In this analytical paper, I present a comprehensive study of Afghanistan’s strategic challenges within the framework of the emerging intelligence and diplomatic coordination among Russia, China, and Pakistan. The discussion particularly explores how economic crises, humanitarian emergencies, and geopolitical rivalries have transformed Afghanistan into the epicenter of informational and intelligence competition.
Accordingly, it evaluates the potential reemergence of al-Qaeda and other militant networks, the exploitation of economic leverage, and the implications of joint tactical initiatives. Alongside the problem analysis, the paper also offers practical recommendations and a concise assessment of possible future scenarios.
Given its geographic location, Afghanistan has always held a sensitive and strategic position for major regional and global powers. The presence of armed groups, economic collapse, and the worsening humanitarian situation have long made the country a favorable ground for intelligence and diplomatic maneuvering.
The current “triangle” among Russia, China, and Pakistan appears to be expanding; if it continues to strengthen, it may significantly influence Afghanistan’s stability, the overall state of human security, and the broader outcomes of global counterterrorism efforts.
In recent months, diplomatic and intelligence engagement regarding Afghanistan among the region’s key players Russia, China, and Pakistan has notably intensified. Reports of meetings between Pakistan’s special envoy, Mohammad Sadiq, and senior representatives from China and Russia indicate that Afghanistan’s issue is no longer merely an internal affair but a strategic arena for regional ambitions and great-power rivalry. Afghanistan is now situated within a new triangular policy of influence driven by these three strategic actors.
This triangle seems to be forming as an urgent, coordinated, and purpose-driven initiative, possibly as a counterbalance to NATO’s presence and influence. Such an alignment could alter the region’s security equilibrium, generate new shocks for European and NATO allies through humanitarian crises and migration pressures, and create serious challenges to the enforcement of international law and human rights norms.
Concrete evidence of this shifting dynamic can be observed in Moscow’s official diplomatic contacts and Russia’s decision to formally recognize the Taliban, signaling the evolution of broader military and intelligence games in the region.
After more than four decades of war, Afghanistan is now entering a phase that not only endangers the lives of its citizens but also positions the country at the heart of strategic intelligence contests among global powers. The deepening poverty, violations of women’s and girls’ rights, the destruction of youth prospects, and the forced displacement of refugees all signify that Afghanistan is heading toward a severe humanitarian catastrophe. This is not merely an Afghan crisis—it constitutes a grave threat to international peace and stability.
A Brief, Tactical Overview of the Political and Intelligence Background of the Meetings Objectives and Instruments
Based on available evidence, some of the meetings appear to have taken place covertly and outside the formal framework of the Moscow Format. Their stated objective was to build a common regional posture, while maintaining a high level of political legitimacy for the Taliban regime and forging a Russia–China–Pakistan trilateral. The core rationale behind these efforts is that such a trilateral would constitute a major step toward reshaping the region’s political map. These policies may also serve, in line with each actor’s national interests, as practical tactics to reduce U.S. and NATO influence.
The Joint Strategy, Objectives, and Tools of Russia, China, and Pakistan
Russia: Moscow has expanded formal and operational ties with the Taliban to broaden its influence, reduce Western and NATO presence, and gain precedence in regional negotiations. For Russia, Afghanistan represents an arena for strategic maneuvers as well as military and intelligence opportunities.
China: Beijing prioritizes security assurances and internal stability in Afghanistan to safeguard economic interests and large-scale projects (mining, energy, transit). Simultaneously, China values tactical engagement with Kabul to advance its security objectives, including the prevention of jihadi-terrorist activities.
Pakistan: Islamabad seeks to preserve an influential role in shaping the Taliban’s domestic and foreign policies in order to maintain strategic depth and curb Indian influence. This yields direct security and geopolitical advantages for Pakistan and helps entrench its long-term regional role.
Complex Humanitarian Conditions and the Challenges of Displacement Waves
Since the Taliban’s return to power, reports of rights violations against women and girls, journalists, civil society activists, and former government officials have increased. At the same time, mass returns and forced repatriations of Afghan refugees from Iran and Pakistan numbering in the millions by 2025 according to recent international reports — are exerting severe pressure on Afghanistan’s social and economic structures. The surge in returns constitutes a primary threat to what is already a broad humanitarian emergency.
Post-2021 violations against women, journalists, civil society actors, and former officials have increased substantially; this trend directly exacerbates the humanitarian crisis, reduces the effectiveness of international assistance, and weakens the Afghan government’s legitimacy. Multiple human-rights organizations and UN expert reports have corroborated these assessments. The scale of returns from Iran and Pakistan in 2025 is particularly significant amounting to millions of people, many of them forcibly expelled or otherwise compelled to return. This influx places acute strain on the domestic economy, public services, and social fabric, and risks generating new waves of instability.
Intelligence and Covert Recruitment Operations
Recent reports indicate that former Afghan security personnel and combatants have been recruited and mobilized by foreign actors, notably with alleged Russian involvement that may be connected to the conflict in Ukraine. Such activity raises complex questions for international security and legal accountability. Local reports and sources document instances of targeted killings, kidnappings, and unlawful detention of former security and military officials; however, impartial national and international investigations are required to substantiate and quantify these claims.
To enable effective judicial action, full access for international observers and secure preservation of evidence are essential so that major allegations can be examined in a court of law.
Foundations of State Responsibility
Under international law, states have the responsibility to ensure their territory is not used for activities that harm other states. If the Taliban’s governing authorities permit or support the activities of al-Qaeda or other networks, this may constitute a breach of state responsibility and contravene both the UN Charter and the International Law Commission’s principles on state responsibility.
Recommendation for Action by the ICC
The ICC’s arrest applications and rulings in Dubai in 2025 demonstrate that international justice intends to continue pursuing accountability for serious human-rights violations. These developments indicate that the international legal system may take concrete steps in response to such violations.
Respect for Refugee Rights and International Humanitarian Law
Forced returns (“forced re-returns”) are inconsistent with international human-rights and asylum law. Relevant international agencies — notably UNHCR and IOM — must be granted full access and monitoring capacity. In the event of forced expulsions, robust diplomatic measures are required.
Intelligence analysis: Potential threats for Europe, NATO and the international community triangle reflections and risks
If triangular coordination (among hostile external actors, local networks, and permissive authorities) deepens, the following international consequences may arise:
Risk of reactivation of terrorist and jihadi networks, with potential spillover across regional borders that could affect European security.
Increase in intelligence and cyber operations and intensified attempts to destabilize political environments through disinformation.
New waves of migration to Europe, contributing to political polarization and social pressure.
It is essential that European and NATO governments do not treat these developments solely as humanitarian problems, but analyze and address them within a strategic framework of regional and international security.
Recruitment networks
If states such as Russia or other similar actors begin recruiting Afghan youth and former security personnel (through training, passports, or financial incentives), this could create a novel security threat and chain of destabilizing effects in the region. There are also ethical, legal and human-rights risks for the individuals who are involuntarily drawn into conflict. Multiple open-source reports indicate such recruitment and transfers were observed in Afghanistan during 2024–2025.
Expansion of information warfare and cyber influence
Disinformation campaigns and cyber operations are effective tools for distorting the regional political environment and spreading anti-Western narratives. These operations can greatly influence elections, migration policy debates, and the credibility of reporting — and should be addressed within intelligence and cyber-security reporting.
Reconstitution of terrorist groups
Reports and indicators of a resurgence or presence of al-Qaeda and other jihadi networks — if verified would pose a serious threat to regional and international security. Recent Security Council and specialized center reports have already highlighted these challenges in advance.
Strategic threats and sensitivities for Europe, NATO, and the international community policy, diplomatic and intelligence recommendations
New migration waves:
Large-scale forced returns and the cumulative effect of recent repatriations have left millions of Afghans without stable housing, employment, or security. This will place new pressures on European systems and risks politicizing migration in ways that exacerbate domestic tensions.
Security shifts and intelligence friction:
Increased regional intelligence activity risks sudden incidents, proxy operations and broader instability, creating complex military and cyber challenges for NATO and European allies.
Legal and judicial measures: necessity for accountability
The ICC’s arrest requests against certain Taliban leaders underline that international justice mechanisms may pursue practical measures in response to human-rights breaches. Although enforcement is complex, ICC rulings and international jurisprudence have become part of the global agenda and should be used as instruments of political pressure.
Specific recommended policies practical and political measures
To prevent Afghanistan’s crisis from becoming a broader international crisis, the following measures are necessary:
Full political and operational support for ICC and UN mechanisms:
Increase diplomatic pressure and operational cooperation to facilitate enforcement of arrest orders and related measures.
Protection of civil society:
Establish programs for protection, funding, emergency shelter, and evacuation for educated professionals, journalists and civil-society activists.
Prevent forced returns:
The European community and international agencies must take strong diplomatic and legal action against forced expulsions and ensure UNHCR and IOM have unfettered access.
Demand intelligence transparency:
States involved in Afghan affairs should disclose, to the extent feasible and through international channels, the scope and purpose of their operations — especially regarding reciprocal intelligence arrangements.
Strengthen regional security mechanisms:
Develop joint intelligence, assistance and humanitarian contingency plans for Central Asia and Europe to prevent sudden destabilization and to manage incidents effectively if they occur.
Urgent Need for Preventing Further Deterioration
Afghanistan currently stands at the epicenter of a new strategic rivalry among global powers. If the international community remains indifferent and limits its engagement to symbolic gestures, the repercussions of this crisis will not remain confined to the region but will also reverberate across Europe and among NATO allies.
Protecting human rights, responsibly managing the migration crisis, and ensuring accountability have become urgent and essential imperatives. Afghanistan is no longer merely a domestic or regional issue; it has become a theater for the strategic ambitions and geopolitical competition of major powers.
If Europe, NATO, and the broader international community fail to adopt a unified, lawful, and humanitarian strategy, civilian casualties, regional instability, and the erosion of international norms will persist.
Practical, transparent, and coordinated measures—anchored in the rule of law, humanitarian assistance, and security cooperation—are indispensable for resolving this crisis. The Law and Justice Civil Movement urges global actors to assume collective, legal, and moral responsibility to safeguard the rights of the Afghan people.
Exploitation of Afghan Youth
In provinces such as Khost, networks operating under the guise of “tourism companies” have been actively deceiving Afghan youth, sending them to Russia under false promises of work or travel visas. These young men are subsequently recruited into the ranks of the Russian army and deployed to the war in Ukraine.
According to these deceptive contracts, recruits receive two months of training and promises of a monthly salary ranging from 450,000 to 650,000 rubles. In reality, they are dispatched to the frontlines as expendable soldiers. Many lose their lives, and the promises of housing, high salaries, and family documentation turn out to be part of a dangerous and exploitative scheme.
Taliban Rule and Human Rights Violations
Since regaining power, the Taliban have severely restricted women’s rights to education and employment. Forced marriages, the killing of girls, and violations of personal and family privacy represent actions that directly contradict Afghan cultural values and international human rights standards.
These practices not only weaken the social and moral fabric of Afghan society but have also transformed Afghanistan from a cohesive social order into a hub of repression and violence.
Economic Catastrophe and the Tragedy of Refugees
Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented economic collapse. Widespread unemployment, child deaths due to hunger, the sale of daughters by desperate families, and a new wave of mass migration illustrate the depth of the crisis.
The forced deportation of Afghan refugees by Iran and Pakistan, killings at border zones, daily expulsions of thousands, and the drowning of migrants attempting to cross by sea are among the most tragic dimensions of this humanitarian disaster.
Afghanistan at the Frontline of Global Rivalries
Afghanistan today is not only dealing with internal strife but has become the focal point of global and regional competition:
Russia: Recruiting Afghan youth to supplement its war efforts in Ukraine.
Iran and Pakistan: Contributing to humanitarian suffering through forced deportations and persecution of Afghan refugees.
China: Seeking access to Afghanistan’s gold and mineral resources.
Europe and the United States: Struggling to contain terrorism while withholding political recognition of the Taliban regime.
This dynamic has turned Afghanistan into a mere instrument of international power politics—while it is the Afghan people who bear the brunt of this exploitation. The country stands at a historical crossroads, with its future threatened by global rivalries and internal injustices.
Recommendations by the Law and Justice Civil Movement
The United Nations and international organizations must halt the forced deportation of Afghan refugees.
Global pressure on the Taliban regarding women’s and girls’ education and employment must be intensified.
A joint mechanism should be urgently established to prevent the recruitment of Afghan youth into foreign conflicts.
The international community should provide immediate assistance to mitigate Afghanistan’s economic collapse.
Regional powers must replace geopolitical rivalry with support for peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and Afghanistan’s Future
Following the August 2021 political transition and the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, Afghanistan once again plunged into political uncertainty and insecurity.
Recent reports by the United Nations Monitoring Team, Western research centers, and regional sources reveal that Al-Qaeda has reestablished organized operations in Afghanistan. The group is reportedly active in around 12 provinces, equipped with modern technologies, including drones, for intelligence and offensive purposes.
It is alleged that key leaders, including Hamza bin Laden and Saif al-Adl, are reorganizing the network with tacit support from elements within the current Afghan authorities.
Such developments directly contradict the Taliban’s commitments under the Doha Agreement, which stipulates that Afghan soil must not be used for terrorist activities against other nations. If verified, these reports represent a clear violation of international law and the Doha framework.
International Legal Responsibility
Under international law, any governing authority that exercises effective control over a territory is obligated to prevent the use of its soil for terrorist activities. The UN Charter, the Geneva Conventions, and the International Law Commission’s Draft Articles on State Responsibility clearly prohibit states from allowing their territories to serve as bases for armed or terrorist actions against others.
If the Taliban regime ignores Al-Qaeda’s resurgence, it constitutes not only a breach of international obligations but also a grave threat to human rights, global peace, and regional stability.
Human Rights Situation and Legal Demands
After four decades of war, the Afghan people are once again exposed to the danger of terrorism’s resurgence. The reemergence of Al-Qaeda poses a direct threat to women’s education, freedom of expression, and civil society activities.
International human rights instruments such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) unequivocally affirm that no political or religious ideology justifies violations of fundamental freedoms.
Accordingly, Afghans have the right to live in safety, to receive education, and to participate in civic life without fear of repression or violence.
Need for International Cooperation and Transparent Investigation
If Al-Qaeda’s activities within Taliban-controlled territories are verified, the international community should invoke the UN Security Council to initiate transparent investigations.
Under international norms, the principle of Peaceful Intervention allows for collective action when a governing authority fails to uphold its obligations.
The Taliban must demonstrate through action—not words—that they are not supporting terrorist networks but are instead committed to global peace and the security of the Afghan people. Silence or negligence will only further isolate Afghanistan diplomatically and economically.
Official Recommendations of the Law and Justice Civil Movement
Decisive Action Against Terrorism: The Taliban must publicly and unequivocally distance themselves from all terrorist groups and take verifiable measures against them.
Adherence to International Law: The Doha Agreement, UN Charter, and international human rights conventions should serve as the foundation of Afghanistan’s domestic and foreign policies.
Protection of Civil and Human Freedoms: Women’s education, freedom of expression, and the operation of civil society must be guaranteed.
Acceptance of International Monitoring: UN and regional observers should be granted full access to assess security, human rights, and counterterrorism compliance.
Advancing Peace and Stability: Afghanistan must transition from war and extremism toward peace, stability, and legitimate governance, free from terrorist influence.
The Role of Regional Meetings and Autocratic Figures
Recent meetings held in Islamabad brought together figures who have historically failed to heal the nation’s wounds. The Law and Justice Civil Movement reiterates that it supports no political faction; rather, it stands as an independent civic movement founded on the will of the Afghan people.
The movement calls for the establishment of an inclusive, constitution-based government that guarantees public freedoms and genuine peace—a process that will remain unattainable without sincere international cooperation.
The Role of Diplomats and Support for Women’s Rights
Examples from the global arena demonstrate the importance of principled diplomacy:
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland addressed the United Nations, aligning with leading European voices on women’s rights.
The EU’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Mr. Gilles Bertrand, an experienced French diplomat with over two decades of service within EU institutions and prior leadership in the EU Delegation in Kabul, was appointed to coordinate European engagement on Afghanistan.
The Law and Justice Civil Movement calls on the international community to support Afghan women and girls in education, employment, and representation—enabling them to carry Afghanistan’s name forward in diplomacy and global engagement. Sadly, schools and workplaces remain closed to them under the current regime.
Internet Restrictions and Human Rights Violations
The Taliban’s restriction of internet access is not merely a technical act—it disrupts international communication, causes severe economic harm, and further isolates Afghan society.
When religion and ideology are used as tools of governance, restricting freedoms becomes a mechanism of power consolidation.
The Law and Justice Civil Movement therefore urges the Taliban to ensure the nationwide restoration of telecommunications and fiber-optic internet services, as these are vital for human rights, international relations, and national stability.
Pathways to Peace and International Solidarity
The Law and Justice Civil Movement emphasizes that the protection of Afghan freedom, women’s education, and human rights can only be achieved through genuine international cooperation and the formation of an inclusive government.
The international community must recognize the true scope of Afghan suffering and take concrete measures to safeguard their rights—transforming Afghanistan into a nation of peace, economic stability, and diplomatic dignity.
Given Afghanistan’s strategic position amid global rivalries, inaction by the international community would not only endanger Afghanistan but also threaten the stability of Europe and NATO allies.
Justice, education, and human dignity are the three essential pillars for Afghanistan’s survival and future.
Neutral human rights reports continue to document abductions, torture, and arbitrary detention of former government and security personnel. The Law and Justice Civil Movement calls for impartial national and international investigations to ensure justice and accountability.
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