Belgium Heads to Polls: Federal, European, and Regional Elections

Brussels (Brussels Morning) – About 8.5 million Belgians will vote in federal, European, and regional elections on Sunday. Surveys by RTL and Cluster17 show MR leading in Brussels, with PTB making significant gains, and PS losing ground.

On Sunday, about 8.5 million Belgians will vote in federal, European and regional elections. The latest surveys have indicated the possible winners and losers. Authorized by RTL and conducted by Cluster17, the survey was performed online from 28 to 31 May 2024 among a sample of 2,641 people aged 18 and over. 

How Are Brussels Residents Voting in European Elections?

For voting preference in the European elections for Brussels residents, Francophone centre-right liberals MR (22.4%) are just onwards of the radical left PTB (20.2%). Both parties are anticipated by pollsters to make significant progress at the expense of the Francophone socialist PS party (15.5%), which has witnessed their polling lead ebb away in the Belgian capital since 2019.

The falling French-speaking greens, Ecolo (14.5%), are in fourth position, followed by French-speaking centrist groups Les Engagés (7.4%) and DéFi (5.7%). Several groups are around 1-3% on European voting preferences in Brussels, including the two Flemish nationalist parties, N-VA and Vlaams Belang. In Brussels, both French-speaking and Dutch-speaking partakers stand, with voters being capable of choosing their electoral college.

In voting intentions among Belgians for the federal elections, the same dynamic plays out. MR’s healthy lead (22,9%) has been maintained, tailed again by PTB (19.8%) – who would be up by a staggering 7.5 percentage points in comparison to their 2019 federal election result.

How Are Flemish Nationalist Parties Performing in Recent Polls?

In the north of Belgium, the two Flemish nationalist groups still appear to be the only go-betweens in the race. Far-right Vlaams Belang (27.2%) are still about ten percentage points ahead of right-wing N-VA (19.6%). N-VA were in contemporary years the largest Flemish party up until 2019, when they were frog-jumped by Vlaams Belang.

Flemish socialists Vooruit (13%) are relishing a resurgence and would win bronze, but are still very behind Bart De Wever’s N-VA and are hotly followed by the Flemish Christian Democrats CD&V (12%). Radical left PVDA (9.3%) are relishing their rise in popularity in the north, just forward of Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo‘s liberal Open VLD, (9.2%) who have been supported by the Prime Minister’s very visible role during the Belgian EU Presidency.

Flemish Green party Groen (6.9%) persists in being unable to overcome the damage from the nuclear debate which engaged Flanders, and they have paid a heavy price for it. The margin of mistake in Flanders is up to 3%. Importantly, all parties, including N-VA, have ruled out operating with Vlaams Belang. This is according to the Belgian political principle of the cordon sanitaire around the far-right, in place since 1989.