Belarus (Brussels Morning Newspaper), Jihad military insurgency was present in Africa from the beginning of the 18th century and was manifesting itself in waves. Fula jihads were the first wave of Islamist insurgency in Africa, which formed their state at the end of the 18th -beginning of the 19th century, however, the end of the Fula jihad state’s existence was made by European colonizers.
The second wave started with the beginning of Arab Spring in 2011 when the majority of North African states relived a series of pro-democracy uprisings, which resulted in several regime changes. Even though the protests had a liberal character, the uprising ended with the beginning of a period of instability and oppression. Even those countries, that relived the change of the regime, such as Egypt and Tunisia, were fallen from the process of democratization and went on the road of authoritarianism.
At the same time, the Movement of Oneness and Jihad in West Africa started to spread in the countries debilitated by the Arab Spring uprising. An Islamist organization that divided from the Sunni Jihadist terrorist organization started to “inaugurate jihad in West Africa”. Later MOJWA allied with another terrorist organisation from Mali known as National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad. Consequently, with the loss of legitimacy of police forces Central Mali has fallen into the arms of radical Islamists and other violent gangs. The Bamako peace agreement of 2015 failed to prevent the escalation of the internal conflict. The number of Jihadist organizations started to rise and developed in the nearing Burkina Faso and Niger.
At present, Mali contains the biggest amount of Islamist organizations on its territory, including those linked to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) Ansaroul Islam, Movement of Unity and Jihad in West Africa, and Islamic State in the Western Sahara (part of ISIS). The state relived a coup d’etat in the year 2020 with the arrest of the former Malian president and Prime Minister by the military led by Colonel Ismael WaguĂ©. The military representatives created a National Commission for the Salvation of People. After the promise of the new government to make a peaceful civilian transition of power, the tensions started to rise causing another coup d’Ă©tat in 2021. Commander Assimi GoĂŻta was named an interim president.
Niger experienced a series of terrorist attacks recently in the year 2021 when 100 people were killed in Tchombangou and Zaroumdareye. The same year unsuccessful coup d´etat attempt was made accompanied by terrorists’ violence ended with the re-election of President Mohamed Bazoum. However, peace didn’t last for a long time and Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown by the military.
Ali Lamine Zeine, former Minister of Finance was appointed on the post of Prime Minister by the junta representatives. President Bazoum was immediately detained by the military forces due to his refusal to resign from the presidential chair causing a political and governmental crisis in Niger. His family was under the arrest of the military. ECOWAS representatives were trying to negotiate with the junta under the fear of intervention; however, it didn’t bring the expected results. One-week deadline was given to the military by the ECOWAS, which met an agreement between Burkina Faso-Mali to send troops to help Niger.
The involvement of France and the United States in the conflict deteriorated into the creation by the junta of the “Volunteers for the Defence of Niger” militant formation in case of ECOWAS attack. African Union suspended Niger’s membership in the organization. Additionally, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso joined the Alliance of the Sahel States to support each other against the “rebellion or external aggression”. Several sanctions were imposed on Niger by the EU, US, France and ECOWAS. In response, three allied states withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States. The conflict has still not been resolved.
A history of crimes committed by the jihadists on the civil population is known to Burkina Faso as well. The state has been fighting with a terrorist from the year 2015 when the first insurgency of the jihadist movement occurred. In the year 2021 around 170 people were brutally murdered by unknown representatives of Islamist groups. Several militia groups that were fighting against the jihadist violence were not able to restore the peace in the country. Therefore, the state falls into two coup d’etats in January and September of 2022. The new military government started a fight with terrorism retaking around 40% of the state’s territory from the control of Islamist formations. However, during the combat with jihadists, the special formation of the Burkina Faso Armed forces was one of the parts that committed a crime against the civilian population of Burkina Faso- Karma massacre. Around 150 innocent people were killed.
Not a long time ago, military governments in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have pledged to jointly battle jihadist groups. As the majority of terrorist organizations in these countries are directly connected with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, three allied neighbors decided to unite their military potential and destroy terrorist links together.
Jihadist attacks were one of the reasons in all three cases of regime changes and now it’s one of the main goals of states’ cooperation. French troops were helping to beat jihadists back, but following the coups, the rebels requested that the French remove their military presence from countries in West Africa. French operation in the Sahel region was called “Operation Barkhane”. Emmanuel Macron named the reason for the withdrawal of French forces from the region as “France cannot substitute for political stability, for the choice of sovereign states”.
Several years ago, relations between West African countries and France were completely different. In 2013 Mali even called France for help, when two terrorist groups were marching to the capital Bamako. As former France colonies, the three states had tight relations with France in the questions of defense, economy, and trade. Now, they abandoned ties with France and started to make closer cooperation with Russia. As a result, one of the Russian private military groups, known as “Wagner”, is giving a helping hand to the West African countries.
Despite the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, military formation is still active in Africa and continues to spread its influence on the continent. At present, the “Wagner” group has great authority in the Sub-Saharan region. From 2021 its formations were deployed in Mali to combat French influence in the region. In Burkina Faso “Wagner” seized control over natural resources during the 2018 crisis, when militia launched a series of attacks on key state’s locations. In Niger, no evidence of the Wagner group has been noticed despite the United States claims.
The situation in the region might escalate if the joint combat is realized as it was in Somalia, for instance. Burkina Faso is already a leading country in the Global Terrorism Index Ranking. Somalia is coming in the 7th place, Mali is 3rd and Niger is 10th. The future of West African countries is unknown. States are under military dictatorships and are even isolating themselves in the African and international arena. The Fragility State Index shows that they are in the alert zone having from 94 to 99 points out of 120. If the situation does not change for the better, huge migration flows, massacres, and skyrocketing death toll may follow.Â
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