Brussels, 1 October, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) – A strengthening El Niño is heading towards a potentially exceptional peak as Europe prepares for winter, with the latest El Niño outlook pointing to continued intensification through the end of 2026. European seasonal forecasts meanwhile favour a generally mild winter, although meteorologists stress that individual cold spells and severe weather remain possible.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific and is expected to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of the year. Its September assessment put the likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.
Pacific warming drives powerful El Niño
Evidence of intensification is also coming from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Its Climate Prediction Center said on 10 September that El Niño had strengthened during the previous month, with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Niño-3.4 index reached 1.8°C in August.
NOAA assessed the probability of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27 at more than 90%. Its September forecast also put the probability of El Niño conditions continuing through the December-January-February period at effectively 100%.
WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update similarly forecasts further strengthening, with the Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly projected to average about 3.6°C during September-November and the intensification trajectory expected to peak around November and December.
What could El Niño mean for Europe’s winter?
The latest El Niño outlook does not mean Europe is guaranteed an exceptionally warm winter.
El Niño begins in the tropical Pacific, and its influence on European weather is more indirect than in many Pacific-facing regions. Europe’s winter conditions are also shaped by North Atlantic circulation and other atmospheric patterns.
However, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said its early winter indications favour mild conditions. Its September seasonal forecast showed above-average temperatures across virtually all European land areas for winter as a whole.
Copernicus also indicated wetter-than-average conditions across most of Europe, apart from areas towards the continent’s southern and northern edges.
Seasonal forecasts represent probabilities averaged over months rather than predictions of specific storms, cold snaps or snowfall.
WMO calls for early preparedness
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts showed an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño would persist through February 2027.
She said the unusually high confidence reflected strong agreement across international climate prediction centres.
A very strong event can alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, potentially increasing risks from flooding, drought and extreme heat in vulnerable regions.
Why Europe’s winter forecast matters
The developing climate pattern will be closely watched across the European Union because winter temperatures and precipitation can affect energy demand, agriculture, transport, water management and emergency planning.
A milder seasonal average could influence heating demand, but it does not rule out disruptive periods of freezing weather. The El Niño outlook should therefore be treated as part of a broader seasonal picture rather than a precise forecast for Brussels or individual European countries.
What happens next?
NOAA is scheduled to publish its next ENSO diagnostic assessment on 8 October, providing updated observations and probabilities for the event’s expected strength.
Copernicus also updates its seasonal forecast products each month. Those updates will provide increasingly important guidance as Europe moves towards December and the Pacific event approaches its expected late-2026 peak.
