the region. Among the most prominent figures in this unfolding drama is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Once infamous as the head of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Al-Jolani has rebranded himself as a pragmatic actor open to political cooperation. However, for the Kurdish people, who have carved out a remarkable experiment in self-governance amidst the chaos, his rise poses significant questions. Is Al-Jolani’s emergence a threat to Kurdish autonomy, or does it present a unique opportunity for collaboration in a fractured Syria?
HTS, under Al-Jolani’s leadership, has sought to portray itself as a more moderate force, distancing itself from its extremist origins. Despite these claims, the group’s track record of enforcing strict Sharia law, marginalizing minorities, and engaging in sectarian violence remains a cause for alarm. This ideological chasm makes any assurances from Al-Jolani regarding Kurdish inclusion highly suspect. His efforts to distance HTS from international terrorism designations and align with Turkish interests have bolstered his political relevance. Yet, skepticism abounds regarding the sincerity of these overtures.
When I spoke to Zerrin Bataray, Lawyer, elected member of the Regional Council of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Region within the political group “Les Écologistes” (The Green Party) in France, she expressed concerns about Al-Jolani’s promises to protect Kurds, particularly in light of his close ties with Turkey. “But who can believe such lofty words when they are immediately contradicted by far more threatening positions?” she stated.
“The Kurds are not a bargaining chip. They are not merely a pawn in a global chess game. If Western powers, particularly the United States and its allies, continue to support the Kurds, al-Joulani will never be a direct threat to their autonomy. But if that support were to falter, the Kurds would once again be abandoned to a tragic fate. And this time, it would be a betrayal that history will not forgive”. She added.
Turkey’s role in supporting HTS complicates the equation. Ankara has long viewed Kurdish autonomy as a threat to its territorial integrity, given its conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). By backing groups like HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA), Turkey seeks to suppress Kurdish aspirations projecting influence in northern Syria. Barzani’s recent actions, including his perceived alignment with Turkish interests, have also raised eyebrows.
As a key Kurdish leader in Iraqi Kurdistan, Barzani wields significant influence, but his ties to Erdogan and apparent silence on critical issues facing Rojava suggest a prioritization of political expediency over Kurdish unity. Although it is uncertain whether Barzani has explicitly endorsed Al-Jolani, yet any perceived alignment risks undermining the democratic structures in Rojava and fracturing Kurdish solidarity.
The failure of Western powers to hold Turkey accountable for its actions in Rojava, particularly in terms of human rights violations, is also a major point of contention. The ongoing neglect of Kurdish communities and the continued geopolitical manipulation of the situation is seen as a betrayal of Kurdish efforts to resist extremism and maintain stability.
“But let’s be serious. When we consider al-Joulani’s ties with Turkey, how can we possibly trust him? Turkey is threatening to invade Rojava at any moment. And what does al-Joulani say about it? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Erdogan keeps reiterating that “we allowed the Kurds to create autonomy in Iraq; we shouldn’t have, and we cannot let that happen again.” Yet the so-called defender of minorities, al-Joulani, remains silent. Curious, isn’t it?” Ms. Zerrin Bataray stated in another interview.
For Rojava, the stakes are existential. The autonomous region has achieved remarkable progress in establishing a governance model rooted in pluralism and inclusivity. However, this progress remains fragile, threatened by external aggression and internal divisions. Engaging with Al-Jolani or HTS can cause significant risks, as it could undermine Rojava’s democratic ideals by cooperating with a group opposed to secular governance. Recognizing HTS as a political actor may legitimize extremist models, setting a dangerous precedent. Additionally, any engagement could erode international support, alienating allies who consider HTS a terrorist organization.
Moreover, the Kurdish population in regions like Afrin has faced systematic ethnic cleansing by pro-Turkish militias. The inability of international organizations to effectively operate in these areas, and the limited aid reaching displaced populations, exacerbates the suffering of Kurdish communities. In contrast, Rojava’s inclusive political model provides some refuge for displaced populations, although it also faces challenges in securing international support.
In the wake of the Syrian rebel offensive that ousted former president Bashar al-Assad, the UN reports that approximately 1.1 million people have been displaced, with women and children comprising the majority of those affected. The conflict has led to intense factional fighting, primarily around towns like Manbij and Deir Ezzour, as Kurdish and Arab units under the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Turkish-backed rebel groups seeking to secure territory.
Amidst this turmoil, over 100,000 displaced individuals have sought refuge in Kurdish-controlled areas, exacerbating tensions as Kurdish forces battle both Turkish-backed rebels and the Islamic State (IS) in various regions. The SDF, with support from around 900 US troops, is trying to curb the resurgence of IS, but growing Turkish military attacks complicate their efforts. Despite a ceasefire in Manbij, fighting persists, as Turkish forces target Kurdish convoys, and clashes continue around vital infrastructure, such as the Tishreen dam.
On the other hand, on December 22, 2024, Al Jolani has declared that no armed groups or factions, including US-backed PKK/SDF, will be permitted to operate in Syria. “Well we actually saw that during the revolution actually being in groups wasn’t very helpful”, He announced. The SDF now faces a critical choice: disarm and dissolve, or negotiate with HTS to integrate into a unified Syrian national army.
Al-Jolani has declared that no armed groups or factions, including the US-backed PKK/SDF, will be permitted to operate in Syria. The SDF now faces a critical choice: disarm and dissolve, or negotiate with HTS to integrate into a unified Syrian national army. pic.twitter.com/LtDUuoD8zE
— 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐀𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢 (@MArizanti) December 22, 2024
In order to clarify the catastrophic circumstances for displaced Kurds, Mr. Ahmed Mustafa, a senior analyst on refugee matters indicated that “These groups prevent displaced Kurds from returning to their homes, particularly in Afrin, where the Kurdish population has dropped from 85% to 10% since the Turkish invasion in 2018”. Mustafa further stressed: “Rojava provides refuge and a democratic model but areas under HTS’s influence remain unsafe for displaced populations”.
Rights groups have also raised alarms over the worsening humanitarian crisis with overcrowded camps, damaged infrastructure, and widespread violence by Turkish-backed forces. As a result, civilians are bearing the brunt of the conflict. The interim Syrian government has pledged to uphold the rule of law, vowing to hold accountable those responsible for crimes against civilians during the ongoing transition period.
Human right experts also shared skepticism about Al-Jolani’s assurances. It was pointed out that despite Al-Jolani’s public pledges to safeguard minorities, his past, including crackdowns on dissent and his connections with Turkish-backed forces, makes his promises questionable. The facts show once more that these pledges are not kept, leaving Kurds and other minorities open to serious and persistent breaches. These atrocities have also been reported by the United Nations.
The persistent human rights abuses against Kurdish communities in Turkish-controlled areas, including as forced relocation, arbitrary detentions, torture, and sexual violence, are documented in a number of damning reports. On December 16, 2024, Commissioner Hanny Megally from UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria reiterated how serious the issue was by saying: “Syrians deserve justice after near 14 years of brutal war, where almost every crime listed in the Rome Statute has been committed”.
Moreover, as al-Sharaa attempts to present himself as a leader committed to rebuilding Syria and distancing HTS from its extremist past, the burning of a Christmas tree on December 24, 2024, casts a shadow over his claims of tolerance and minority protection. The act, which targeted an important cultural symbol for Christians in Syria, undermines his assurances that HTS respects the rights of religious minorities in areas under its control. It raises doubts about the true intentions of his leadership, especially when juxtaposed with his promises of a more inclusive future for Syria.
If the “rebels” are done burning Christmas trees in the “free” Syria.. I think it’s time to do something about the daily Israeli annexation of Syrian lands pic.twitter.com/zxDkm2Lts8
— Hadi (@HadiNasrallah) December 23, 2024
In addition, al-Sharaa’s comments on women’s education and the future of Syria’s legal system, though presented as progress, must be viewed through the lens of ongoing regional and sectarian tensions. His claims of more than 60% female university enrollment in Idlib are commendable, but they cannot obscure the more pressing issues of security, governance, and the protection of basic rights.
When I approached Jino Victoria Doabi, a Political Scientist, IR Analyst, she stated. “I would strongly caution the international community against lending credibility to HTS or Al-Jolani. Any such recognition risks undermining the secular, democratic aspirations of marginalized communities in Syria and emboldening governance models incompatible with fundamental human rights and inclusivity”, she elaborated.
As Syria moves forward, the actions of groups like HTS should be scrutinized. Al-Sharaa’s promises to build a more democratic and inclusive society must be held against the reality of the ongoing violence and sectarian tensions. The international community must remain vigilant, recognizing that the rhetoric may have softened, the actions on the ground tell a much different story about the future of Syria under rebel control. Rojava’s democratic principles must be upheld, with the preservation of its progressive objectives taking precedence above any immediate strategic advantages.
In the end, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s rise as a key figure in Syria’s post-Assad scenario presents only threats for Kurdish autonomy in the region. The potential for internal conflicts over territory and ideological differences could hinder Kurdish aspirations for greater autonomy. For the international community, this is a critical moment to support the Kurdish people’s aspirations for democracy. Recognizing the unique experiment in governance unfolding in Rojava, and ensuring its protection against threats posed by Islamist groups like HTS, can serve as a beacon of hope for a region desperately in need of inclusive and progressive solutions. The Kurdish struggle for autonomy is not just a fight for survival; it is a fight for a vision of governance that holds the potential to inspire change across the Middle East.
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