The European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR, has published the results of its latest survey.
The survey tested European attitudes towards rearmament, defence, and the war in Ukraine in a world of Trump 2.0.
It comes just days after US President Trump halved his deadline to Russia for a peace deal in Ukraine to ‘10-12 days’ – a hint towards his wearing patience over the war in Europe – and divergences of opinion, between Washington and Brussels, on whether the EU is now committed to purchasing significant amounts of US military equipment as part of the recently agreed EU and US trade deal.
The survey says that the EU “once a peace project, is fast-becoming a war project-a process triggered by Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
Significant populations, it says, polled fear worsening conflict, and, accordingly, favour increased military spending and the roll-out of other defensive preparations.
It says majorities in Poland (70%), Denmark (70%), the UK (57%), Estonia (56%) and Portugal (54%), support (either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’) the idea of increasing national defence spending.
Pluralities in Romania (50%), Spain (46%), France (45%), Hungary (45%), Germany (47%), and Switzerland (40%) also indicated support on this point, says the survey.
The survey says that majorities in Europe favour reintroducing mandatory military service.
This is particularly true in the Weimar trio of France, Germany and Poland, where majorities (62%, 53% and 51%, respectively) support reintroducing mandatory military service. Those within the age groupings 60-69 and 70+ are keenest on the idea of mandatory military service (with 54% and 58%, respectively, indicating their support).
Despite talk of the need for greater EU autonomy, there is scepticism about whether Europe can effectively decouple from the U.S , it also says.
Respondents in Denmark and Portugal are the most optimistic about achieving this, with 52% and 50% of citizens, respectively, believing it is ‘possible’ for the EU to become independent of the U.S. on defence and security in the next five years. Scepticism is most pronounced in Italy and Hungary, where 54% and 51%, respectively, see EU autonomy on security and defence as ‘very difficult’ or ‘practically impossible’ to achieve in the next five years. Elsewhere, respondents are torn, including in Romania (45% think it is possible vs. 39% think it is difficult or impossible), France (44% vs. 39%), Germany (44% vs. 45%), Poland (38% vs. 48%), Estonia (41% vs. 49%) and Spain (43% vs. 47%).
The poll says also that many in Europe support defending Ukraine, even if the US abandons the country.
ECFR’s dataset shows that a majority or plurality of respondents in eleven of the twelve countries surveyed are against the idea of Europe withdrawing its military support for Ukraine, pushing Ukraine to give up on territory occupied by Russia, or lifting economic sanctions on Russia – irrespective of a U.S. policy shift across these points.
Respondents in Denmark (78%), Portugal (74%), the UK (73%), and Estonia (68%) are the staunchest supporters of continued military support in the event of a U.S. withdrawal. Similarly, those in Denmark (72%), Portugal (71%), the United Kingdom (69%), and Estonia (68%) are the most opposed to the idea of pushing Ukraine to give up occupied territory, if the U.S. adopted such an approach; and are also the strongest opponents of lifting economic sanctions against Russia, if the U.S. behaved in this manner (Denmark, 77%; the UK, 71%; Estonia, 69%; and Poland, 68%).
