When it comes to the ongoing debate surrounding the EU and China, all eyes on are October.
That is when the EU is due to next discuss the thorny issue of trade with its Chinese counterparts.
The European Union’s next round of trade talks with China is, in fact, shaping up to be one of the most consequential tests yet of Brussels’ willingness to defend European industry.
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has, according to media reports, warned that Beijing must deliver “tangible results” by October or face pressure for tougher measures, setting a clear political deadline ahead of his planned trip to China and a mid October EU leaders’ summit.
Speaking in Berlin earlier this month, the official was quoted as saying, “What we definitely need to bring back are clear pointers, the sense of travel where we are going, to have a couple of pilot schemes where I can prove for a certain group of products that this consultation, this cooperation works and that we believe we can develop the mechanics further to address this issue.”
The message is significant because the talks next month are no longer being framed simply as another attempt to improve market access but a test of whether the EU can turn years of concern about China’s trade practices into measurable action.
In June, Šefčovič, who is the European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security and Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency, and Wang Wentao, China’s Minister of Commerce, held the first meeting of the EU-China Trade and Investment Consultations (TIC) in Brussels.
Both sides agreed that increased market access measures and initiatives can “contribute to the balancing of the trade relationship.”
They acknowledged the need to strengthen the EU-China Export Control Dialogue and agreed on the need for further facilitation efforts aimed at maintaining the stability of global industrial supply chain
Looking ahead to October’s meeting, the numbers explain the urgency of things.
China’s trade surplus with the EU reached €360.6 billion in 2025, up 15 percent from the previous year, and widened by another 9 percent in the first half of 2026.
Three priorities have been identified for the talks: reducing the surge in Chinese exports, removing barriers faced by European companies in China, and securing more predictable access to critical supplies such as rare earths and legacy chips. Chinese exports of machinery, batteries, electric and hybrid vehicles, chemicals, plastics and textiles have all risen sharply, while it is argued that much of the pressure is linked to excess industrial capacity and state support.
That pressure is increasingly visible across European industry with electric vehicles the clearest example. Chinese car sales in the EU rose by 63 percent in the first half of 2026, reaching nearly 549,000 vehicles and close to 10 percent of the market. European manufacturers are being asked to compete not only on price, but against supply chains and production systems that Brussels itself has argued benefit from substantial government support. Similar concerns have already pushed the bloc to use countervailing duties, including in its review of JD.com’s proposed €2.2 billion takeover of German electronics retailer Ceconomy.
The Union is now signaling that its approach could extend beyond tariffs and investigations. New proposals on public procurement would give European authorities more room to favor domestic goods and services, while requiring greater weight to be placed on quality, sustainability and local supply chains rather than simply choosing the lowest-cost bid. With public procurement representing roughly 15 percent of EU GDP, it has been argued by some that the rules could become a major industrial policy tool, particularly in sectors where subsidized Chinese firms have made rapid inroads.
The same debate reaches less obvious markets too. A February 2026 Fraunhofer IIS study found that around 90 percent of e-cigarettes imported into the EU come from China and estimated that irregular trade accounts for roughly 48 percent of Europe’s e-cigarette market, worth €6.6 billion.
The study identifies Luxembourg, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands as key European “gateway countries”.
It cautions that legal retailers complying with taxes and product rules can face a substantial price disadvantage against irregular imports, showing how weak enforcement can become an industrial competitiveness problem as well as a regulatory one.
It is but one reason why the October talks matter beyond the immediate trade deficit. After years talking about de-risking, strategic autonomy and reducing dependencies on China many argue the EU now needs to show what those ideas mean in practice.
Šefčovič has acknowledged that one trip will not rebalance the relationship, but he says he wants the process to begin.
In Berlin, he reportedly said, “It’s very clear that if we will not be able to demonstrate that this way works there will be huge political pressure to look for other solutions because it would be detrimental to the future of the European economy.”
The commissioner told Euronews that the EU is looking to finalise a “diversification instrument” designed with China in mind.
If Beijing offers meaningful movement on market access, export pressures and critical supplies, October could mark the beginning of a more balanced relationship. If not, the political pressure for stronger trade defenses will intensify.
Either way, the October talks pose a question European manufacturers have been asking for years: when Chinese competition threatens European production, how far is the EU prepared to go to defend its own market?
